Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 13-game slate.
Best bet-Leo Carlsson Over 1.5 Points: +275
Leo Carlsson over 1.5 points
As expected, our guy Leo Carlsson has had a full-fledged breakout this season with 38 points in 30 games. He’s recorded multiple points in 30% of games this season, so as a blanket rule, taking a price of +275 for Carlsson to record two points in any matchup has been a fine proposition so far.
Thursday’s matchup versus the New York Islanders features a high total of 6.5, with the Islanders priced as slight underdogs following confirmation that backup goaltender David Rittich will be starting in this game for the Islanders. Head coach Patrick Roy’s side deserves plenty of credit for their surprisingly strong play this season, and I did feel that they played quite well in Tuesday’s win over the Vegas Golden Knights.
Still, Ilya Sorokin has come on quite strong after a slow start to the year, and Rittich still appears to offer a noteworthy dropoff. Rittich holds a .901 save percentage in 10 appearances this season, after finishing with a -11.4 GSAx rating in 34 appearances last season. Goaltending is highly volatile, but those who are most familiar with Rittich certainly wouldn’t bet on strong results all season from the veteran.
The Islanders rank 16th in the NHL in xGA/60 over the last 15 games and provide a solid matchup for Anaheim’s highly effective top trio of Carlsson, Troy Terry, and Chris Kreider. Carlsson and the Ducks were entirely outplayed on Tuesday by the Pittsburgh Penguins, but it seems reasonable to believe that they will bounce back in what should be a fairly high-event matchup.
At a long price of +275, I’m happy to take a shot on a skater who has looked every bit as dangerous as his lofty point totals suggest, authoring his 10th multi-point game of this young season Thursday.
Best bet-Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points: +110
Connor McDavid over 1.5 points
It took 59:57, but McDavid came through with his second point of the game in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres to cash our best bet. We were aided by a favourable game script in that matchup, as the Oilers were forced to push for offence entering the third period down three goals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Thursday’s matchup provides another fairly strong game script.
The Detroit Red Wings have improved defensively this season, but are still far from a defensive juggernaut and will be playing the second leg of a road back-to-back. Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane offer the team a handful of skaters capable of exposing the Oilers’ shaky goaltending and modest defensive play, and McDavid will likely need to author another productive performance for his team to earn a result in this spot.
The Red Wings have allowed 3.32 goals against per game this season, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league. McDavid’s slow start to the season seems to be fully in the rearview mirror, as since November 1st he’s put up 30 points over the last 18 games and recorded multiple points in 10 of those games.
As we touched on in Tuesday’s piece, McDavid’s recent production has been aided by the returns of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman to the lineup. Since their return, the Oilers’ power play has been on fire, while they have also joined McDavid on the Oilers’ top line at even strength.
Considering the price tag of +110, I’m happy to not overthink this one and ride with arguably the best player in the league staying hot in what should be a fairly high-event matchup.
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