NHL Best Player Prop Bets For December 4

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 10-game slate.

Best bet-Artemi Panarin/Mika Zibanejad 1+ Points Each: +105

Panarin has caught fire of late, with 21 points in 14 games over the last month of play, with at least one point in 10 of those 14 games. In the same span, Zibanejad has also been highly productive with 14 points and at least one point in 11 of those 14 games.

These two forwards have not often played together at even strength over the last two seasons, but are expected to remain together in Thursday’s matchup versus the Ottawa Senators alongside Alexis Lafreniere on the top line and will also play together on the top power-play unit.

With Leevi Merilainen set to start in goal for the Ottawa Senators, this looks like a good time to buy into Panarin and Zibanejad’s strong recent production while they are playing together on the same unit. Merilainen has played to a -3.2 GSAx rating and .874 save percentage in six appearances this season.

The Senators are a high-quality defensive team, but they become a more livable target with Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub sidelined, and have allowed 3.4 goals against per game over their last five matchups. By no means do I believe this is a plus matchup, but it’s livable for a bet priced at +105 that has hit in eight of the last 12 of New York’s games and is now more highly correlated with the two playing together at even strength.

Best bet-Roman Josi Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +135

We have played this prop twice since Josi’s return to the lineup, and were lucky enough to hit both times before Josi recorded just four shots on goal in the following three games, passing only because of how greatly the price had come down. Now that the number is back up at +135 versus a Florida Panthers side that has been a surprisingly strong target recently, it seems like a good time to buy back into the Josi in this market.

We touched on the fact that the Panthers have not been great at suppressing shot volume the last time these two sides met, and Josi came through for us recording six shots on goal from 10 shot attempts. Over the last 12 games, the Panthers have allowed 28.29 shots against per 60, which is the 10th-highest rate in the NHL. Considering the skaters currently sidelined for the Panthers, it’s not all that surprising that they have become a much less dominant team defensively.

Since returning to the lineup, Josi has looked true to form while averaging 23:27 of ice time and generating 6.5 shot attempts per game. Though he’s offered less shot volume over the last three matchups, he’s still recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of six matchups since returning from injury, and considering his usage and historic shot volume, it seems likely that he will continue to record over 2.5 shots on goal in 50% of matchups moving forward.

So considering the fact that the Panthers do not actually project to be a below average matchup, a price of +135 for Josi to record three shots on Thursday looks quite enticing.

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