Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s five-game slate.
Best bet-Josh Doan Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +155
Josh Doan over 2.5 shots on goal
At 11-13-4 the Buffalo Sabres are heavily favoured to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season, and fans are rightfully fed up with the current management regime. While the team has undoubtedly made some really awful decisions in recent years, acquiring Doan and Michael Kesselring for J.J. Peterka doesn’t look to be one of them.
Doan has put up 19 points in 22 games this season, and the Sabres have generally carried play quite effectively in his minutes. He holds a +7.4 expected goals above replacement rating, which leads all Sabres forwards.
From a shot volume perspective, Doan has been consistent enough that it’s surprising he is still priced at such a long number to record three shots, particularly given that based on his roles on the team and ability to drive play, that volume seems sustainable. Doan has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in eight of the last 15 games, which is a great hit rate considering our price of +155.
Over the last five games, Doan has generated 16 shots on goal from 25 attempts on target. At Sunday’s practice he skated alongside Zach Benson and Josh Norris on the second line and also remained on the team’s top power-play unit. Playing alongside Benson should help Doan continue to generate a solid output of shot attempts, as Benson is a strong play-driver that is generally a pass-first skater.
Over the last 10 games, the Calgary Flames have allowed 26.66 shots against per 60, which ranks 13th in the NHL in that span. They aren’t as strong of a matchup for this bet as you might expect, but it’s still a livable spot for Doan considering the price and his expected usage in Monday’s matchup.
Best bet-Alex DeBrincat/Patrick Kane each to record a point: +125
DeBrincat/Kane points parlay
With numerous NHL regulars missing from a lineup that likely would not have been all that great to begin with, the Vancouver Canucks present as an excellent target for Detroit’s red-hot second line and top power-play unit to continue their strong recent production. The Canucks have allowed an NHL-worst 3.59 goals against per game this season, as well as 3.95 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which is the second-worst mark in the league.
Kane has been the Red Wings’ top producer of late, with 10 points over the last eight games, while DeBrincat has put up seven points in the same span. They have each recorded at least one point in six of the last eight games, and correlate well as they play together at even strength and on the top power-play unit.
In 46.6 minutes of even-strength play, the Red Wings’ current second-line combination of Kane, DeBrincat and Andrew Copp has scored 7.72 goals per 60. They have scored on a much higher than expected amount of chances in that span, but it’s clear watching Kane and DeBrincat play together that they are excellent at linking up on the type of model breaking plays that are not well quantified by expected goals data.
The Red Wings had the fourth-best power play in the NHL last season, so it’s no surprise that with the same personnel they have had the seventh-most effective unit this season.
Considering the favourable matchup and recent hit rate, there looks to be strong value in backing DeBrincat and Kane each to record a point Monday at +125.
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