Following a league-mandated off day for American Thanksgiving on Thursday, the NHL is offering a mammoth 15-game slate Friday. In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the late portion of Friday’s NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
For the information and my best bet regarding the 10 games beginning prior to 5:00 p.m. ET, please refer to my early slate breakdown.
Best bet-Mammoth vs. Stars: Over 6 goals -105
Mammoth vs. Stars over 6 goals
Though the Utah Mammoth have averaged just 2.7 goals per game over the last 10 games, there’s still a lot to like about the offensive talent littered among their top two units, and I think we will see them find greater production in the near future. In the month of November, they rank 13th in xGF/60 in even-strength play and looked sharp offensively versus the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday but generated just three goals thanks to a strong performance from Canadiens goaltender Jakub Dobes.
From a similar vein, I’m not sold that the Stars have been as sharp defensively as their recent results suggest, or that they are currently a true defensive juggernaut with Thomas Harley and Ilya Lyubushkin sidelined. The Stars have allowed 3.27 xGA/60 over the last five games, which have come versus a very soft group of opposing offences.
The Mammoth are a sneaky candidate to expose a Dallas side that currently appears to be overrated defensively, but I’m not sold on Utah’s ability to shut down a Stars side featuring a plethora of high-end scoring talent capable of finishing chances at a clinical rate. Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka holds a save percentage of just .886 this season, and that’s a big concern entering a matchup with a potent Stars side.
This seems to be a sneaky-good spot for both sides to generate three or more goals, and I see value betting the game to go over its total of 6.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals
| Leafs moneyline odds | +135 |
| Capitals moneyline odds | -160 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115) |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Though the process was not exactly convincing, the Maple Leafs earned a critical win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday, and there are some positive developments going on surrounding the team. Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and Nicolas Roy all returned to action Wednesday, while Joseph Woll continued his strong start to the season following a personal leave of absence and now holds a +2.7 GSAx in five appearances this season.
- Led by Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson, the Capitals have gotten more production from their blue line than any other team in the league. Over the last four games, Chychrun has scored five goals while Carlson has tallied two goals and three assists.
- William Nylander is listed as day-to-day but is expected to play in this matchup.
- With Nic Dowd and Pierre-Luc Dubois currently sidelined, Justin Sourdif has been given the opportunity to center the Capitals’ second line and has been surprisingly excellent in the role thus far. The Capitals paid what was thought to be a high-price for the young forward in the offseason, giving up two draft picks, but it’s now looking like another sharp move from a front office that can seemingly do no wrong in recent years.
Winnipeg Jets @ Carolina Hurricanes
| Jets moneyline odds | +180 |
| Hurricanes moneyline odds | -220 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115) |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- I don’t like to get to bogged down in desperation narratives, but the Jets certainly may offer a higher level of urgency than the Hurricanes in this spot. They are 0-3-0 in their first three games since losing Connor Hellebuyck to injury and suddenly are in real danger of missing the playoffs after winning the Presidents’ Trophy last season.
- Aside from the potential that this is a sleepy spot for the Hurricanes, it does seem likely to expect that they will carry the majority of the play at even strength, as we saw when these teams met last Friday in Winnipeg. The Hurricanes emerged as deserving 4-3 victors from that matchup.
- I bet on Nikolaj Ehlers to record over 2.5 shots on goal (as articled) in that matchup and was one of many bettors that was ultimately disappointed with his output of one shot. While he did not seem interested in firing borderline shots in that game, he did look quite involved and ultimately was rewarded with a point on Andrei Svechnikov’s power play goal.
- The Jets have leaned extremely heavily upon Hellebuyck to steal games this season, which is a key reason his absence looks so daunting. Eric Comrie (who may not start this game) is a better-than-average secondary option, but he’s been asked to handle a difficult workload this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets
| Penguins moneyline odds | +120 |
| Blue Jackets moneyline odds | -140 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Blue Jackets won the first meeting of the season between these Metropolitan Division rivals 5-4 in a shootout. Columbus poured 41 shots on goal in the game. The Blue Jackets went 2-1-0 versus the Penguins last season, averaging 4.00 goals per game.
- Kirill Marchenko missed the Blue Jackets’ morning skate and has been ruled out for this matchup. Kent Johnson is set to remain on the top line and top power play as a result, making him an enticing option at -105 to record a point.
- Evgeni Malkin leads all Penguins skaters with 24 points in 22 games this season.
- There was talk Thursday suggesting the Penguins were close to completing a trade that would send Tristan Jarry and Parker Wotherspoon to the Edmonton Oilers. Wotherspoon has been a highly underrated skater this season, and a key reason that the Penguins have been surprisingly successful in playing to a record of 11-6-5.
Nashville Predators @ Chicago Blackhawks
| Predators moneyline odds | -110 |
| Blackhawks moneyline odds | -110 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Predators’ recent analytical profile is better than you would expect given their record, and oddsmakers’ models likely view their play in a similar light given that this game is priced as a pick’em. The other factor in that is that Roman Josi has looked really good since returning to the lineup, which moves the needle quite significantly given that he is capable of playing two-fifths of any matchup.
- While the Predators’ control of the overall play has been respectable, Juuse Saros has quietly not been great for two and a half straight years, while the team continues to struggle to finish scoring chances at a standard rate.
- The Blackhawks were on the wrong end of yet another controversial call, which ultimately determined the outcome of the game in Wednesday’s loss on home ice versus the Minnesota Wild.
- With a goal and an assist on Wednesday, Connor Bedard continues to make a strong push for a spot on Canada’s Olympic team. He ranks fourth in the NHL with 34 points and arguably still has less help than any skater to have hit the 25-point mark. He is priced at -270 to record a point in this matchup.
- I’ve been high on betting on Josi to record over 2.5 shots on goal since his return to the lineup, but oddsmakers have moved the price for three or more shots down to -135, after it was set at +115 in his first game back.
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