The Boston Bruins will look to respond from an ugly loss on home ice versus the Toronto Maple Leafs when they take on the scorching hot Buffalo Sabres Wednesday evening. Our three-leg Sabres vs. Bruins same game parlay for today holds a price of +350 at the time of writing on our top ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
Following Tuesday’s surprising loss, the Bruins are one point clear of the New York Islanders for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, having played one less game. Boston is currently priced at -140 to make the playoffs, but would become a heavy favourite to earn a spot if it were to steal two points from this difficult matchup.
The Sabres remain in a close battle for the Atlantic Division crown with the Tampa Bay Lightning, sitting two points up entering Wednesday’s matchup, and having played one more game. They are 33-6-3 over their last 42 games, with 29 of those wins coming in regulation, and hold a dominant mark of 22-9-3 on home ice this season.
- Sabres Regulation Win (-135 as a straight)
- Bruins Under 2.5 Goals (-105 as a straight)
- Josh Norris Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-105 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Bruins/Sabres SGP
Leg 1: Buffalo Sabres to Win in Regulation (-135 as a straight)
The Sabres hold an .821 point percentage over a 42-game sample of play. For one half of an NHL season, they have played at a 138-point pace, three better than the Bruins’ historic 135-point campaign in 2023-24.
As you would expect, the Sabres hold a high PDO of 105.01 and have fared abnormally well in close games during that stretch of play. While Buffalo’s process and underlying metrics might not suggest it is truly playing at a historically strong level, there is still a ton to like about its recent form, especially relative to a Bruins side that likely will not have Jeremy Swayman starting in goal.
The Sabres offer four well-balanced offensive units, and have a number of quality play-drivers mixed in effectively alongside the more talented scoring threats. The Sabres have 10 forwards with at least eight points over the last 14 games, and hold a clear edge in terms of offensive depth in this matchup.
Throughout 14 games the Sabres hold a 52.37% expected goal share and have generated 3.76 xGF/60. While those are not entirely dominant marks, they are solid underlying results for a team with legitimate scoring threats on each of the top three lines, and that continues to receive exceptional play in goal.
The Bruins hold an expected goal share of 45.84% in 14 games since the Olympic break and have allowed 29.33 shots against per 60. They hold a respectable 7-4-3 record in that span, but are barely above even in terms of goal differential, having scored 2.86 goals per game while allowing 2.79 goals against per game.
A major reason why the Bruins have remained somewhat successful of late has been the play of Swayman, who holds a +28.3 GSAx rating and .908 save percentage in 48 appearances this season.
At the time of writing, the Bruins have not confirmed if it will be Swayman or backup Joonas Korpisalo. It wouldn’t be entirely shocking in this spot if the Bruins were to offer Swayman starts on back-to-back evenings for the first time this season, but it seems more likely that it will be Korpisalo, who holds a -3.6 GSAx and .891 save percentage.
Leg 2: Boston Bruins Team Total Under 2.5 (-105 as a straight)
The Bruins have started to slow down offensively of late, having averaged 2.86 goals per game over the last 15 matchups. They made numerous offseason additions, which worked out better than was expected this season, but it’s still surprising to me the way they have produced offensively given the lack of truly elite offensive talents.
The Sabres have allowed only 2.21 goals against per game across 14 matchups since the Olympic break. While incredible goaltending has been a huge part of the story, they have allowed only 25.61 shots against per game in that span, and do seem to be elevating their level of play defensively with postseason drawing near, which has been a story of late from many of the playoff contenders.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to get the start in goal, and he has played to a .911 save percentage and +9.9 GSAx rating across 28 appearances this season. And over the last 10 games, he holds a .929 save percentage and 2.19 GAA.
Leg 3: Josh Norris Over 1.5 Shots on Goal: (-105 as a straight)
While Norris is not a pure volume shooter, he is a quality scoring threat who is currently in solid roles to generate chances on target. Norris is set to remain on the right flank of the Sabres’ strong top power-play unit Wednesday, and will skate on what has been an excellent third line alongside Noah Ostlund and Josh Doan.
Norris has averaged 3.6 shot attempts per game over the last five matchups and managed nine on target. He is a quality goal scorer, and based on his playing style and current usage, this seems like a good spot to back him in this market versus a Bruins side that lacks depth, and has allowed close to 30 shots on goal per game since the Olympic break.
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