The Ottawa Senators will look to continue their impressive push for a playoff spot on March 11 when they host the Montreal Canadiens in an intriguing NHL matchup to craft a same game parlay for.
The Senators are 9-1-2 over their last 12 matchups. They have scored 3.92 goals per game in that span and allowed only 2.08 goals against per game. Still, they are five points back of the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot with one game in hand and seven points back of the Canadiens with equal games played.
The Canadiens will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back Wednesday after earning a convincing 3-1 win over the rival Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday in Montreal. Montreal holds an excellent record of 35-18-10, which is a key reason it is likely to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
Our SGP prices out at +310 at the time of writing and is also eligible for our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365. Bet365 is also offering a super boost on Nick Suzuki to record over 1.5 total shots, which I’ll also outline below.
- Thomas Chabot Over 0.5 Points (-120 as a straight bet)
- Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Habs/Senators SGP
Leg 1: Thomas Chabot Over 0.5 Points (-120 as a straight)
The Senators’ playoff chances were dealt a massive blow Saturday evening when Jake Sanderson suffered a significant upper-body injury. Sanderson has been among the best defenders in the league this season with a +18 expected goals above replacement rating to go alongside 48 points. If Ottawa had received more competent goaltending for the majority of the season and/or if defensive play was more heavily weighted by voters, Sanderson would probably be a fringe Norris Trophy contender.
With Sanderson sidelined, Chabot becomes the team’s number-one defender and should see greater usage in roles more suited to offensive production. Chabot has put up 13 points and has been offering a high level of play in his own right while the team has made its desperate push for a playoff berth.
In what was the first game of Sanderson’s absence on Monday, Chabot recorded an assist and skated for 24:29. He also recorded two assists in the game in which Sanderson suffered the injury on Saturday and played 26:12.
Over the last 10 games, the Senators power play has succeeded on 26.7% of opportunities and is still likely to offer better-than-average results with Chabot now overtaking Sanderson’s role as quarterback.
In a game featuring a total of 6.5 and the Senators as heavy favourites, there looks to be value in backing Chabot to record a point at -120 considering his expected roles on the top power play and top pairing.
Leg 2: Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+135 as a straight bet)
Cozens has also come on strong for the Senators of late, as he’s recorded five goals over the last five games while playing alongside Brady Tkachuk and Ridly Greig. Cozens also plays on the Senators’ top power-play unit, which, as noted, has been in strong form of late.
Cozens has averaged three shots per game over the last five matchups, as well as 5.0 shot attempts per game in that span.
The Tkachuk-Cozens-Greig unit holds a 64% expected goal share across 160.5 minutes of play this season and has generated 68.4 shot attempts per 60, which is the second-highest mark among Senators lines that have played over 100 minutes together this season.
While the Canadiens are a fairly formidable side overall, they have been below league average defensively of late. They have allowed 28.14 shots against per 60 and 3.92 xGA/60 over the last 10 games.
At +135, we look to be getting a good number to ride with one of the NHL’s hottest goal-scorers to pour three or more shots on goal, in a matchup where the Senators should be able to create a solid output of offensive chances.
Bet365’s Super Boost: Nick Suzuki 2+ Shots on Goal: +100 (Bonus Bet)
Bet365 is offering a Super Boost on Suzuki to record two or more shots on goal in this matchup. As is generally the case for most super boosts, this boost looks to hold strong expected value. The limits on these boosts are low as they are mainly a promotional tool, but this boost, along with most others, are worth maxing out so long as you are comfortable with the potential loss.
Suzuki is priced at +132 to record under 1.5 total shots at bet365 and well past plus money on every regulated online sportsbook offering a line for under 1.5 total shots.
Many bettors get frustrated when boosts lose, and often feel as though the bets had been specifically picked to falter when that is the case. However, the regular price for Suzuki to record under 1.5 shots on goal still suggests this boost will miss 43% of the time; a loss on this bet would not be something worth turning into a conspiracy theorist over, but getting +100 instead of -175 makes it worth playing.
With those things said, from a perspective more specific to Suzuki recording two or more shots on goal, I would not be interested in this bet at -175. The Senators are an elite shot-suppression team, and should be poised for a detailed defensive performance in this critical spot in which they do hold a rest advantage.
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