Following a league-mandated off day for American Thanksgiving on Thursday, the NHL is offering a mammoth 15-game slate Friday, including 10 games with start times of 4 p.m. ET or earlier. In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the early portion of Friday’s NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
Best bet-Rangers vs. Bruins: Under 6 goals
Rangers/Bruins under 6 goals
The Boston Bruins have surprised in starting the season 14-11-0, and what’s been especially unpredictable to me about their start, and probably to the majority of NHL observers, is that their offensive play has been solid, averaging 3.08 goals per game.
We’ve discussed on many occasions in these slate breakdowns how online sportsbooks haven’t been sold on this Bruins team as legitimate, and my personal belief that the team was a clear regression candidate offensively. Those takes are looking better currently, as they have scored just 2.28 goals per game over their last six matchups.
The Bruins don’t appear to have the kind of offensive talents to outscore their expected rates by a notable margin this season, as on paper their forward corps looks quite underwhelming. If you told me the Bruins would be surprisingly good this year my assumption would immediately be that meant Jeremy Swayman trended back into Vezina contention and that they bounced back defensively under head coach Marco Sturm.
And in their more recent matchups, the Bruins have trended towards a lower-event style of play, which makes sense given their expected strengths and weaknesses entering the year.
Meanwhile, head coach Mike Sullivan’s Rangers side looks likely to be play a notably low-event style of hockey this season. Sullivan stated entering the year that his main goal was to clean up the team’s defensive play, which was disastrous last season and made Igor Shesterkin appear to be a lesser goalie than he would have been playing behind the majority of teams.
Sullivan’s group has accomplished his goal so far, as they have allowed only 2.26 xGA/60 this season, which is the fourth-best mark in the NHL, and they have allowed only 2.60 goals against per game where it counts. While they have been excellent defensively, New York has struggled to produce, a storyline that has been beaten to death this season.
The Rangers’ chance creation numbers are solid, but they do lack offensive skill further down the lineup, which will likely prevent too significant of progress towards their current 28th-ranked goal per game average.
Though the over is 13-12 in Bruins games this season, they still do not present as a notably high-event side. There is also the slight concern that these teams will be a little lethargic following the holiday on Thursday. Still, I’m surprised to see a total of six in this matchup at the time of writing and not 5.5, as New York is a side that is clearly led by its defensive play and offering an elite goaltender in Shesterkin.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings
| Lightning moneyline odds | -125 |
| Red Wings moneyline odds | +105 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Time | 12:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- It might be getting close to last call for betting on the Lightning to win the Atlantic Division, which looks to be theirs for the taking. I outlined why they were a good bet to win the division entering the year, and noted that at +120 they still looked Iike a solid bet prior to Wednesday’s win over the Calgary Flames. There’s a legitimate argument to be made that they are the only team looking indisputably legitimate in the division, and barring significant injuries, look to be the most likely winner by a wide margin.
- Despite dealing with numerous significant injuries, the Lightning are 13-3-0 in their last 16 games. They rank second in expected goal share during that span.
- The Red Wings will be looking to respond after a disappointing 6-3 loss to the 32nd-ranked Nashville Predators on home ice Wednesday evening. My personal opinion is that the Red Wings have felt more legitimate this season, but the fact that they have started hot before falling apart in each of the past two seasons is certainly a concern given their 4-5-1 record over the last 10 games.
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
| Avalanche moneyline odds | -170 |
| Wild moneyline odds | +145 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+110), Under 6.5 (-130) |
| Time | 3:37 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- In a year where the NHL’s median points percentage is as closely packed as it has ever been, the Avalanche are 17-1-5 and have won 10 consecutive games, playing to an absurd +33 goal differential in that span. They rank first in the NHL in goals scored per game average and first in goals against per game average.
- It’s interesting that Scott Wedgewood currently ranked second in NHL.com’s staff poll regarding who should currently win the Vezina Trophy, as he is currently priced at +2500. My personal opinion is that there are drastically more deserving candidates at this point, but as has typically been the case, excellent surface-level stats seem to be weighing too heavily into the race. With that in mind, Wedgewood should have a solid chance of remaining in contention, because no team has defended remotely close to as well as the Avalanche have.
- The Wild have also been one of the NHL’s hottest teams, with a record of 8-1-1 over the last 10 games. They are 7-3-3 on home ice this season.
- While Kirill Kaprizov has been no slouch with 12 points over the last 12 games, it’s been Matt Boldy leading the way for the Wild with 16 points in the same span. He is priced at -175 to record a point in this difficult matchup.
- Wedgewood served as the backup in Wednesday’s matchup and will likely start this game as a result. Wedgewood ranks 12th in the NHL with a +9.0 GSAx rating but ranks fifth with a save percentage of .918.
- Jesper Wallstedt also rested in Wednesday’s matchup and will likely start this game as a result. Wallstedt has been arguably the best goaltender in the NHL this season in terms of sheer effectiveness; however, he’s only made six starts. He holds a +6.2 GSAx and save percentage of .935 in those outings.
Calgary Flames @ Florida Panthers
| Flames moneyline odds | +165 |
| Panthers moneyline odds | –200 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Dustin Wolf allowed three goals on the first four shots of Wednesday’s matchup versus the Tampa Bay Lightning and was pulled after just 5:52, which was the earliest he had ever been pulled in his pro career. At the time of writing, it’s unclear if the Flames will go back to Wolf or offer this start to Devin Cooley, who has been surprisingly effective in playing to a +7.9 GSAx and a .930 save percentage in eight appearances this season.
- The Panthers enter this matchup off a 4-2 loss on home ice to the Philadelphia Flyers. They are 6-3-0 following a loss this season and 8-4-1 on home ice.
- Sam Reinhart leads all Panthers skaters with seven goals and 14 points over the last 10 games. He is priced at +130 to score in Friday’s matchup.
Montreal Canadiens @ Vegas Golden Knights
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +155 |
| Knights moneyline odds | -185 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Canadiens have bounced-back from a five-game losing skid with consecutive victories. A key development from those matchups was that goaltender Jakub Dobes was sharp in both matchups, following what was his worst stretch of play in his brief NHL career.
- It’s unclear whether the Canadiens will keep riding Dobes or turn to Samuel Montembeault in this matchup, as the latter has struggled to a -6.3 GSAx and .852 save percentage in 12 appearances this season.
- Though the Knights arguably have not been as dominant as expected this season, a horrid 1-8 record in games decided by 3-on-3 and shootout has tanked their record.
- Mark Stone returned to the Knights lineup Wednesday, recording a goal in 19:58 of ice time. He’s put up 14 points in seven games this season, which as you would expect, is the highest point-per-game average in the league among skaters that have played at least five games.
Ottawa Senators @ St. Louis Blues
| Senators moneyline odds | -110 |
| Blues moneyline odds | -110 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Brady Tkachuk is expected to return to the Senators’ lineup in this matchup. They have played to a record of 11-5-4 during his absence.
- The Senators’ third line of Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto, and Claude Giroux has arguably been the best third unit in the league. They hold a 67.7% expected goal share and have outscored opponents 10-6. Pinto and Giroux have combined for 33 points in 23 games this season.
- The Blues completed their five-game Eastern road swing Wednesday, finishing with a record of 1-1-3, losing four of those matchups by a score of 3-2.
- Blues head coach Jim Montgomery went back to a top line of Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou in Wednesday’s matchup. Buchnevich is among the NHL’s greater disappointments this season, having produced only 10 points in 24 games, but has put up a point in three straight entering this matchup.
Vancouver Canucks @ San Jose Sharks
| Canucks moneyline odds | -120 |
| Sharks moneyline odds | +100 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-120), Under 6.5 (+100) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- It’s interesting to see that the Canucks are only the slightest of favourites in Game 25 of the season, but they do hold a lesser record and comparably poor underlying metrics in the month of November. Over the last 12 games, the Canucks have allowed 4.37 xGA/60 per 60, which is the worst mark in the NHL by a wide margin.
- The Sharks have also been poor defensively of late, allowing 3.60 xGA/60 over the last 13 games. As a result, it’s not overly surprising that we see a high total of 6.5 here, especially as Kevin Lankinen and Thatcher Demko are both sidelined for the Canucks.
- Elias Pettersson has put up 10 points over the last seven games, and continues to receive very tough usage at even strength.