The Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens will meet in an exciting all-Canadian matchup Wednesday at the Bell Centre, which has earned the reputation of the providing arguably the best atmosphere in the NHL.
The Canadiens have played to a record of 6-2-2 over their last 10 games, including some quality wins on their recent road trip over formidable sides such as the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars. They enter Wednesday’s slate only three points back of the idle Tampa Bay Lightning in the Atlantic Division race.
Calgary, meanwhile, has fallen back to 30th place in the league following a pair of regulation losses versus two below-average sides, the Nashville Predators and Seattle Kraken. Barring a strong stretch of play ahead of the Olympic break, GM Craig Conroy will likely need to consider finally shipping out some veterans to help move the team forward ahead of the deadline.
My best bet for Wednesday’s clash between the Flames and Canadiens is backing Ivan Demidov to record an assist at +100, and I’ll also touch on bet365’s Superboost available to select users for the game.
Best Bet-Ivan Demidov Over 0.5 Assists +100
Ivan Demidov to record an assist
While Demidov is likely to let down bettors who backed him as the Calder Trophy favourite this season, you could certainly argue the rookie Habs phenom has been every bit as good as expected; Matthew Schaefer has just been that absolutely brilliant.
Earlier in the year there was plenty of talk in Habs nation regarding Demidov’s usage, given that he was often used on the third line and not on the team’s top power play. Based on Demidov’s level of play now that he has been garnering greater usage, it certainly seems that Montreal’s highly passionate fanbase had a point.
Demidov has averaged 16:24 of ice time and tallied 13 assists over his last 17 games played. His recent results are even more encouraging if we shorten the sample size up a little more, as over the last seven games, he’s recorded seven assists and three points, while averaging 17:02 of time-on-ice.
Demidov’s dynamic playmaking has really helped the Canadiens’ top power play-unit become much less stagnant and helped two high-quality shooters in Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki generate more threatening looks. Over the last 20 games, Montreal’s power play has succeeded on 24.6% of opportunities.
The Canadiens’ second line of Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Oliver Kapanen has also been in great form of late. Slafkovsky’s game has come a long way since he first came into the league, as he’s displaying much greater overall awareness and decision-making, which has helped to unlock his strong overall skillset.
Slafkovsky has already netted 15 goals this season and offers a competent finisher to play alongside Demidov, while Kapanen has also had a solid rookie campaign with 13 goals.
Best Bet—Over 1.5 First Period Goals *Boosted to +150*
Over 1.5 first period goals Superboost
Bet365 is offering a Superboost on this matchup, allowing bettors to receive a price of +150 on the first period to feature over 1.5 total goals, which is set at -130 without the boost. A price of -130 does suggest this bet will still lose 44% of the time, so keep that in mind.
While it is a bet that will still lose roughly 44% of the time, these boosts are generally always +EV and are mainly used as a promotional tool. In general, it is worth maxing bet365’s superboosts (small limits will apply to most users), so long as you are comfortable with the fact that it is still far from a guaranteed win, as with any bet.
Betting the Flames
The Flames undoubtedly dropped some points that they desperately needed (unless you’re on team tank) in their recent matchups versus the Predators and Kraken, but have been quite scrappy over the last 20 games, playing to a record of 12-7-1. They lack the kind of high-end offensive talents featured by a team like Montreal, but play with a lot of energy and feature three lines capable of causing problems on the forecheck and moving pucks low-to-high in the offensive zone.
The Flames rank seventh in the league in shots on goal per 60 this season. They generally create a solid output of chances on target, but for a second consecutive season a lack of quality has been the bigger issue.
Calgary has been giving up its share of chances at the other end of the ice, however, as since December 1st it has allowed 3.58 xGA/60 and 28.97 shots against per 60. In that span, the Flames have allowed 2.93 goals against per game, as Devin Cooley and Dustin Wolf have both been quite solid in goal.
Betting the Canadiens
The Canadiens will be looking to avoid a letdown here in their first game back at home off a highly successful seven-game road trip. Montreal played to a record of 4-1-2 throughout the road trip, despite being priced as the betting favourite in only one game, and its strong results throughout a tough patch of the schedule significantly boosted its playoff hopes.
The greatest concern for the Canadiens over the last two months has been the struggles of Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault in goal, who have both been drastically less effective of late following strong campaigns a year ago. Dobes and Montembeault’s struggles will not factor into this game, though, as the Canadiens have confirmed that rookie Jacob Fowler will make his eighth NHL appearance.
Fowler has been rock-solid so far, playing to a .903 save percentage and 2.57 GAA across his first seven appearances as well as a +3.6 GSAx rating.
As is the case for the vast majority of defenders that handle the puck often and attempt to drive possession, Lane Hutson has had his share of miscues this season, but he’s been in tremendous form of late playing alongside Alexandre Carrier, while Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson have formed a strong second pairing.
Over the last 15 games, the Canadiens have played to a 51.09% expected goal share. Looking away from the numbers, their overall level of play looks fairly convincing on the nights when they have received solid goaltending. They offer two solid defensive pairings, a strong top-six forward group and competent special teams units.
Philip Danault’s addition from the Los Angeles Kings also should continue to prove useful. While Danault’s offensive play will rarely wow anybody, he’s capable of being an eraser in head-to-head matchups versus opposing top units, and should benefit from a more clear-cut role than he had this season with the Kings.