On Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs fired general manager Brad Treliving after just three seasons with the team. In this article, we will touch briefly on the potential candidates, review the Maple Leafs next GM odds (Per Bet99), and reveal our best bet on who will be the next general manager of the Maple Leafs.
While the timing of Treliving’s firing was somewhat surprising, it was undoubtedly a decision that was well warranted. Treliving was the clearcut loser of the vast majority of deals he completed during his tenure with the team, leaving an older, slower roster that has generally been outchanced on a nightly basis this season.
Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley held a press conference on Tuesday to add some context towards the decision, and noted that the team hoped to retool as opposed to rebuild, and discussed desired strengths for the future GM of the team.
When the Leafs hired Treliving in May of 2023 following another disappointing playoff exit, it was noted by president Brendan Shanahan that the new GM would be required to hold previous experience in that position at the NHL level.
Pelley did not state a similar notion at Tuesday’s press conference but stated, “They have to be data-centric. They have to really understand the importance of data and where data is moving. We have just completed a complete rebuild of TFC, all using date combined with cultural checks. That’s what we will do and every single decision we make will be evidence-based. Evidence-based decisions are never wrong, and that’s not to say there’s not room for the heart, not to say there’s no room to check culture, but it’s all evidence-based.”
This is not the type of market that we should ever bet aggressively into based purely on speculation (nor would books allow it) but it is the exact type of market worth reviewing and keeping an eye on, as there are instances where, for a short window, odds will remain on the board after meaningful news breaks.
However, based on what Pelley stated Tuesday, it does seem that Doug Armstrong’s chances of being the next GM may be slightly overvalued. The Leafs have the resources to have a president, GM, and several assistant general managers, who would all perhaps be positioned to handle the more analytical side of things, but Armstrong would not necessarily be an overly logical candidate if MLSE is serious about the statement made Tuesday, and would feel more like a half-measure towards the supposedly updated approach.
While Armstrong has plenty of experience, he’s generally viewed as a more dated, conservative GM, as can be evidenced by his recent work with Hockey Canada.
Armstrong to be next Maple Leafs GM
Current assistant GM Brandon Pridham is a logical candidate and doesn’t look to be a bad bet with a price of +315. Over his 12-year tenure with the Maple Leafs, Pridham has become known for his strong understanding of the salary cap and is a known product to the organization, and based on most indications, Pridham would be on board with the updated approach.
Maple Leafs next GM odds
| Candidate | Maple Leafs Next GM Odds |
| Doug Armstrong | +165 |
| Brandon Pridham | +315 |
| Sunny Mehta | +405 |
| Bill Scott | +440 |
| Chris Pronger | +790 |
| Mark Hunter | +800 |
| George McPhee | +900 |
| Rob Blake | +1100 |
| Kevyn Adams | +1150 |
| Jason Spezza | +1800 |
Maple Leafs next GM best bet: Sunny Mehta +405
Mehta to be next Maple Leafs GM
If the Leafs really want to commit to an analytically-driven approach, stealing Sunny Mehta, who is the current assistant GM and head of analytics of the Florida Panthers, would make a lot of sense.
The anti-analytics crowd likes to use the back-to-back Florida Panthers as proof of their belief that you can’t build teams around data. Which is ironic, as the Panthers held the second-best expected goal share in the NHL last season and, led by Mehta, have a prominent analytics department that has helped find many low-cost diamonds in the rough in recent years.
There are hard-nosed, gritty players that also control play effectively, and the Panthers have done a great job of recruiting those types of players in recent years, while under Treliving the Leafs failed miserably in that regard.
Obviously, Mehta being a key figure in shaping the Panthers’ current roster is something that MLSE should value significantly. He holds a strong reputation for cap efficiency and finding undervalued skaters, while still having an understanding of potential shortcomings of the data.
Mehta has held a very interesting career path, having worked as a professional poker player and derivatives trader before breaking into sports analytics, where he has become a pioneer with regards to building NHL teams with an analytical approach.
Mehta’s work with the Panthers speaks for itself, and while he is far from a born and bred “hockey man” as is typically recycled around the league, there’s a pretty strong case that suggests he would be the best get for a team that will need to find some diamonds in order to realistically get back to contending within a short time frame.
Perhaps the Leafs would likely prefer to have Mehta on the staff in a supplementary role, but it’s possible that only the position of GM would be enticing enough to make him truly evaluate jumping ship.
Mehta is arguably the most suitable candidate relative to what Pelley and MLSE supposedly desires. Him being unproven as a full-fledged GM, and the possibility he would not want the role are concerns, but at a long price of +405 he is worth a shot.
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