The 2026 MLB season kicks off with the NL Central poised for chaos, as win total over/unders offer sharp betting value across a mix of surging contenders, sneaky underdogs, and full rebuilds. Greg Warren breaks down FanGraphs and PECOTA forecasts for each team in the division and offers up some betting predictions using the best MLB betting sites.
Related: AL East season win totals, AL Central season win totals, AL West season win totals, NL East season win totals
Chicago Cubs (over/under 88.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 85 wins
PECOTA projection: 89 wins
It was a very busy offseason for the Cubs, who made several notable additions and subtractions from their roster following a 92-win season. Outfielder Kyle Tucker left via free agency to join the Los Angeles Dodgers, but the team did bring in stud third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year deal to help fill the void. Edward Cabrera was also brought into the organization via trade with the Miami Marlins to help stabilize the starting rotation, but Chicago had to part with top prospect Owen Caissie in order to secure the deal.
Chicago once again looks solid across the board heading into the 2026 season, and it’ll be further bolstered once lefty Justin Steele fully recovers from elbow surgery and returns to the mound, likely in May or June. Until then, Chicago’s pitching rotation is deep enough to keep the team afloat, and offensively, the team should rank at least in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories.
Pick: Pass
This win total appears to be set just right at 88.5. Take a pass and put your money elsewhere.
Milwaukee Brewers (over/under 84.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 81 wins
PECOTA projection: 81 wins
The Brewers were the most underrated team in the majors from a betting perspective last spring, with PECOTA projecting 81 wins for the squad that went on to win an incredible 97 games to win the NL Central. However, PECOTA appears unfazed by Milwaukee’s standout 2025 season and is rolling out a projection of 81 wins once again for the Brew Crew.
After once boasting one of the most prized starting rotations in baseball, the Brewers dealt away another standout pitcher this winter, sending Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets on an expiring contract. It was the third straight offseason the Brewers had traded away a premium pitcher in an effort to keep payroll low and their prospect cupboard stocked. However, the club did retain right-hander Brandon Woodruff via the qualifying offer while also trading for reliever Angel Zerpa, who was outstanding for Venezuela at the World Baseball Classic.
The team also traded away promising young third baseman Caleb Durbin to the Boston Red Sox for pitching help, leaving a considerable hole at the hot corner that will likely be temporarily filled by veteran Luis Renfigo.
Pick: Over 84.5 wins (-115)
It’s intimidating to make a prediction on the Brewers after they thoroughly embarrassed bettors that took the under 81 wins on their win total a year ago, and they enter the 2026 campaign with a wide range of potential outcomes. However, there’s enough talent on this squad to compete for the division title if everything breaks their way, and we’re not going to make the mistake of underestimating them again. Take the over 84.5 wins cautiously.
Brewers over 84.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds (over/under 80.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 77 wins
PECOTA projection: 78 wins
The Reds finished with a respectable 83 wins a year ago, but our projection systems aren’t too keen on them replicating that success in 2026.
It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Reds, who signed lovable third baseman Eugenio Suarez and outfielder JJ Bleday to one-year deals. Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar, Nick Martinez, and Zack Littell won’t be back, but those departures shouldn’t hurt the team’s chances of finishing around .500 too much.
One major setback this spring has been flamethrower Hunter Greene’s elbow surgery, which should keep him out of action until around the All-Star break in July. Greene, one of the hardest throwers in baseball, was expected to be at the top of Cincinnati’s rotation, and not having him for the first half of the season certainly knocks a few wins off the team’s projections.
Pick: Over 80.5 wins (+100)
The Reds have one of the most underrated and unheralded rosters in baseball and could be one of the surprise teams in the NL. Manager Terry Francona is a true mastermind, and his teams over the years have thrived as underdogs. He’ll find a way to make sure this team finishes above .500 and collects at least 81 wins.
Reds over 80.5 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates (over/under 78.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 82 wins
PECOTA projection: 82 wins
Is this the year we finally see the lowly Pirates break out and finish above .500? It hasn’t happened since the 2018 Pirates went 82-79, but this year’s squad is showing promise after an offseason overhaul.
Pirates GM Ben Cherington is finally making a push for the playoffs after bringing in second baseman Brandon Lowe, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, starting pitcher Jose Urquidy, and reliever Gregory Soto, among others.
Those additions, combined with the team’s existing stable of young pitchers, have everyone in Pittsburgh excited about the chances of the team being competitive in 2026. And if that’s enough, the Pirates boast the No. 1 prospect in baseball, shortstop Konnor Griffin.
Pick: Over 78.5 wins (-110)
The Pirates have been the sexy early pick at online sportsbooks in all kinds of MLB futures markets, and we’re buying into the hype of Paul Skenes and Griffin putting on a show together. The additions of several proven veterans should really help the younger developing players on the roster, and the starting pitching staff looks strong coming out of spring. The push for 80-plus wins is on.
Pirates over 78.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals (over/under 69.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 75 wins
PECOTA projection: 66 wins
They’ve torn everything down in St. Louis as the team looks forward to a rebuild. Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, and Miles Mikolas are all gone, leaving room for prospects to sink or swim on the roster in 2026.
There are going to be some steep growing pains in St. Louis this season, and the success of the team largely hinges on its young anchors, like Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker.
Pick: Under 69.5 wins (-110)
The pitching staff is in absolute shambles, and don’t expect this team to rank in the top half of the league in offensive statistical categories either. Ride the under as the Cardinals fully bottom out in 2026, as they had planned.