In this article I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s hefty 12-game NHL slate based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks.
Five of the seven Canadian NHL teams will be in action Saturday, and we will also touch on game notes from those matchups.
NHL Best bets for Nov. 22
Washington Capitals moneyline: -115
Capitals moneyline vs. Lightning
The Washington Capitals will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday evening. This is already the third matchup of the season between these Eastern Conference rivals, who have split the previous two meetings though the Lightning have earned one more point from those matchups.
Though the Lightning have been hanging in quite well recently, their defensive core is currently quite depleted, as Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Max Crozier all missed Thursday’s matchup versus the Edmonton Oilers. Cernak is listed as day-to-day and is likely to return for this matchup, but even if he is to return, what’s left of the unit still looks fairly shaky.
At Friday’s practice J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh skated as the top pairing, Charle-Edouard D’Astous skated alongside Erik Cernak, while Emil Lilleberg and Steven Santini formed the team’s third pairing.
The Capitals’ even-strength play has looked razor-sharp all season long, but they have been marred by poor finishing and consistently poor special teams play. Over the last six games they have played to a record of 4-1-1, and the ‘eye-test’ would suggest that they looked quite good in five of those six matchups.
They quietly hold one of the league’s better defensive cores, which will always be the backbone of the team. Washington’s blue-line does an excellent job of transitioning plays up the ice and getting in on the attack offensively, which was a major reason for their Eastern Conference-leading total of 111 points last season.
Several key forwards seem to be trending in the right direction, and the team has started to finish off scoring chances at a more standard rate to capitalize on what has been a strong process all year long. Alex Ovechkin is on fire with seven goals and three assists over the last six games, while Connor McMichael and Ryan Leonard have looked excellent playing together on a talented third unit.
Following the news that Connor Hellebuyck would be sidelined for 4-6 weeks, Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson is now the betting favourite to win the Vezina Trophy. Thompson holds a +13.5 GSAx rating and .920 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.
Considering the state of Tampa Bay’s defensive core, the well-rounded game that the Capitals have displayed recently and the strength of Thompson in goal, I’m happy to back the Capitals at -115 and won’t be surprised if that price is gone closer to puck-drop.
Montreal Canadiens moneyline: -140
Canadiens moneyline vs. Maple Leafs
Both the Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs limp into this high-profile showdown at the Bell Centre in poor form and have gotten poor results recently both where it counts and in terms of underlying metrics.
It’s been years since the Canadiens have been this heavily favoured in any matchup between these bitter rivals, and when these teams met on opening night in Toronto this season, the Leafs closed at -160. However, the huge disparity in price seems well warranted.
The Leafs are currently without numerous key skaters, such as Auston Matthews, Chris Tanev, Anthony Stolarz, Brandon Carlo, Nicolas Roy, and potentially still Matthew Knies. Even including the games when the Leafs had a healthier lineup, their overall level of play has been quite shaky this season, a point that anyone that follows the NHL somewhat consistently will know.
The Leafs rank 27th in expected goal share this season and have allowed 31.39 shots against per 60, which is the second-highest rate in the NHL. Their defensive core has struggled mightily to create controlled zone exits out of the defensive zone, while their bottom six has been highly ineffective.
Stolarz’s absence has actually not been very relevant because Joseph Woll has offered a higher level of play than Stolarz this season, but even with that in mind, this spot looks pretty dicey for the Leafs.
A scary thought for Leafs fans, at least for the time being while their injury report is so bad, is that they have seemingly brought a high level of urgency into the first two matchups of the week and played up to their current potential, yet split a pair of games which went past regulation versus the St. Louis Blues and Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Leafs have outscored opponents 16-6 in Matthews’s even-strength minutes this season. Though Matthews has not produced as expected, the fact that Toronto had so greatly outscored opponents in his minutes this season clearly illustrates his importance, and taking that away from a team that has already looked very unconvincing is quite concerning.
The Canadiens have lost five straight matchups, and I’m not truly that sold on pumping up head coach Martin St. Louis’s side ahead of this matchup. Montreal currently has five skaters on the IR, but those absences include fewer true needle-movers than Toronto is currently missing, and as a result the Canadiens roster still looks much better on paper currently.
Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens still hold a 51.29% expected goal share at even strength. Their power play has been struggling, but it’s logical to think that a top unit featuring Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson and Nick Suzuki is capable of trending upwards moving forward.
Both Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes have been struggling of late but were above-average goaltenders last season and could stabilize moving forward.
The Canadiens haven’t been overly convincing either recently, but it feels like the Leafs’ current troubles are more legitimate, particularly until they at least get Matthews back in the fold. At -140, I’m happy to back the Canadiens getting right Saturday by taking advantage of the Leafs’ highly depleted lineup.
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
| Oilers moneyline odds | +115 |
| Panthers moneyline odds | –135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-130), Under 5.5 goals (+110) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- A highly intriguing matchup here, being a rematch of the last two Stanley Cup Finals. The Oilers have obviously been struggling to find their form this season, and a win over the Panthers would be a small silver lining to wrap up a four-game road trip.
- The Oilers are 0-2-1 in the first three games of their road trip and 3-5-2 over the last 10 games. They offered a much sharper performance in Tampa Bay on Thursday night while playing the second leg of a tough back-to-back but ultimately fell 2-1 in overtime.
- As the Panthers are still without Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Eetu Luostarinen among others, this won’t exactly be a true rematch of the Cup Final. Edmonton currently holds more high-end talent in the lineup, but the Panthers have displayed a significantly sharper overall team game of late.
- The Panthers will probably start Sergei Bobrovsky in this matchup, but one point I’ve been keen to make is that backup Daniil Tarasov has played at a very high level this season, which is important from a betting perspective as the lines have generally moved against Florida following confirmation that Tarasov would start.
- Tarasov holds a +1.3 GSAx and .902 save percentage in five appearances this season, and informed Florida reporters have rated his play quite highly.
Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks
| Senators moneyline odds | -160 |
| Sharks moneyline odds | +135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-135), Under 5.5 goals (+115) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- Senators captain Brady Tkachuk is close to returning to the lineup and is with the team on their lengthy seven-game road trip. Thomas Chabot will remain sidelined, while Ridly Greig is listed as day-to-day.
- At the time of writing, the total is priced at -135 for over 5.5 goals. My belief is it will likely close at roughly -150 for over 5.5 goals, and I nearly included the over as my best bet, and would recommend waiting until puck-drop if you intend to bet the under.
- One reason oddsmakers have tabbed a low total for a Sharks game has been the incredible play of Sharks goaltender Yaraslav Askarov of late. After a poor start to the season, Askarov is now 7-3-0 over his last 10 games played and holds a .931 save percentage in that span. He was once viewed as the best goaltender prospect in hockey and is starting to live up to the hype.
- Macklin Celebrini ranks third in the NHL with 31 points. Considering the strength of his team and linemates, there’s a legitimate argument that he might be the league’s MVP at this point. Nathan MacKinnon has four more points, but is also typically on the ice with another elite forward in Martin Necas, as well as borderline Hart Trophy candidate Cale Makar. Celebrini is obviously much less likely to continue his current level of production than MacKinnon, which is certainly part of the reason he is still priced at 16-1 to win the Hart.
Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames
| Stars moneyline odds | -160 |
| Flames moneyline odds | +135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-130), Under 5.5 goals (+110) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- As someone who foolishly thought the Dallas Stars were a good bet to win the division, they have not quite looked as fundamentally sharp as other Cup contenders such as the Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, but they have been able to score their way out of trouble while both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have been sharp in goal, and are 13-5-3 as a result.
- Over the last 10 games, the Stars hold a 15.71% shooting percentage, which is the highest mark in the league by a wide margin. They have much more skill up front than the majority of NHL teams, but it’s still highly unlikely that such clinical finishing will continue much longer.
- The Flames are at the polar opposite end of the spectrum in terms of their specific strengths and weaknesses, and results relative to their underlying numbers. Calgary holds the lowest shooting percentage in the NHL this season, and lacks meaningful scoring talent front.
- It wouldn’t be surprising if the Flames are able to generate a strong output of chances in this matchup and even hold more of the overall run of play on home ice, but that certainly may not mean a winning result versus a clinical Stars side.