We’re only through the first two weeks of the NFL season, but we’re already seeing some mind-blowing shifts in Super Bowl outright odds.
Exactly 10 teams are off to perfect 2-0 starts, leaving an additional 10 teams with a 0-2 record. With competition so fierce to make the NFL playoffs each season, one game is often the difference between looking ahead to next year or competing for the Lombardi Trophy.
Let’s take a look at some of the notable risers and fallers in Super Bowl odds at the conclusion of Week 2:
Notable risers
- Green Bay Packers +650 after opening +2000 (all odds courtesy of BetMGM). The Packers now have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl after the Baltimore Ravens (+550) and Buffalo Bills (+500) after posting impressive wins over the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions. They look incredible on both sides of the ball, and now they’ll enter a soft portion of their schedule that includes dates with the Cleveland Browns (0-2), Dallas Cowboys (1-1), and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-0, but QB Joe Burrow now injured for three months).
“The Packers have looked like one of the best teams in football after impressive wins against two playoff teams from last year,” BetMGM Senior Trading Manager Christian Cipollini told Canada Sports Betting via email. “Green Bay has quickly moved from +2000 to +650 to win the Super Bowl. Since Week 1, 29% of money (most) is on the Cheeseheads to lift the Lombardi Trophy.”
Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl
- Los Angeles Chargers +1600 after opening +2200. The Chargers have improved their standing from a fringe playoff team to a fringe Super Bowl contender after beginning the season with wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. They’ll face a stiff test in Week 3 at home against the Denver Broncos, so we’ll see what they’re really made of this Sunday against one of the best defences in the league. Quarterback Justin Herbert has also improved his NFL MVP odds to +800 after opening with +2500 odds.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2200 after opening +4000. The scrappy Buccaneers are 2-0 after opening the season with wins over the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons to hold the top spot in the NFC South. They only boast a +4 point differential after those two matchups, but they’ll have a great chance of improving to 3-0 next week against the New York Jets. Their schedule gets increasingly more difficult after that, though, with games looming against the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks (in Seattle), San Francisco 49ers, and Detroit Lions.
Notable fallers
- Cincinnati Bengals +2000 to +6600. How important is Joe Burrow to the Bengals’ Super Bowl chances? Well, the 2-0 Bengals went from a 4.7% implied probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy to 1.49% after it was announced Burrow would miss the next three months of action due to a toe injury. Burrow was also the most-bet player at BetMGM to win NFL MVP with +750 odds prior to his injury.
- Houston Texans +2500 to +5000. The Texans opened the season with losses to the Bucs and Los Angeles Rams, putting them in the hole in their pursuit of an AFC South title. They were the favourites at +105 to win the division crown prior to the season opener, but now they face +250 odds after the Indianapolis Colts jumped out to a surprising 2-0 start. Houston was projected to boast one of the best defences in the league, but injuries at the wide receiver position have stalled the offence.
- Kansas City Chiefs +750 to +1400. Are the Chiefs really 0-2? Yes, it’s true, but it’s not time to panic just yet. Losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and Chargers out of the gate is disappointing for this dynasty, but now they’ll have a chance to beat the lowly New York Giants into submission in Week 3 before another tough test against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. In fact, now might be a great time to bet the Chiefs at +1400 while their Super Bowl stock is low. You might not see odds this long on the Chiefs for the remainder of the season.