07/01/19 National Champion Predictions
NCAA Football Bet Tracker: Pregame Wager - Bet Cashed - Ticket Trashed
Bettors get a "Best vs Best" battle as #1 Alabama clashes with #2 Clemson to close out the 2018-19 US College football season. A soggy field greets the teams when the NCAAF National Championship contest kicks off at 8:00 PM ET at Levi's Stadium, in Santa Clara, CA. During semifinal contests, the Crimson Tide advanced with a 45-34 Orange Bowl win over the Oklahoma Sooners while the Tigers trounced Notre Dame 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl Classic. Both teams are running white-hot heading into in this much anticipate battle.
National Championship: #1 Alabama (14–0) vs #2 Clemson (14-0)
Alabama numbers are affected due to playing a slightly tougher schedule than Clemson. This is the fourth straight year the Tigers and Crimson Tide have clashed in the College Football Playoff series. Alabama won the 2016 Championship 45-40, Clemson claimed the 2017 NCAAF title 35-31, prior to Alabama winning the 2018 Sugar Bowl semifinal clash with Clemson. In their only contest against a similar AP Top 25 team, the Tide rolled over Texas A&M 45-23 while the Tigers claimed a close 28-26 victory over the Aggies.
Evenly matched, here are some key comparisons for the National Championship:
- Alabama Offence: 2nd - Scoring 47.7 PPG
- Alabama Defence: 5th - Allowing 16.2 PPG
- Clemson Offence: 4th - Scoring 44.3 PPG
- Clemson Defence: 1st - Allowing 12.9 PPG
- Alabama Pass Offence: 6th - 325.6 YPG scored 39 TD
- Clemson Pass Defence: 16th - 411 YPG allowed 11 TD
- Clemson Pass Offence: 24th - 274.1 YPG scored 34 TD
- Alabama Pass Defence: 22nd - 433 YPG allowed 19 TD
- Alabama Rushing Offence: 34th - 202.0 YPG scored 33 TD
- Clemson Rushing Defence: 2nd - 92.6 YPG allowed 8 TD
- Clemson Rushing Offence: 14th - 256.3 YPG scored 47 TD
- Alabama Rushing Defence: 19th - 120.3 YPG allowed 9 TD
“All-Time vs Clemson, Alabama is 2-2 ATS 3-1 S/U and 2-2 Over/Under”
Our New Year's Six predictions started well and then faded as we lost some razor close contests. Our Florida and Clemson calls cashed easily as the both teams won going away. Following what should have been a game ending play, an Alabama player was flagged for a personal foul and Oklahoma posted a back door cover with a TD one play later. UCF lost by a half point to LSU, Ohio State allowed 20 fourth quarter points and failed to cover by 1.5 points vs Washington and we whiffed on Georgia who mailed in a 28-21 loss vs Texas.
CFP 2019 Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide -4 (-130) over Clemson Tigers.
Double Result First Half and Final Prop: Alabama/Alabama (-110) at Bodog.
Final Scores: Clemson Tigers 44-18 over Alabama Crimson Tide
Prior NCAAF National Championship Odds Refresh: 1:00 AM ET on December 29, 2018.
07/01/19 College Football Playoff Contenders Odds @ Recommended Bookmakers
| CFP Championship |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| #1 Alabama |
-250 to -220 |
-200 to N/C
|
-240 to -210 |
-250 to -220 |
| #2 Clemson |
+225 to +180 |
+280 to +170 |
+275 to +175 |
+300 to +175
|
28/12/18 New Year's Six NCAA Bowl Games Odds and Picks
Anticipating an eight-team playoff, with Power-Five Conference Champions plus three at-large-bids, the current setup is better than its predecessor. From the first match in 1998, to the 2013 National Championship game, the Bowl Championship Series used a combination of humans, computers and polls to decide who played in the NCAAF title match. Although much of that criteria still comes into play, to various degrees, teams also play their way into the National Championship contest with a Semifinal playoff victory.
Taking priority, over weekly AP Top 25 polls, a 13-member CFP Selection Committee ranks the Top 25 NCAAF teams from Week 9 to 14. Following Conference Championships, final rankings are revealed and the top four teams advance to a pair of semifinal showdowns. As a consolation prize, eight squads outside the Final Four are awarded berths in top-level New Year’s Six Bowl games. Highly competitive contests, many memorable players from these battles often hear their name called during a subsequent NFL Draft.
2018-19 College Football Playoffs - NCAAF New Year's Six Bowl Game Schedule
| Date |
Time |
New Year's Six |
Favorite |
Underdog |
Venue |
Location |
| 29/12/18 |
Noon |
Peach Bowl |
#7 Michigan |
#10 Florida |
Mercedes Benz Stadium |
Atlanta, GA |
| 29/12/18 |
4:00 PM |
Cotton Bowl |
#2 Clemson |
#3 Notre Dame |
AT&T Stadium |
Arlington, TX |
| 29/12/18 |
8:00 PM |
Orange Bowl |
#1 Alabama |
#4 Oklahoma |
Hard Rock Stadium |
Miami, FL |
| 01/01/19 |
1:00 PM |
Fiesta Bowl |
#11 LSU |
#8 UCF |
State Farm Stadium |
Glendale, AZ |
| 01/01/19 |
5:00 PM |
Rose Bowl |
#6 Ohio State |
#9 Washington |
Rose Bowl |
Pasadena, CA |
| 01/01/19 |
8:45 PM |
Sugar Bowl |
#5 Georgia |
#15 Texas |
Mercedes-Benz Superdome |
New Orleans, LA |
| 07/01/19 |
8:00 PM |
Championship |
#1 Alabama |
#2 Clemson |
Levi's Stadium |
Santa Clara, CA |
Note: Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl are CFP Semifinal Games - Eastern Standard Time.
Editors Note: Previews were published on 15/12/18 - Odds and picks posted in update.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: #7 Michigan (10–2) vs #11 Florida (9–3)
Michigan stumbled to a 24-17 season opening loss vs Notre Dame and then rode strong defense to ten straight wins before crumbling vs Ohio State in a 62-39 season ending loss. The Wolverines are led by QB Shea Patterson (2364/21/5) RB Karan Higdon (1178/10) and WR Nico Collins (552/6) on offense, plus their defense, which allowed 17.6 PPG. Michigan defeated Florida 33-17 during Week 1 last season and 41-7 in the 2016 Citrus Bowl. Preparing for the 2019 NFL Draft, Michigan stud DT Rashan Gary will not play here.
Rebounding from a 4-7 record in 2017, Florida went 9-3 this year. The Gators signature game was a 27-19 win over #5 LSU in Week 6. QB Feleipe Franks (2284/23/6) RB Lamical Perine (750/6) and WR Van Jefferson (439/6) power the Gators offense, while the defense allowed 20.4 PPG. Florida, who went 8-0 when they rushed for at least 200 yards and 1-3 when they didn’t, will try to run the rock at the tough Michigan defense. UCF upset Auburn in the Peach Bowl last year – the Gators look to do the same as a touchdown dog.
28/12/18 Update: RB Karan Higdon, LB Devin Bush, DE Rashan Gary, ORT Juwann Bushell-Beaty, all key Michigan players, will skip this game to prepare for the 2019 NFL Draft. The Wolverines also have some nagging injuries while Florida is all hands on deck.
Peach Bowl Pick: Florida Gators +6.0 (-110) @ Bodog
Final Score: Florida Gators 41-15 vs Michigan Wolverines = ATS Win
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: #2 Clemson (13–0) vs #3 Notre Dame (12–0)
Under the bright lights at Jerry World in Texas, Notre Dame and Clemson clash in the second CFP Semifinal match. Similar to Alabama, the Tigers trounced their competition by a 45-14 average count during a 13-0 perfect season. Clemson pounded the clawless Pitt Panthers 42-10 to claim their fourth straight ACC Championship. That match was indicative of the Cats season which was very top-heavy on cupcake contests. Loaded with experience, Clemson Seniors have an ACC record 53-4 mark over four seasons.
Notre Dame, one of six FBS Independent schools, earned the CFP #3 ranking after a 12-0 regular season run. The Fighting Irish made a statement right of the gate as they defeated Michigan 24-17 during Week 1 action. Notre Dame is looking for their first National Championship berth since getting bashed 42-14 by Alabama in the 2013 BCS title match. Sort of vanilla during the regular season, the Irish won their games by a 31-16 margin. These teams last met in 2015 when the Tigers posted 24-22 win at home in Clemson.
28/12/18 Update: While losing star DT Dexter Lawrence is troubling for Clemson, Austin Bryant Clelin Ferrell, Xavier Thomas and Christian Wilkins, produced 25 sacks, 28 QB hits and 86 tackles this season. Experience is a big difference and we are taking the Tigers.
Cotton Bowl Pick: Clemson Tigers -11.5 (-120) @ SportsInteraction
Final Score: Clemson Tigers 30-3 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish = ATS Win
Capital One Orange Bowl: #1 Alabama (13–0) vs #4 Oklahoma (12–1)
Meeting in the first of two CFP Semifinal showdowns, rock solid Alabama battles offensive juggernaut Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. Apart from the SEC Championship game vs Georgia, the Crimson Tide rolled to a first half lead in every game of their 13-0 perfect season. Trailing 21-14 at halftime, pivots Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts switched rolls from the 2018 National Championship game as Hurts relieved Tagovailoa and guided the Tide to a 35-28 win. Alabama crushed their opponents by a 48-15 average final score.
High-flying Oklahoma, soars into South Beach after receiving the CFP #4 ranking over Georgia and Ohio State. Avenging their lone loss, 48-45 at home vs Texas in Week 6, the Sooners tamed the Longhorns 39-27 to claim the Big 12 Championship. Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma leans heavily on their offense that averaged 49.5 PPG. The Sooners need to score as much as they can as their defense gives up 32.4 points per game. Huge underdogs, Oklahoma did not face a defense as stout as the Tide.
28/12/18 Update: Looking at this match from every angle - it is difficult to move past the huge advantage Alabama has on defense. The Tide D allowed 14.8 points and 295.4 yards per game while the Oklahoma stop unit allowed 32.4 points and 448.1 YPG. Roll Tide.
Orange Bowl Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-125) @ Bet365
Final Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 45-34 vs Oklahoma Sooners = ATS Loss
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: #8 UCF (12–0) vs #11 LSU (9–3)
Semifinal contests are complete but three New Year's Six Bowl games remain and 2019 betting action begins with LSU battling UCF in the Fiesta Bowl. Taking on the toughest 2018 NCAAF schedule, LSU faced seven AP Top 25 teams including Alabama and Georgia. The Tigers were in the Final Four discussion until they lost 29-0 to the Crimson Tide at home during Week 10 action. During a seven overtime slugfest, LSU lost 74-72 to #22 Texas A&M during their season finale. We wonder how much gas the Tigers have left in the tank.
Riding an amazing 25-game winning streak, University of Central Florida is the best team that does not play in a Power Five Conference. During their run, through less than top-calibre teams in the American Athletic Conference, the Knights have outscored their opponents by a 1157-584 combined count over the past two seasons. After QB McKenzie Milton suffered a brutal leg injury, backup Darriel Mack Jr. lead UCF to a 56-41 win over Memphis in AAC Championship game and will need to be sharp again.
29/12/18 Update: UCF beat #7 Auburn 34-27 in the Peach Bowl last year so they won’t be wowed by the big stage or another SEC opponent. LSU is missing several players, due to injuries and suspensions, plus CB Greedy Williams and NG Ed Alexander are sitting out as they prepare for the 2019 NFL Draft. The Knights will keep it close, and have a legitimate shot at winning outright, against a player-depleted Tigers squad. UCF wants to stay in the National Championship conversation - Take points and bet on the Knights.
Fiesta Bowl Pick: UCF Knights + 7.5 (110) @ Betway
Final Score: LSU Tigers 40-32 over University of Central Florida Knights ATS Loss
Northwestern Mutual Rose Bowl: #6 Ohio State (12–1) vs. #9 Washington (10–3)
Top preseason contenders, ranked #5 and #6 respectively, Ohio State and Washington fell short of their goals but finished strong to earn a Rose Bowl berth. Ohio State had their National Championship hopes dashed after a 49-20 loss to Purdue in Week 8. The Buckeyes ended the regular season with a 62-39 mashing of Michigan and then defeated Northwestern 45-24 in the Big Ten Championship. Close contests against Nebraska (36-31) and Maryland (52-51 OT) contributed to the Buckeyes not receiving a Final Four bid.
Washington had a promising season side-tracked early as the Huskies lost at home to Auburn 21-16 in Week 1. Still in contention, after a five-game winning streak, the season went up in smoke after losses in two of their next three matches. Rebounding from a 12-10 loss to California, the Huskies closed strong as they won their last four contests. That includes a 28-15 win over archrival #8 Washington State and a 10-3 smothering of #17 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship. Washington needs stout defense vs the Buckeyes.
29/12/18 Update: Despite a 12-1 regular season record, plus earning a second straight Big Ten Championship, the CFP Committee denied Ohio State a Final Four berth. A big motivating factor, HC Urban Meyer will lead the Buckeyes onto the field for a final time as he is stepping down after the Rose Bowl. Washington plays solid defense and closed strong, though against Pac-12 talent, but they have not faced an offensive like the one QB Dwayne Haskins powers. We are laying the points and backing the Buckeyes.
Rose Bowl Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 (-110) @ Bet365
Final Score: Ohio State Buckeyes 28-23 over Washington Huskies ATS Loss
Allstate Sugar Bowl: #5 Georgia (11–2) vs. #15 Texas (9–4)
Closing out a fantastic New Year's Six Bowl game betting slate, Georgia and Texas square off in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. After running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Mitchell, plus LB Roquan Smith and T Isaiah Wynn, were taken during the first 35 picks of the 2018 NFL Draft, Georgia reloaded and were in contention all season. The Bulldogs faced a tough schedule as they battled six Top 25 teams and their two losses were to #13 LSU and #1 Alabama. Outscoring their opponents 39-18 Georgia has a balanced attack.
Despite four losses, Texas gets a big game Bowl berth for the first time since the Longhorns lost 37-21 to Alabama in the 2010 BCS National Championship game. Playing six Top 25 teams, the Longhorns earned a trip to the Bayou ahead of Washington State (10-2) Penn State (9-3) and Kentucky (9-3) who all had better records. Texas is stepping up in class here, as they have not faced a squad that's as well rounded as Georgia. Watching the betting lines, bookmakers currently have the Bulldogs as two-touchdown chalk.
29/12/18 Update: It’s fair to wonder what Georgia will have left in the tank following their disappointing 35-28 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Longhorns HC Tom Herman motivates his troops when they are underdogs as he is a ticket cashing 17-2 ATS machine in various coaching positions with Ohio State, Houston and Texas. However, this Longhorns Crew is not on the same level as Georgia who will wear down Texas with a punishing rushing attack. the Dawgs win going away if they bring their “A” game.
Sugar Bowl Pick: Georgia Bulldogs -12.0 (-120) @ Bodog
Final Score: Texas Longhorns 28-21 over Georgia Bulldogs ATS Loss
