NHL Odds, Betting Insights, & Picks For December 18

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from the marquee matchups of Thursday’s 10-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.

Pick—Seattle Kraken vs Calgary Flames: Flames Regulation Win -105

It’s pretty crazy to think that after a strong start to the season, the Kraken are now priced at +145 in a matchup versus the Calgary Flames, who only a couple of weeks ago I believed were a good bet to finish dead last in the NHL this year.

Based on most relevant indicators, the Kraken have been the worst team in the NHL over the last month of play. They hold a record of just 3-9-1 in that span, with a -21 goal differential. They’ve lost eight of those games in regulation and scored only 2.15 goals per game.

The Kraken’s underlying metrics are comparably poor, as they hold an expected goal share of just 40.94% since November 17th, which is the worst mark in the NHL in that span by a wide margin.

As a Calgarian who bet on the Flames to finish dead last and wants a high draft pick, I hate to say it, but the Flames have been playing some pretty solid hockey of late. They are 8-5-2 over the last 15 games and hold a strong 51.06% expected goal share over that span.

Over the last two seasons, I’ve not been a believer that the Flames are as strong of a side as their underlying numbers suggest, as they suffer from a distinct lack of high-end talent up front. Still, the Kraken suffer from the same issue, and all of the numbers suggest the Flames should outchance the Kraken quite heavily in this matchup.

Following an ugly October, Dustin Wolf has been rock-solid in goal with a .908 save percentage and 2.46 GAA over his last 15 appearances. It’s been confirmed that Wolf will start in this matchup, which should make it tough for a Kraken side that has struggled mightily offensively of late to make the most of what will likely be a low total of quality scoring chances.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Ottawa Senators

Penguins moneyline odds	+140
Senators moneyline odds	–165
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Penguins enter this matchup in the midst of a six-game losing skid. Though their level of play has certainly fallen off, the team would still have a livable record recently if not for numerous unfathomable collapses. During their losing skid, the Penguins have blown three leads in the final two minutes of the game, including allowing a goal on the power play with 0.1 seconds left to play versus the Anaheim Ducks and allowing the San Jose Sharks to score twice in the final three minutes during an ugly collapse versus the San Jose Sharks.
• The Penguins have confirmed that Arturs Silovs will start in goal in this matchup, as opposed to Stuart Skinner, who was lit up by his former side in his Penguins debut on Tuesday. Silovs holds a +0.4 GSAx rating and an .890 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.
• The Senators have confirmed that Linus Ullmark will start in goal. Ullmark stopped 23 of 25 shots faced in Monday’s win, which is a step in the right direction, though he still allowed a very soft goal to Logan Stanley. Ullmark holds a -10.5 GSAx rating and a .879 save percentage in 24 appearances this season.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Montreal Canadiens

Blackhawks moneyline odds	+155
Canadiens moneyline odds	–185
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Blackhawks are 0-2 since Connor Bedard suffered an upper-body injury and have scored only two goals in that span. Both games have been notably low-event, featuring a combined total of just nine goals. Chicago suffocated the Toronto Maple Leafs for 50 minutes in Tuesday’s loss, before allowing three goals in the final 10 minutes of play and ultimately not even earning a single point.
• Frank Nazar has been elevated into Connor Bedard’s role on Chicago’s top line. Nazar has recorded six shots on target in the first two games of Bedard’s absence.
• Jakub Dobes will start in goal for the Canadiens, fresh off a strong performance in a win over the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday in which he stopped 27 of 28 shots faced. Dobes holds a +3.8 GSAx rating and .892 save percentage in 18 appearances this season.

Edmonton Oilers @ Boston Bruins

Oilers moneyline odds	-135
Bruins moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Tristan Jarry has been confirmed as the Oilers‘ starter and will be making his third appearance with his new side. Though he holds a modest .879 save percentage in his first two games with the Oilers, most observers would say he’s played fairly well, and that number is tanked by a pair of garbage-time goals in Tuesday’s comfortable win over the Penguins.
• Connor McDavid is on an incredible run, even by his lofty standards. Over the last seven games, McDavid has put up nine goals and 20 points. He is priced at -110 to score two points in Thursday’s matchup, which is the same price as in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Penguins.
• The Bruins just keep proving myself, and a lot of other analysts wrong. Over the last 10 games they hold a record of 7-3-0 and could move back into the Atlantic Division lead with a win in this matchup. Betting on the Bruins to win every game this season would have yielded a +33.3% ROI, which is the best mark of any team this season.
• Jeremy Swayman’s brilliance has been a major key towards Boston’s surprisingly excellent start, as he holds a +18.4 GSAx rating and a .909 save percentage in 22 games this season.
• As I’ve continually noted, oddsmakers have their own models, but chances are their data points are equally unconvinced that the Bruins are actually this good, which is why Boston continues to be priced like a more average side. The Bruins rank 29th in expected goal share based on EvolvingHockey’s model this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals

Maple Leafs moneyline odds	+130
Capitals moneyline odds	–155
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• While it was far from an impressive performance, the Maple Leafs got a much-needed 3-2 win over the Blackhawks on Tuesday in Joseph Woll’s return to action. Toronto is 6-2-2 over the last 10 games and is now only four points back of the final Wild Card spot with two games in hand.
• The Maple Leafs have confirmed that Dennis Hildeby will start in this matchup, and it does make sense to see the team continue to split starts between him and Woll given how strong Hildeby has played this season with a .923 save percentage and 2.72 GAA in 11 appearances.
• The Capitals power play has succeeded on just 8.3% of opportunities in four games since Ryan Leonard was injured. It seems kind of absurd to think losing Leonard has actually hurt the unit’s effectiveness this much, but the unit struggled prior to adding Leonard into the mix and was on fire prior to his injury.
• The Capitals have lost three straight games following a 10-1-1 tear. They are 10-5-2 on home ice this season.
• Auston Matthews has had drastically fewer speed bursts over 20 mph this season and is statistically not shooting the puck as hard on average as in years past. Those two notes suggest the possibility he’s suffered a potentially career-altering injury, which has been beaten to death by Leafs media of late.
• Despite those thoughts, Matthews has scored five goals over the last eight games and is priced at +140 to score in this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

Flyers moneyline odds	+125
Sabres moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	7:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Sabres will play for the first time since firing GM Kevyn Adams and appointing Jarmo Kekäläinen as the new GM. It will be interesting to see how Kekäläinen approaches the trade deadline if his team is able to get into a better run of play, as it does sound as though there is legitimate belief among the team that they can get in the playoff mix.
• The Sabres have won three straight games and are 9-6-0 since Rasmus Dahlin returned to the lineup, and have also gotten other key pieces, such as Zach Benson and Josh Norris, back in the lineup in that span. They hold pretty strong underlying metrics of late, which is part of the reason they are priced at -150 versus a Flyers side that has also been in solid form.
• The other key reason the Sabres are fairly sizeable favourites is the fact that Samuel Ersson will start in goal as opposed to Dan Vladar. Vladar has been excellent this season, while Ersson holds a save percentage of .870 in 11 appearances after being arguably the worst goaltender to play 30 games last season.

New York Rangers @ St. Louis Blues

Rangers moneyline odds	-135
Blues moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-105), Under 5.5 (-115)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Blues will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after earning a 1-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets Wednesday. Joel Hofer started Wednesday’s matchup, so Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start Thursday. Binnington has played to a -9.8 GSAx and .869 save percentage in 21 appearances this season.
• I personally locked in a bet on the Rangers to win at -135 at open, thinking this looked like a solid spot to fade the Blues. The price for New York to win briefly hit -145 Thursday, before news broke that the team is dealing with an illness, including Artemi Panarin who missed the morning skate.
• The Rangers are 12-5-1 on the road this season, compared to a mark of 4-10-3 on home ice, a split that is becoming downright bizarre.
• The Blues remain without three regular top-six forwards: Jordan Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud and Dylan Holloway, while Adam Fox remains a massive loss for the Rangers.