The Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets will face off in an intriguing all-Canadian NHL matchup Thursday at the Canada Life Centre, as the Jets will look to snap their 10-game losing skid, which is the longest stretch any team has suffered through during the 2025-26 regular season.
The Oilers and Jets have faced off twice before this season, with the Oilers coming out on top of both matchups by a combined score of 9-3.
Oddsmakers aren’t entirely sold that the Jets are as bad as their recent record suggests, as the Jets are just the slightest underdogs, priced at -105. Connor Hellebuyck offers a significant edge over Oilers starter Calvin Pickard, but Hellebuyck and the Jets will face a stiff test in attempting to shut down a strong Oilers attack led by a scorching hot Connor McDavid.
My best bet for Thursday’s clash between the Oilers and Jets is backing Kyle Connor to score at +130.
Kyle Connor to score
Best Bet-Kyle Connor Anytime Goal: +130
It’s not necessarily news, as fans of the other six Canadian NHL franchises love to rag on the Oilers’ defensive play, but by no means is Edmonton a defensive juggernaut. It has allowed 3.33 goals against per game this season, which is the seventh-worst mark in the NHL.
Edmonton’s chances of holding opponents to low offensive outputs are further reduced in this matchup, as with Tristan Jarry sidelined, the Oilers are opting to start Calvin Pickard, who’s even looked a fair bit less effective than Connor Ingram. Pickard holds an .873 save percentage and a 3.73 GAA this season, which are among the worst marks of any goaltender to play 10 games.
Even more so than the Oilers, Winnipeg’s offensive depth has been a glaring weakness this season, which has placed a ton of pressure upon the team’s top line led by Connor and Mark Scheifele to carry the team to success, and they have formed a highly effective top unit.
Connor is on pace to record a second consecutive 40-goal campaign, with 20 tallies through the first 41 games of the season.
When the Jets hosted the Oilers on December 29th, Connor racked up nine shots on target from a total of 12 attempts, but was unable to break through as Calvin Pickard played his best game of the season. Head coach Scott Arniel should be able to pick out some favourable offensive zone starts in this matchup to help his top line expose Edmonton’s weak bottom six and shaky defensive core.
Over the last month the Oilers penalty kill has succeeded on only 77.8% of opportunities, and Connor should have a good chance of getting some quality looks on the man advantage in this matchup.
It seems unlikely that Pickard will put together another surprisingly dominant showing in this matchup, and it’s encouraging that Connor generated so many looks when these teams faced off just over a week ago. Connor is one of the best finishers in the league, and I like the chances that he and the Jets’ elite top line have of having a productive evening in an effort to carry the team to their first win since December 13th.
Betting the Oilers
Aided by the fact that the Pacific Division is without question the softest bracket in the league, the Oilers should be a safe bet to avoid a shocking playoff absence after a poor start to the season. Edmonton is 9-5-1 over its last 15 games, which has been enough to earn a share of the division lead, though it has played two more games than the Vegas Golden Knights.
Relative to other Stanley Cup contenders, the Oilers still have some clear weaknesses in goal and further down the lineup card, but they have overcome those issues of late with some excellent offensive play.
Over the last 15 games, the Oilers have scored 3.67 goals per game, led by an incredible run from McDavid, who’s put up an absurd total of 14 goals and 35 points in that span.
McDavid’s recent production has been aided by the returns of Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who were both absent from the lineup for much of the earlier part of the season. Based on Thursday’s morning skate, the three will remain together in this matchup. They have outscored opponents 12-6 this season and scored 4.19 goals per 60.
Kasperi Kapanen made a successful return to the lineup on Tuesday versus the Nashville Predators, scoring a goal and an assist across 14:33 of ice time. Kapanen is expected to remain alongside Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin on what should be an effective second unit.
The Oilers’ bottom six has been a significant concern this season, but it is possible that the newly-formed third-line combination of Isaac Howard, Jack Roslovic, and Matthew Savoie is slightly more competent than the majority of third-line iterations we have seen this season, though it could still be a unit that struggles defensively.
Edmonton’s power play has succeeded on 34.8% of opportunities over the last month of play and has to be viewed as the best unit in the league. The top unit offers a ton of different wrinkles in the offensive zone and is much less static than weaker units and has also instilled some effective set plays on zone entries, which have led to dangerous looks.
Betting the Jets
It seems fairly hard to argue that the Jets were quite as dominant as their record suggested a year ago, and suddenly everything has fallen apart at once this season, and they feel like a team that is not comfortable in close matchups. Perhaps that only seems to be true because only one offensive line ever looks overly threatening, but regardless, wins have become very tough to come by for the Jets.
Hellebuyck has played to a +7.3 GSAx rating and a .903 save percentage this season. By no means are those bad numbers, but they are still significantly worse than the ones Hellebuyck posted last year during his incredible Hart Trophy-winning campaign.
While it’s hard to debate that Hellebuyck has not been as effective as usual since returning from a month-long absence, it certainly hasn’t helped matters that the team’s defensive play has not been as sharp as it was a year ago. The Jets have allowed 3.44 xGA/60, which ranks 15th in the NHL this season.
Though Jonathan Toews’s return to the NHL is an enjoyable story, banking on the potential Hall of Famer to succeed in a role as the team’s second-line centre has not worked out well for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. Arniel has shaken up his top two units ahead of this matchup, as he has moved Gabriel Vilardi onto Toews’s unit and moved Alex Iafallo up to the top line.
Though it’s not been a strength recently, the Jets are 8-8-1 at home this season, compared to a mark of 7-13-2 on the road. They held noteworthy home and road splits last year, playing to a record of 30-7-4 on home ice.
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