The Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets will take centre stage Wednesday evening when they square off at 7:37 ET in the lone NHL matchup on the schedule.
My best bet for Wednesday’s clash between the Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets is backing the Blue Jackets to win at -115.
Blue Jackets moneyline
Blue Jackets moneyline
The Maple Leafs had much higher preseason expectations than the Blue Jackets entering the year and finished with 19 more points than the Blue Jackets last season. At their best, Auston Matthews and William Nylander are, by a margin, the best two offensive skaters in this matchup.
For those reasons it’s scary to fade the Leafs when they are only slight underdogs, but there is a pretty strong case for the Blue Jackets here given Toronto’s unconvincing start to the season.
The Maple Leafs received elite goaltending from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll during head coach Craig Berube’s debut season with the team, as the two combined for the fourth-highest save percentage in the league and a +42.6 GSAx rating.
The Maple Leafs also succeeded on 24.6% of power play opportunities in 2024-25 but have not been nearly as effective so far this year with Mitch Marner out of the picture.
Due to less dominant goaltending and an inferior power play than it offered last season, the fact that Toronto has been outchanced in even strength under Berube has become more noteworthy.
The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have been quietly solid this season, playing to the third-best expected goal share in the league at even strength despite playing a fairly tough schedule.
As both teams started their number-one goaltending options on Tuesday, Cayden Primeau will face off against Elvis Merzlikins in this matchup. Both were comparably shaky last season, but Merzlikins is more proven at the NHL level and has gotten off to a better start this year with a .915 save percentage and 2.96 GAA in his four starts.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets odds
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -105 |
| Blue Jackets moneyline odds | -115 |
| Puck line odds | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260), Blue Jackets -1.5 (+210) |
| Date/time | Oct. 29, 7:37 p.m. ET |
Betting Toronto Maple Leafs (5-4-1 SU, 2-8 ATS, 8-2 o/u)
While a record of 5-4-1 is far from a disaster, it has been a fairly unconvincing start to the season for Berube’s Maple Leafs. They have played to a -1 goal differential and own a 46.29% expected goal share in even-strength play.
Yes, there are some intricacies in hockey that expected goals data does not quantify, which Berube’s greatest believers will happily point out.
Still, the xG data is an effective starting point when analyzing a team. The numbers are less complicated than they seem, though, calculating the expected danger of each scoring chance based on a hefty sample of play and providing a percentage scoring share based on how many chances teams generate versus how many they allow.
Last season, the Maple Leafs held just a 49.65% expected goal share at even strength and allowed 3.28 xGA/60 across all strengths.
Perhaps Berube’s side did clear out the front of the net and suppress true ‘Grade A’ scoring chances better than those results indicated, but it also seems quite clear that incredible goaltending helped the team’s overall process look sharper than it actually was.
The numbers suggest that the Maple Leafs have been even less dominant at even strength this season. The eye test would agree, as their defensive core has had a hard time driving plays up the ice, while the top six has regressed thanks to the loss of Marner and lesser play from Matthews and Nylander.
While goaltending was a concern for the Leafs last season, it could be an issue in this matchup with Primeau likely to start. In 11 starts last season, Primeau played to a -9.5 GSAx and .836 save percentage. He’s stopped just .875 percent of the shots he faced in his first two starts of this season.
Betting Columbus Blue Jackets (5-4-0 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 o/u)
In the very early stages of this young season, the Blue Jackets look poised to build on last season’s total of 89 points and push for a playoff spot. They already have authored impressive wins over the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning, while two of their losses have come versus the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils, who both look exceptional.
The Blue Jackets hold the third-best expected goal share in the NHL at even strength, despite facing a fairly difficult slate of opponents.
Many of their key young skaters have been playing at a higher level defensively this season, and they have allowed only 2.49 xGA/60 in even-strength play after being one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL last season.
Goaltending was one of the Blue Jackets’ greatest issues last year, but it was a concern that was magnified because of their suspect defensive play. They have received much better play in goal this season from Jet Greaves and Merzlikins, with Merzlikins in particular looking like an early bounce-back candidate.
An elite first line and strong top defensive pairing have given the Blue Jackets a really strong foundation this season, and if their depth pieces can continue offering solid play, they could be a quietly formidable side this season.
The Blue Jackets’ top offensive line of Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan, and Dmitri Voronkov has outscored opponents 7 to 1 this season and holds a +23 goal differential dating back to the start of last year.
Zach Werenski continues to perform like a true number-one defender and leads a strong top pairing alongside 2022 12th-overall pick Denton Mateychuk.
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