In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down the two best NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks today.
After an 0-2 evening last Friday, these player prop guides enter Friday’s slate at +14.15 units across 153 selections this season. We will look to bounce back with a pair of plus-money props, involving two skaters whose recently improved roles do not seem to be garnering enough compensation from oddsmakers.
Check out today’s best NHL player prop bets below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Anthony Mantha Over 1.5 Shots on Goal: +115
Mantha over 1.5 SOG
When news broke that Evgeni Malkin would miss Tuesday’s matchup versus the Colorado Avalanche this morning, the first thing I did was lock in bets on Anthony Mantha to record over 1.5 shots on goal and over 2.5 shots on goal. Based on the recent period of play in which Malkin was suspended, it seemed safe to assume that Mantha would be the skater to overtake his role on the top power-play unit, and that Mantha would also bump back onto the second line.
Based on Tuesday’s morning skate, those assumptions were correct. The price for Mantha to record two shots has dropped from +130 to +115, but that price still looks livable given the confirmation of Mantha’s improved roles. I’ll also use this opportunity to recommend following me in the Action Network app (NicholaskMartin) where I log most of my bets, as some followers likely caught the better price while it existed.
Penguins GM Kyle Dubas made a really smart bet in buying low on Mantha after he missed the majority of last season following a reconstructive knee surgery. He’s recorded 26 goals and 53 points in 73 games and holds extremely solid underlying metrics, including a +12.0 expected goals above replacement rating (per EvolvingHockey).
Mantha has always possessed a heavy and accurate shot, but a lack of consistency and a hit-or-miss compete level have been major issues throughout his turbulent career. He’s been pretty consistently effective for the Penguins this season, and it’s no surprise to see that he once again is the skater getting an elevated role with Malkin sidelined.
Over the last 12 games, Mantha has recorded five goals and nine points and recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in seven of those contests.
But what’s really notable looking at Mantha’s player props for this matchup is how he performed during the recent five-game period in which Malkin was suspended. In those five games Mantha scored four goals, averaged 2.2 shots per game, and played an average of 16:45 per game.
Given that the price for over 1.5 shots sits at +115, those marks are quite encouraging, and I’m surprised there has not been a greater adjustment to this prop following the Penguins morning skate.
Cal Ritchie Over 0.5 Points: +120
Ritchie to record a point
Ritchie was acquired from the Colorado Avalanche as the main piece in the Brock Nelson trade, and after a slow start to the season, his excellent passing ability and solid offensive instincts have begun to shine through more consistently.
In his first 16 games with the Islanders, Ritchie registered just three points and averaged 11:27 of ice time. In the following 38 games, he’s put up 18 points and averaged 13:28 of ice time.
Based on Tuesday’s morning skate, Ritchie is set to bump up to Mat Barzal’s even-strength line as well as the Islanders’ top power-play unit. Playing alongside Barzal, who is the team’s top offensive skater, greatly increases Ritchie’s chances to produce a point, while his recent hit rate would already suggest a price of +120 isn’t too bad.
The Chicago Blackhawks play a very low-event brand of hockey and typically receive excellent play in goal from Spencer Knight. However, Chicago has confirmed that Arvid Soderblom will get the start in goal Tuesday, which boosts the Islanders’ chances of hanging up a strong offensive total.
Soderblom holds an .879 save percentage and 3.72 GAA, and the gap between him and Knight is among the most significant of any goaltending tandem in the NHL.
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