The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will renew their rivalry for the third time this season Saturday, having split the first two matchups with the home side winning each game, 5-2. The Leafs closed at -165 on opening night, but were priced as +120 underdogs when these teams met in Montreal on November 22nd. As the Leafs are now offering a more complete roster and have been in better form, they are priced at -135 in Saturday’s matchup.
This exciting all-Canadian NHL matchup should be a good one, with both sides desperate to earn two points versus a bitter rival. At +220, there looks to be some value with our simple same game parlay that consists of two legs on bet365.
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-135 straight bet odds)
- Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+125 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Canadiens/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-135 straight bet odds)
When these two sides met on November 22nd, I did write up another same game parlay for the game, and backing the Canadiens at -135 was the leading leg (lost as Cole Caufield did not score). That write-up was pretty harsh on the Leafs, calling out their poor tactical play, but also a big part of the take was the fact that the Canadiens’ injury list featured far fewer true needle-movers.
The Leafs’ 5-2 loss in that matchup currently feels like a potential turning point in the season. Since that defeat, they have won four of five games and played to a goal differential of +11. They hold a 56.76% expected goal share over the last five matchups, and it seems as though head coach Craig Berube has made some tactical adjustments and has put more emphasis on driving possession, which in turn is leading to fewer minutes spent running around in the defensive zone.
It’s also no surprise that Toronto’s turnaround comes now that Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies and Nicolas Roy are back in the lineup. I’m still not sold that a healthy Leafs roster would have been as effective as most would have expected this season, but injuries have certainly played a key role in their struggles.
While Matthews and Knies returning to the top line has certainly helped, Toronto’s new-look third line of Roy, Dakota Joshua, and Bobby McMann has been excellent in each of the last three games, which is a massive development because Toronto’s bottom-six has been getting roasted by the opposition all season long.
Joseph Woll has also been razor-sharp this season, which has been another key reason for their improved results of late. Woll is expected to miss this game with a lower-body injury, which will mean Dennis Hildeby would start in goal. While we Leafs bettors would still prefer to see Woll starting in this matchup, Hildeby has been rock-solid with a +5.2 GSAx and .919 save percentage in seven appearances this season.
The Canadiens, meanwhile, continue to struggle defensively, and it’s becoming fair to question if head coach Martin St. Louis has the answers from a tactical perspective. Montreal was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, but snuck into the playoffs thanks to a strong record in one-goal games and excellent goaltending.
Montreal looked sharper defensively early on this season, but as the rest of the league has trended into greater form, it has started to display many of the same concerns. Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens are just 4-5-1 and have allowed 3.68 xGA/60 and allowed shots on goal at the sixth-highest rate per 60.
We’ve seen the favourite and home team win the first two matchups of this season series, and it seems logical for that trend to continue Saturday as the Leafs seem to be picking up some meaningful momentum.
Leg 2-Auston Matthews Anytime Goal-Scorer (+125 straight bet odds)
Auston Matthews might not be the goal-scorer that he once was, a point that has been beaten to death by most media outlets, but he’s still scored 11 goals in 22 games this season, with one goal in 10 of those matchups. For as unproductive as he has been by his standards, betting Matthews to score at +125 in every game this season would still have been a break-even proposition based on an implied probability of 44.4%.
Matthews has generated 12.2 expected goals in 22 games this season, and still leads all Leafs skaters with 10.84 shots per 60. In five games since returning to the lineup, he’s poured 19 shots on target and generated 2.51 expected goals. Given that he’s obviously proven to be a better-than-average finisher in his career, those outputs are highly encouraging entering this matchup.
Matthews has scored in two of three games entering this matchup, and one of those was very encouraging, as he beat Tristan Jarry clean from a distance with his trademark wrist shot. It’s only one goal, but over the last two seasons he has not scored on that type of shot nearly as often as he did at his best, though he’s still been fairly productive in spite of that.
And though it’s hard to make a case for Max Domi’s overall effectiveness, I don’t mind the fact that Matthews is skating alongside Domi for the sake of this prop. For all his flaws, Domi is a capable passer who will almost always defer, and he has assisted both of Matthews’ last two goals.
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