NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For December 3

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee games from Wednesday’s five-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Jets vs Canadiens Under 6.5 Goals: -120

We hit on what felt to be an unpleasant bet yesterday, backing the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Florida Panthers to come in under 6.5 goals, and for some similar reasons there looks to be value in betting this matchup to come in below its high total despite the fact that both teams have been pretty awful defensively of late.

The Winnipeg Jets were far too reliant on Connor Hellebuyck in order to find success earlier on in the season and appeared to be one of the more natural regression candidates after the first month. Since the start of November, the Jets have accumulated the fewest points in the NHL with a record of 5-9-0. They have scored only 2.57 goals per game in that span, which is the eighth-worst mark in the NHL.

Following Winnipeg’s 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres Monday evening, the team held a players-only meeting to confront what has been a horrid stretch of play. While a more determined level of play certainly won’t solve all of the Jets’ issues, it would surprise me if they don’t offer a well-organized defensive effort in a matchup versus a Montreal Canadiens side that has generated only 3.05 xGF/60 over the last 10 games in this matchup.

While I did like the Jets at their opening price of -110 and am expecting a sharp effort here, it’s not necessarily because of a belief that they will be dominant offensively. Winnipeg has an excellent top power-play unit, and one of the more productive top lines in the league, but its offensive depth currently looks quite concerning.

And while the Canadiens have been giving up a ton of goals recently and certainly have not been great defensively, Samuel Montembeault’s horrid play has been a huge part of the story. As Montembeault started in Tuesday night’s 5-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators, Jakub Dobes is a safe bet to start tonight’s game.

Dobes has played to a +0.2 GSAx and a .888 save percentage in 13 appearances this season. He’s been league-average, and given the arguments working in favour of this being a tight-checking affair, we can live with that.

Dallas Stars @ New Jersey Devils

Stars moneyline odds	-105
Devils moneyline odds	–115
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Stars will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after losing 3-2 in overtime to the New York Rangers Tuesday evening. Casey DeSmith started Tuesday’s matchup, so Jake Oettinger is expected to start Wednesday. Oettinger holds a +5.5 GSAx rating and .900 save percentage in 17 appearances this season, and for a second straight year has been outperformed by DeSmith, though both have been highly effective.
• Tyler Seguin had to be helped off the ice after an ugly collision on Tuesday, and may miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
• Aside from their clinical finishing ability and elite goaltending, which are critical factors of the game, the Stars have not looked as dominant as their record suggests recently. They allowed 41 shots to the Rangers last night and probably have to be grateful to have earned a point.
• The Devils are 4-5-0 in nine games since losing Jack Hughes to injury. We successfully faded them in Monday evening’s matchup versus the Columbus Blue Jackets but did receive some favourable luck in that the Devils played much of that game with only four defenders.
• Nico Hischier has been quite productive since Hughes’s injury, recording seven goals and 13 points in 9 games.
• The Devils are 9-2-1 on home ice this season.

Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers

Sabres moneyline odds	-130
Flyers moneyline odds	+110
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Sabres opened at +115 Tuesday and have since moved all the way to -130. There are two factors at play in the line movement: the Sabres looked to be undervalued in the first place, and sharp money was always likely to move the line in the other direction, while it has now been confirmed that Samuel Ersson will start in goal for Philadelphia.
• Ersson has been drastically worse than Flyers’ number-one goaltender Dan Vladar this season and was one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL in the 2024-25 season. Ersson holds a -22.8 GSAx rating in 55 appearances dating back to the start of last season.
• Sharper bettors likely were high on the Sabres even prior to confirmation that Ersson would start due to the fact that Buffalo has quietly been playing some pretty solid hockey recently. Buffalo is 6-3-0 in its last nine games and holds a 56.37% expected goal share in that span.
• Rasmus Dahlin, Josh Norris, and Zach Benson are all back in the Sabres lineup. Norris and Benson both play on the team’s top offensive line, while Dahlin obviously plays on the team’s top defensive pairing. Nobody is going to reach to defend the Sabres, who have been rebuilding for what feels like an eternity, but based on usage their injury situation has been quite horrid for much of this season.

Utah Mammoth @ San Jose Sharks

Mammoth moneyline odds	-110
Ducks moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Things are getting pretty ugly for the Mammoth, who are 2-5-3 over the last 10 games and have lost four straight entering this matchup. I reached and bet the Mammoth to beat the San Jose Sharks at a price of -165 on Monday, believing it was a great get-right spot, and it ultimately proved to be a downright embarrassing bet given the price and result.
• So with that said, I’m just not sure about backing the Mammoth until they turn things around. Though the talent in the team’s top six looks impressive, they’ve been struggling to generate offence at the level I’d expect, while Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek have been quite average in goal.
• Highly touted prospect Daniil But will make his NHL debut for the Mammoth in this matchup and is expected to skate on the team’s second line alongside Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther. But was drafted 12th overall in 2023, and he’s earned the call-up, having put up 17 points in 19 AHL games this season.
• The Anaheim Ducks continue to deal with the absence of number-one goaltender Lukas Dostal, who has been excellent dating back to the start of last season. With Petr Mrazek also listed as day-to-day, Ville Husso is expected to make a second consecutive start.
• Husso stopped 21 of 22 shots faced in a 4-1 win in St. Louis Monday evening, and holds a +0.6 GSAx and .880 save percentage in three appearances this season.

Washington Capitals @ San Jose Sharks

Capitals moneyline odds	-155
Sharks moneyline odds	+130
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• It seemed quite likely that the Capitals were due for a heater if their special teams play were to stabilize, as they looked like one of the better teams at even strength early on this season. That narrative has come to fruition, as Washington is 9-2-1 over its last 12 games.
• Washington’s power play has succeeded on 27.1% of opportunities over the last five games, after head coach Spencer Carbery adjusted his units. The main change has been inserting Ryan Leonard onto the top unit, which has led to more effective zone entries as well as greater unpredictability following the initial setup.
• As Logan Thompson started last night’s matchup in Los Angeles for the Capitals, Charlie Lindgren will get the start in this matchup. Lindgren holds a +4.7 GSAx and .886 save percentage in nine games this season. As I’ve continued to note, Lindgren is a better-than-average backup option, and his season stats are still hurting from soaking up all seven goals on October 25th in a game that every Capitals analyst would unanimously agree was their worst of the season.
• Is the “Shark Tank” becoming a tough place to play again? The Sharks are 9-4-3 on home ice this season, compared to a mark of 4-7-0 on the road.
• Macklin Celebrini and Yaroslav Askarov are grabbing most of the headlines for the Sharks, but Will Smith certainly deserves some love with 27 points in 27 games played this season. Smith has put up five goals and an assist over the last three games, and is priced at -150 to record a point in this matchup.