We will look to cash a second consecutive NHL same game parlay on March 4 when the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the New Jersey Devils after cashing Tuesday’s guide at +390.
While we’re happy that we hopefully helped a few readers cash on Tuesday, we can’t credit ourselves too greatly, as the 5-4 barnburner between the Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers probably led to success for the majority of prop bettors.
It feels a little more difficult to try and pinpoint the type of game we may see Wednesday between the Devils and Maple Leafs. The majority of both fanbases are likely cheering for losses at this point. That notion is likely particularly true for Toronto’s passionate fanbase, given that the Leafs will have to give the Boston Bruins their first-round pick if it is not ultimately a top-five selection.
We are going to try to go a little off the map here and target a long shot parlay priced at +850 involving some heavy reverse correlation. The parlay is eligible for the 30% boost offered by bet365 for Wednesday’s NHL slate.
- Auston Matthews to Score (+140 as a straight)
- New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-115 as a straight bet)
- Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Maple Leafs/Devils SGP
Leg 1: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal-Scorer (+140 as a straight)
We speculated ahead of Monday’s matchup that Matthews would bounce back from a shot volume perspective playing alongside William Nylander and Bobby McMann on the top line, and that take proved accurate, as he registered eight shots on goal from 11 attempts.
Matthews led all Leafs skaters with 1.29 individual expected goals on Monday but was unable to sneak one past Dan Vladar. His current eight-game goal drought is obviously concerning, but if a scorer of Matthews’ calibre continues to get a remotely comparable amount of looks as he did Monday in his new role, prices in the +140 range should prove valuable.
Matthews has often been deployed in a very defensive role this season, unlike almost any other elite forward. It seemed likely that head coach Craig Berube would stray away from that usage with Nylander on Matthews’ wing and attempt to deploy them more aggressively to create offence, and to some extent that was the case Monday.
It’s a bit of a guessing game as to the level of play we may see from the Leafs as a team in this matchup, but the newly formed top line should be able to generate plenty of chances, and a price of +140 seems to offer a good chance to buy low on Matthews offensively.
Leg 2: New Jersey Devils (-115 as a straight)
This leg correlates strongly against our Matthews goal-scorer bet, as obviously the Devils will need to generate enough offence to win in a game where at the absolute minimum Toronto scores one goal, but likely one or two more. However, the same parlay without this leg pays out at +300. Considering all of the flaws Toronto exhibits right now, the disparity in price does seem wide enough to believe there is value adding this leg in to push the price to +850, as it doesn’t seem that unrealistic to imagine the Leafs can lose this game despite receiving a goal from their captain.
Throughout their last 15 matchups, the Leafs have allowed an average of 4.13 goals against per game. They have allowed 3.9 xGA/60 in that span, and 33.55 shots against per 60, which is the worst mark in the NHL. The team seems to be checking out on Berube’s tactical approach, while the team’s overall lack of depth also seems to be a concern, leading to little time of possession.
Anthony Stolarz has also struggled to an .887 save percentage and 3.40 GAA this season, and is expected to get the start in goal.
The Devils, meanwhile, are 2-2-0 since the restart and hold a 57.98% expected goal share in those matchups. It may not be saying a lot, but they do appear to be a fair bit more engaged than the Leafs right now, and it is worth considering that they are fully healthy, which has rarely been the case this season.
Leg 3: Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135 as a straight bet)
As we touched on, no team in the NHL has allowed more shots on goal over the last 15 games than the Maple Leafs. They spend a ton of time playing in the defensive zone, looking to lean on their goaltenders to make “should be” saves. Hischier was priced at -120 to record three shots on Tuesday versus the Florida Panthers, so this does not seem to be too significant of an adjustment to pass on this prop.
And while Hischier has recorded only four shots on goal over the last two games, his volume has generally been quite consistent of late.
Over the last 11 games, Hischier has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal seven times and has averaged 6.3 shot attempts per game. He’s well adept at powering pucks on goal down low off the cycle, and should provide ample opportunity to do so in this matchup.
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