Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s five-game slate.
Best bet-Seth Jarvis Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +105
Seth Jarvis over 2.5 shots on goal
The Carolina Hurricanes are 8-2-0 over the last 10 games, despite the fact that no skater on the team has more than eight points in that span. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour has always liked to roll his lines fairly evenly, which works well for a side that likes to pressure the puck more aggressively than any other team in the league and often plays with the lead.
Friday’s matchup versus the Florida Panthers should garner a little extra attention from the Hurricanes, given that the Panthers have knocked off the Hurricanes in three consecutive postseasons. It seems likely that Carolina’s top trio of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis will garner greater usage than usual in most game scripts.
Jarvis put up 16 points in 15 playoff games last season and feels like arguably the Hurricanes’ most reliable skater in this type of matchup. He’s generated 3.6 shots per game over his last 10 games played and recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in seven of those matchups, while averaging 5.5 shot attempts per game in that span.
This prop is not typically priced at plus money, but it is today based on what is perceived to be a worse matchup for shot volume. However, over the last month of play, the Panthers have allowed 28.94 shots against per 60 and are quietly playing a very high-event brand of hockey.
In a large sample of 219.8 minutes of play, Carolina’s top trio holds a 60.4% expected goal share and has generated 79.99 shot attempts per 60. Head-to-head minutes with Gustav Forsling’s pairing is not ideal, but it still seems reasonable to believe Jarvis’s unit can spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone in this matchup.
Considering his roles on a highly effective top line as well as the top power play, Jarvis’s recent shot volume seems sustainable, which has me believing +105 is a great price to back a bet that has hit in seven of the last 10 games versus a Panthers side that has been allowing a fairly high amount of shots.
Best bet-Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +135
Nico Hischier over 2.5 shots on goal
It’s a little dull to continue outlining the same play for the fourth time since Jack Hughes went down with injury, but it’s hard for me to see why the price for Hischier to record three shots is still up at +135. We outlined this bet ahead of Wednesday’s matchup versus a Golden Knights side that is elite defensively, and Hischier recorded five shots on goal from eight attempts.
The Devils have played 17 games since Hughes suffered a freak injury to his finger, and Hischier has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in 10 of those 17 matchups.
And as we touched on Wednesday, this prop currently looks a little better than it has during other periods of Hughes’s absence, as head coach Sheldon Keefe has stacked his top three remaining forwards on one line, with Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Dawson Mercer skating together on a highly talented top unit.
Hischier has averaged just under 23 minutes over the last two games, and it seems likely that he will continue to garner hefty usage given the team’s current lack of depth up front. Bratt is one of the better offensive drivers in the NHL and generally likes to look for the open man as opposed to taking borderline shots, and as a result, this prop looks more appealing when the two are skating together.
By no means will this prop hit every time, but Hischier’s recent shot volume seems sustainable enough to believe a price of +135 for him to record three or more shots in Friday’s matchup holds strong value.
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