In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from Monday’s five-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.
Pick—Los Angeles Kings vs Dallas Stars: Stars Moneyline -130
Stars moneyline
As has been the case for several consecutive seasons, the Los Angeles Kings hold strong underlying metrics based on public models, and oddsmakers’ models are likely similarly high on L.A. given that it is priced at +110 to win versus the high-powered Dallas Stars.
While it’s easy to agree with the underlying metrics that suggest the Kings suppress quality offensive scoring chances effectively, their team looks quite flat from an offensive perspective, and it’s not overly surprising that they have scored only 2.65 goals per game this season, which ranks 28th in the NHL.
The Kings’ power play has also been a significant concern once again this season, as it holds a success rate of just 13.7%.
From the Stars’ perspective, you could argue that their five-on-five play does not look as fundamentally strong as their record suggests. However, unlike the Kings, the Stars’ top six is littered with elite producers, and they have made the most of their scoring chances on 13.09% of opportunities this season.
The Stars hold a high PDO of 103.46 this season, which does suggest regression is on the horizon. Still, most hockey observers would likely have picked Dallas to be among the league leaders in shooting percentage entering the year, and its goaltending tandem of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith offering strong results also isn’t surprising.
Based on Monday’s line movement, it also seems possible that the Stars’ price has improved based on confirmation that DeSmith would be starting in goal as opposed to Oettinger, though it also may have been because the market was once again low on the Stars.
It wouldn’t make much sense if the line movement was due to DeSmith’s confirmation, as he has played to a +9.8 GSAx rating in 11 games this season with a .920 save percentage and was comparably excellent last season with a +15.9 GSAx rating in 27 appearances.
Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers
| Ducks moneyline odds | +100 |
| Rangers moneyline odds | -120 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Mika Zibanejad will be a healthy scratch after missing a team meeting. William Cuylle will likely be elevated back into the top six as a result, and potentially the top power-play unit if head coach Mike Sullivan decides to stick with five forwards.
- Ducks’ number-one goaltender Lukas Dostal returned from a three-week absence Saturday in New Jersey and stopped 18 of 21 shots faced.
- The Ducks are 1-2 to start their three-game road trip, which concludes with this matchup. They are 8-8-1 on the road this season, compared to a mark of 11-4-0 at home.
- With a record of 6-2-2 over the last 10 games, the Rangers are only five points back of the Islanders for second in the Metropolitan Division, yet also still rank 11th in a closely contested Eastern Conference.
Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
| Panthers moneyline odds | +105 |
| Lightning moneyline odds | -125 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Has to be viewed as the most exciting matchup of the evening from a fan perspective. There is some legitimate hatred in the Battle of Florida currently after some iffy hits in the preseason, and the Department of Player Safety was on hand for the first meeting of the season between these rivals, which the Lightning won 3-1.
- Jonas Johansson will start in goal for the Lightning. Johansson holds a +4.8 GSAx rating and a .904 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.
- Ryan McDonagh was at Tampa Bay’s morning skate but is not expected to play in this matchup.
- This matchup concludes a four-game road trip for the Panthers, though they would have been able to return home following Saturday’s impressive win in Dallas. The Panthers are 6-7-0 on the road this season.
- The Lightning stuck with a top line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Nikita Kucherov at Monday’s morning skate.
Ottawa Senators @ Winnipeg Jets
| Senators moneyline odds | +110 |
| Jets moneyline odds | -130 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115) |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- In what was Connor Hellebuyck’s return to action, the Jets stabilized with a 5-1 win over the Washington Capitals on Saturday. The team went 2-8-1 during Hellebuyck’s absence, and it feels possible that Saturday’s win could be somewhat of a turning point.
- Hellebuyck is currently priced at +1400 to win the Vezina, a bet that looks appealing to me. In terms of statistics, he’s still right there with the league leaders, and he’s only played eight fewer games than favourite Logan Thompson. It seems possible that Hellebuyck will play enough games to close the gap, given that the Jets may not have the luxury of using him cautiously down the stretch in a competitive Central Division.
- Ottawa is just 3-7-0 over the last 10 games and is now tied in points with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the basement of the Eastern Conference, having played one less game. With that said, if they can elevate their level of play, a playoff spot is still within striking distance.
- Based on most public expected goals models, the Senators are one of the greatest underachievers in terms of their actual record. Poor goaltending from Linus Ullmark has been a concern, and he’s expected to start in this matchup.
- The Senators have been dealing with some key absences as well of late, and Shane Pinto and Thomas Chabot are both set to remain sidelined in this matchup.
Nashville Predators @ St. Louis Blues
| Predators moneyline odds | -105 |
| Blues moneyline odds | -115 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120) |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- It’s pretty interesting to consider that following some line movement Monday morning, the Predators are only the slightest of underdogs versus the Blues in this matchup. The Predators hold a record of 6-4-0 over the last 10 games and hold an expected goal share of 47.21% in that span.
- The Blues are 5-4-1 over the last 10 games and hold an expected goal share of 46.06% in that span.
- Earlier on in the season it seemed to be dealing with some poor puck luck and also suffered from some notably awful goaltending, but it seems that their level of play has dipped off over the past month.
- St. Louis will be without three notable forwards in this matchup, as Jordan Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud and Dylan Holloway will be absent from the lineup. Robby Fabbri is expected to overtake Holloway’s spot on the second line, after Holloway was injured in a collision at Sunday’s practice.