With Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies back in the lineup, the Toronto Maple Leafs were able to scrape out a 2-1 overtime win in Columbus Wednesday evening and are entering a critical junction of what has been a messy campaign thus far. The Washington Capitals, meanwhile, have been highly productive while playing to a record of 6-3-1 over the last 10 games.
This sets up as a very exciting NHL matchup, and we are going to take an aggressive shot with a three-leg same game parlay that prices out +1100 at bet365.
- Ryan Leonard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 straight bet odds)
- Aliaksei Protas Over 0.5 Points (+110 straight bet odds)
- Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+155 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Maple Leafs vs. Capitals SGP
Leg 1- Ryan Leonard Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 Straight bet odds)
We were high on Leonard’s chances of recording three shots on goal in Monday’s matchup versus the Columbus Blue Jackets at +150, and luckily he was able to get it done in the final minute of play. Though he followed it up with just two shots on goal in Wednesday’s matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets, considering the long price, this is a look that I’m content to continue attacking.
Leonard’s strong shooting abilities were a key reason for his eighth overall selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. He then scored 30 goals in 37 games last season with Boston College (NCAA-D1) and entered the league with a ton of hype as a result.
As you would expect, Leonard has looked to use his strong shot at a high rate this season, as he leads all Capitals skaters in both shot attempts per 60 and shots on goal per 60. His lower time-on-ice averages are a key reason that his overall shot volume is not that high, but over the last three games his time-on-ice average is up to 15:38.
It seems likely that Leonard will continue to garner improved usage given his recent play and current roles. He’s playing on what has been a highly effective third line alongside Connor McMichael and Brandon Duhaime, a unit that holds a 61.8% expected goal share and has generated 3.87 xGF/60 in 32.5 minutes of work together.
Leonard is also currently skating on the Capitals’ top power-play unit, which is a key reason we like this bet. Leonard is manning the top of the right circle, and while Jakob Chychrun and Alex Ovechkin’s shots will always be considered the preferred looks for the team, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Leafs press high on Ovechkin and Chychrun, leaving Leonard’s look as the open option.
And in case you’ve not heard, the Leafs have been pretty shaky defensively this season and are allowing opposing teams a ton of shots on target. Over the last 12 games, the Leafs have allowed 33.81 shots against per 60, which is the worst mark in the NHL by a wide margin during the month of November.
Leg 2-Aliaksei Protas Over 0.5 Points (+110 Straight bet odds)
Backing Protas to record a point was the losing leg of our four-leg parlay in Wednesday’s matchup between the Capitals and Jets, but it was a bit of a tough-luck loss, as Protas’s line did generate a goal at even strength, and he was involved in a number of high-quality scoring opportunities.
Out of all units in the NHL that have played at least 50 minutes together, none have generated more xGF/60 than the Capitals’ current second unit of Protas, Tom Wilson, and Justin Sourdif. They have generated 5.18 xGF/60 in 76.4 minutes of play, which is drastically higher than even the second closest unit, and 76.4 minutes is a fairly decent sample size.
Wilson is a point-per-game player this season and tallied 33 goals in 81 games last season. Protas, meanwhile, put up 66 points in 76 games last season. The Capitals’ second unit may not have the same high-end skill as other units that may generate chances at a similar rate, but they have enough offensive upside that I’m happy to keep targeting the unit given the absurd rate at which they have controlled play.
Leg 3-Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+155 Straight bet odds)
While the Capitals have been playing some excellent hockey of late, they are still giving up a fairly high amount of goals against, and in a game featuring a high total of 6.5 following American Thanksgiving, I’m still happy to include one leg related to Toronto generating some offence in this matchup.
Over the last 10 games, the Capitals have allowed 3.1 goals against per game and 3.39 xGA/60. Their penalty kill ranks 29th in success rate this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Leafs’ underwhelming power play have some success in this matchup with Matthews back in the mix.
Matthews had three shots on goal and generated 0.62 individual expected goals in his return to the lineup on Wednesday versus the Blue Jackets. Prior to his injury, he had scored in four of his last six games, and he’s been getting a ton of chances all season long. With 10.6 expected goals, Matthews still ranks 20th in the NHL despite playing only 18 games.
Though Matthews has not been scoring at the rate we are seeing, that seems to be well compensated by the fact that he is considered only the third-most likely Leaf to score in Friday’s matchup. Considering how many chances he has been generating, I’m happy to add Matthews to score to our parlay given a price of +155.