The Toronto Maple Leafs extended their winning streak to two games with a 4-2 win over the Calgary Flames, keeping their playoff hopes on life support. In what is their final matchup prior to the Olympic break, they will look to dig deep in a much tougher spot on the road versus the high-flying Edmonton Oilers.
Edmonton will be looking to respond from a 7-3 loss to the Minnesota Wild Saturday night and will have a notable rest advantage given that it has not played since. It’s been a Jekyll-and-Hyde start from the Oilers this season, but they still look incredible when playing on the front foot despite plenty of defensive miscues and are not receiving overly strong play in goal.
We came up short on Monday’s Leafs same game parlay, as while William Nylander and Matt Coronato went over their shot props, MacKenzie Weegar finished with zero shots. We’ll hope the Leafs remain comparably shaky defensively Tuesday, but will pivot to counting on those chances turning into more goals against versus an Oilers side with much more skill offensively than the Flames. Our NHL same-game parlay prices out at +700 prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users.
- Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-140)
- Evan Bouchard Anytime Goal-Scorer (+320)
- Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-180)
Nick’s Leafs/Oilers SGP
Leg 1: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points
The Leafs have allowed only four goals throughout the first two games of their Western Canadian swing, but in those two matchups they have still allowed 61 shots on goal and 4.57 expected goals. Those two performances versus a pair of the league’s worst offensive sides don’t seem to be enough to suggest that they are turning a corner defensively.
Over the last 15 games, the Leafs have allowed 3.84 xGA/60 and 32.02 shots against per 60. They have allowed 3.60 goals against per game where it counts, so contrary to last season when they received incredible goaltending, it’s hard to defend the defensive play of head coach Craig Berube’s side.
As Joseph Woll started Monday’s matchup, Anthony Stolarz will likely get the nod in goal. Stolarz has missed significant time and been much less effective when available this season, which is a major reason for the Leafs’ disappointing results compared to last year.
Stolarz holds a -13.2 GSAx rating and .876 save percentage across 15 appearances this season.
Those notes set the stage for each of our three selections, which will all be targeting offence from the Oilers. We will start with our breakdown on McDavid scoring two points, which will surely be a popular play Tuesday night given the way the game’s best player has been rolling along over the last third of the season.
Over the last 30 games, McDavid has registered 59 points and recorded at least two points in 60% of games played. He’s remained in comparable form more recently, as he enters in the midst of a four-game point streak in which he’s put up 10 points.
These high-profile matchups versus Auston Matthews and the Leafs seem to get a little extra attention from McDavid, as he’s put up 15 points in his last seven games versus Toronto and three points in the previous meeting between these sides this season.
Legs 2 and 3: Evan Bouchard Anytime Goal-Scorer & Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Bouchard remains the most controversial skater in the NHL. His glaring defensive mistakes continue to provide easy ammunition for his doubters to use to slander his game, while his actual goal differential, production, and underlying metrics make it easy to drop statistics that suggest he’s actually a highly effective skater.
Whether you believe in Bouchard’s game or not, the Oilers get a ton of chances when he’s on the ice, and recently many of those have come from Bouchard himself. As with most top offensive defenders, head coach Kris Knoblauch attempts to use Bouchard alongside McDavid as much as possible.
Given the way that McDavid has played recently, it’s no surprise that this has led to a ton of scoring chances for Bouchard, while it doesn’t hurt that his one-timer is one of the top options from Edmonton’s historically strong power play.
Over the last five games, Bouchard has scored four goals and recorded 27 shots on goal from a total of 43 shot attempts. He’s played an average of 25:21 in that span, and it seems likely to expect he will play hefty minutes in a highly favourable role once again in Tuesday’s matchup.
In a matchup where McDavid and Bouchard are likely to spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone, there looks to be value in backing Bouchard to score at +280, and adding him to record at least three shots at -180 appears to be a safe third leg to unlock bet365’s 30% parlay boost.
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