Game 7 of the MLB American League Championship Series between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will get underway at 8:08 p.m. ET on Monday, with the winner advancing to the World Series to play the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Our best Mariners vs. Blue Jays player prop bet for Game 7 of the ALCS is George Kirby over 1.5 earned runs.
George Kirby over 1.5 earned runs
George Kirby over 1.5 earned runs
Kirby has had an awful postseason to this point, recording an 0-1 record with an ugly 7.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across 14 innings despite boasting an impressive 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Toronto torched him for eight runs on eight hits in Game 3 of this series, while also bashing three home runs off of Seattle’s star right-hander.
Historically, Toronto’s lineup has had success against Kirby, with the team collectively owning a .310/.329/.535 slash line with an .854 OPS in 71 at-bats against the righty. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., in particular, sees Kirby quite well, going 5-for-12 with three extra-base hits off of him in his career.
Most online sportsbooks have Kirby’s recorded outs line set very low at over/under at 11.5 outs, which isn’t particularly surprising in a do-or-die Game 7, where there is very little margin for error. However, Kirby has allowed two or more earned runs in seven of his last nine starts and in 18 of his 26 outings (69%) this season.
Given Toronto’s recent and historical success against Kirby, betting on Seattle’s starting pitcher to allow over 1.5 earned runs in this contest at 55.5% implied odds seems like a shrewd play.