Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 11-game slate.
Best bet – Connor Hellebuyck over 21.5 saves: -105
Connor Hellebuyck over 21.5 saves
Hellebuyck has not missed a beat this season since becoming the first goaltender to win the Hart Trophy in 10 years last June. He’s already saved 8.6 goals above expected and holds a .926 save percentage in eight appearances this season.
The Jets may insulate true grade “A” scoring chances at a slightly better rate than their metrics suggest, but it is still quite concerning how little of the overall run of play they have carried this season.
Winnipeg has allowed 31.26 shots against per 60 this season, which is the third-worst mark in the NHL. It ranks dead last in expected goal share at even strength but has not been exposed for that flaw thanks to strong finishing and incredible play in goal from Hellebuyck.
The Blackhawks offer a strong matchup for the Jets to hang in more effectively from a defensive perspective, but online sportsbooks still seem to be overreacting to the matchup to set Hellebuyck’s save prop this low given how much time the Jets have spent defending this season.
Hellebuyck has averaged 28.15 saves per game this season. While the Blackhawks likely will not generate as many shots on target as the Jets’ previous opponents, their lesser offensive depth and overall finishing ability should ensure a fairly strong game script for this prop to hit.
Best bet – Marco Rossi over 0.5 points: -115
Marco Rossi over 0.5 points
Considering Rossi’s strong start to the season, as well as his expected usage, oddsmakers aren’t giving much respect to the former ninth-overall pick considering he is priced at -115 to record a single point.
At age 24, Rossi should be nearing his true prime skating in his third NHL season, and that has looked to be accurate so far this season. He’s racked up 10 points in the first 10 games and has put up four points during his current three-game points streak.
Rossi remained alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Marcus Johansson at Thursday’s morning skate and also remained on the team’s second power-play unit.
Led by his elite offensive metrics, Rossi holds a +17.6 expected goals above replacement rating dating back to the start of last year. Head coach John Hynes has not always been keen to offer Rossi an overly significant role dating back to the start of last season, but Rossi has averaged 18:15 of ice time this season and certainly appears deserving of those minutes.
The Penguins have been surprisingly strong at suppressing goals against this season, which largely comes down to how well Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs have played in goal.
Still, the Penguins have allowed the third-highest xGA/60 in the league at even strength this season, which is noteworthy for our prop, as Rossi is not on the top power-play unit but should have a great chance to produce at even strength alongside Kaprizov.
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