The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers will take centre stage Tuesday evening when they square off at 9:07 ET in the lone NHL matchup on the schedule, a rematch of the last two Western Conference Finals.
My best bet for Tuesday’s clash between the Stars and Oilers is backing Leon Draisaitl to hold a positive Plus/Minus rating at +135, and would pivot to backing Draisaitl to score at +115 if you are unable to bet Draisaitl to hold a positive rating.
Stars vs. Oilers best bet
Leon Draisaitl plus/minus over 0.5
This is obviously an obscure market, and some readers might be thinking, “What on earth is the science to liking this type of prop?” This is not a prop that I hit on often, especially given that it’s mainly only available on bet365, but when you really dive into this matchup, it sticks out considering the +135 price tag.
First off, it’s important to point out that special teams play does not count towards plus/minus rating. I’ll also note that I completely understand plus/minus is archaic and flawed compared to true goal differential, but we are simply looking at plus/minus for the sake of the bet.
The Oilers have not been remotely good at five-on-five this season, but lines centred by Draisaitl have fared quite well. When Draisaitl has led his own line separated from Connor McDavid, the Oilers still hold a 65% goal share in those minutes. Based on yesterday’s practice, Draisaitl is set to play with underrated play-driver Vasily Podkolzin and Andrew Mangiapane in tonight’s matchup.
Draisaitl’s two-way game has improved significantly in recent years and was a key reason why he rightfully finished as the Hart Trophy runner-up in 2024-25. Draisaitl was utterly dominant at both ends of the ice last season, finishing with a +32 rating, after holding a +26 rating the year previous.
Plus/minus is obviously heavily influenced by overall team success, which is one of the many arguments why the statistic is not that effective. As bad as the Oilers have been at even strength this season, Draisaitl still holds a +6 rating. The Oilers are favourites in tonight’s game, however, and my expectation is that they are slowly going to start turning the corner.
While the Stars are once again a true Stanley Cup contender, just like last season, they are not that overpowering at even strength. Over the last 15 games, they have played to a 48.87% expected goal share. One reason they have masked that flaw is that they rank second in power play success rate, which won’t hurt Draisaitl in this market, as well as potent offensive play from Mikko Rantanen, who will not play in this matchup.
The Stars also become a much more livable matchup for this prop as Thomas Harley is currently sidelined, leaving the team with only one truly convincing defensive pairing led by Miro Heiskanen, who will likely be a Norris Trophy nominee this season. The Stars will likely still opt to play Heiskanen head-to-head versus McDavid’s line as much as possible, leaving Draisaitl in a more favourable position.
Considering the Stars’ relatively average even-strength play, and the absences of Harley and Rantanen, this is a sneaky-good matchup to back Draisaitl finishing with a positive rating considering the +135 price tag.
Stars vs. Oilers odds
| Stars moneyline odds | +115 |
| Oilers moneyline odds | -135 |
| Puck line odds | Stars +1.5 (-220), Oilers -1.5 (+180) |
| Date/time | Nov. 25, 9:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Dallas Stars (13-9 SU, 8-14 ATS, 10-12 o/u)
The Stars have generally not been getting as much credit as most recreational bettors would expect in recent matchups, and the market has taken a fairly clear stance that they are a regression candidate recently. In their most recent matchup versus the Calgary Flames, Dallas closed as only a -135 favourite, and was outplayed in an eventual shootout loss.
As we touched on earlier on in the article, the Stars have generally not been controlling play at even strength at the rate of other Stanley Cup contenders. They have a very talented and deep offensive core, which should allow them to continue finishing chances at a higher than average rate this season, but they have certainly not looked as fundamentally sharp as teams such as the Colorado Avalanche or Carolina Hurricanes.
The Stars’ offensive depth won’t be nearly as strong as it typically is in Tuesday’s matchup however, as Rantanen and Matt Duchene will be sidelined.
The Oilers were able to expose the Stars defensively in the last two Western Conference Finals, and with Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin and Nils Lundkvist currently sidelined, their defensive core currently does not look overly convincing relative to what you would expect from a team sporting a record of 13-5-4.
This will feel like a big start to Stars netminder Jake Oettinger, who has been torched by the Oilers in the previous two postseasons. Edmonton’s offensive play has looked drastically worse this season; however, Oettinger has gotten off to a solid start with a .902 save percentage and 2.72 GAA this season.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (10-14 SU, 8-16 ATS, 14-10 o/u)
There’s been some contention among Oilers media regarding whether or not the Oilers have changed tactically this season. Head coach Kris Knoblauch stated last week that they have not necessarily intended to change by design, but that they had arrived at the point where stylistic changes were being reviewed.
With that in mind, it suggests there’s definitely been some “slippage” where players are straying away from the systems that led the team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, while perhaps teams are solving the Oilers at five-on-five to a greater extent, as well as the fact that Edmonton’s roster turnover has not worked out overly well.
At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will return in tonight’s matchup or not, but his eventual return could prove quite significant. Lines centred by Adam Henrique hold just a 32% goal share this season, so it’s by no means unrealistic that Nugent-Hopkins could prove to be a significant upgrade in that role.
This is Edmonton’s first home matchup since completing a strenuous seven-game Eastern road trip, which included matchups versus all three of the favourites to win the Eastern Conference. The Oilers went 3-3-1 on the road trip, which could arguably be viewed as a step in the right direction, but they will still certainly need to elevate their level of success over the next several weeks as they get into a softer stretch in the schedule.
Stuart Skinner is expected to get the start in goal Tuesday. While Skinner has not been great with an .885 save percentage across 17 appearances this season, his +2.8 GSAx suggests his ugly surface-level stats still have plenty to do with how poorly the Oilers have defended in front of him.
The Oilers will remain without one key blue-liner in this matchup as Jake Walman remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury.