USA and Slovakia will clash in the Olympic men’s hockey semifinals on Friday afternoon with a chance to advance to the Gold Medal Game of the tournament on Sunday.
On paper, Team USA lucked out in earning a softer semifinal matchup than Canada, despite being seeded second after the group stage. At the time of writing, the USA is priced at -750 to win this matchup, implying an 88.2% chance of finding its way into the Gold Medal Game versus either Canada or Finland.
Winning this game and guaranteeing at least a silver medal would be a gigantic success for Slovakia. For Team USA, losing this game would be viewed as a historic choke and a major disappointment for the program. Slovakia has admirably played the role of underdogs all tournament long, and it could feel freed by a lack of pressure entering this game given the likely belief that it has already been a successful tournament.
Still, it may prove difficult for a thin Slovakian offence to generate much versus an American side that has defended quite well and features reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck looking sharp in the pipes.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this Olympics men’s hockey semifinal matchup between USA and Slovakia, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Team Slovakia Under 1.5 Total Goals/USA Regulation Win: -105
Nick’s USA/Slovakia parlay
Though GM Bill Guerin’s American side still has a ton of offensive upside, it was clear based on his roster omissions that he envisioned the team being capable of winning low-scoring, tight-checking matchups.
While all accounts would agree that head coach Sam Hallam’s Swedish side was a disappointment in this tournament and that his usage was highly debatable at best, Sweden still had a ton of high-quality offensive threats in the lineup and brought the necessary level of urgency into the semifinals.
While you could argue that the USA’s offensive play was not that impressive in Wednesday’s quarterfinal, they insulated Hellebuyck well versus a team with some legitimate offensive upside. And while Mika Zibanejad was able to knot the game up with a pretty one-timer with the goalie pulled, it still has to be credited that head coach Mike Sullivan’s side checked extremely well after scoring the 1-0 goal.
Throughout this tournament and the 4 Nations Face-Off, Team USA has allowed only 1.5 goals per game over its last eight matchups. One of the games in which it allowed two goals was also a meaningless game versus Sweden in the 4 Nations, when the USA rested skaters with the top seed already in hand.
Juraj Slafkovsky has had a great season at the NHL level with 45 points in 57 games. Led by his excellent shot, Dalibor Dvorsky has solid upside and was a high first-round pick as a result. Both have elevated their respective games in this tournament, combining for 13 points, with Slafkovsky, in particular, going as one of the most impressive skaters at the Olympics.
While they have both been excellent, it’s still a fairly modest top duo relative to the units this American group defended effectively in the 4 Nations, and versus Sweden on Wednesday, while the team’s offensive depth beyond that is a concern.
It feels as though the Americans will author another sharp defensive performance in this matchup, and I see value in backing them to reach the Gold Medal Game with a strong defensive showing.
USA vs. Slovakia Odds
| USA moneyline odds | -750 |
| Slovakia moneyline odds | +525 |
| Puck Line odds | USA -2.5 (-130), Slovakia +2.5 (+110) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-150), Under 5.5 (+125) |
Betting Team USA
While Team USA’s performance in the group stage was arguably not as entirely dominant as expected, especially given the soft group it played in, it seemed to offer a higher level of play at the tail end of its matchup versus Denmark and in its 5-1 win over Germany.
Things got a little dicey on Wednesday, but all things considered, it was a sound and well-structured win from head coach Mike Sullivan’s side. It allowed only three shots on goal from the inner slot, and Hellebuyck looked positionally sound and was sharp when needed.
The concern for the team looking towards a potential Gold Medal Game with Canada could be the lack of highly dynamic offensive play. Dylan Larkin did a good job of getting position out front to tip in his first of the tournament Wednesday, before Quinn Hughes completely took over in three-on-three overtime.
The U.S. did have some good chances aside from the two goals, but it was still a less than outstanding offensive performance. Auston Matthews and both Brady and Matthew Tkachuk were fairly quiet. Controversial selections Vincent Trochek and J.T. Miller have played their roles effectively thus far, but their selections are undoubtedly in line to be criticized if the team happens to fall flat offensively the rest of the way.
Jack Hughes could be a likely candidate to potentially receive greater usage in this matchup. He looked to be arguably the team’s most threatening forward on Wednesday and has had a strong tournament overall. He was elevated onto the third line at the tail end of the game versus Sweden and could be a likely candidate to provide some scoring depth the rest of the way.
Team USA’s tremendous blue line is, on paper, its greatest edge over Canada. Quinn Hughes has put together a salient case that he’s at least in Cale Makar’s tier in this tournament, while Zach Werenski is priced evenly with Makar in the Norris Trophy race and has played well alongside a tremendous partner, Jake Sanderson. And as expected, Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin have been rock-solid in more stay-at-home roles.
It’s an extremely talented and well-balanced defensive core, and a unit that should continue to make generating the types of shots Hellebuyck cannot handle quite difficult. Hellebuyck holds a .958 save percentage in the tournament, and after some less dominant play at the NHL level following his return from injury, he looks to be on top of his game once again.
Betting Slovakia
Slovakia was priced at +1600 to win Group B entering the tournament and +1100 to medal. It claimed the group due to tiebreaker procedures thanks to a power-play goal from Dalibor Dvorsky with 39 seconds left to play in a 5-3 loss to Sweden. That earned the team a favourable quarterfinal opponent in Germany, and it took advantage of it by authoring a convincing 6-2 win and ultimately being the only team to get through the quarterfinals without a scare.
Slovakia has undoubtedly been a lovable underdog story to this point and has been a team that is greater than the sum of its parts. Not to take away from what the group has accomplished, but it does seem that in a lot of aspects things have broken just right for the Slovaks.
The first game of any tournament of this nature is quite volatile. Rosters need to learn to play together as an organized unit in short order, and that does not always happen right out of the gates. Slovakia made fewer key mistakes early on than Finland did in the opening game of the tournament and ultimately held on for the win.
It then bested an Italian side which was drastically below the rest of the field, 3-2, which, coupled with Dalibor Dvorsky’s late goal versus Sweden, provided it a group stage win.
It got the very most out of winning the group, as it played a thin German side that had played it’s four top stars gigantic minutes one day previous in the qualifying round. So while I’m not aiming to belittle what the group has accomplished too significantly, it still seems highly reasonable that it is such a large underdog in this matchup.
In its matchups versus Finland and Sweden, Slovakia trailed 33 to 15 in shots on goal from the inner slot. It ranks just eighth in the tournament in scoring chance generation. The group has defended well and Slafkovsky has been a force, but it’s more than fair to say the overall offensive process has been fairly modest.
Slovakia has three NHL defenders on the roster—Martin Fehervary, Simon Nemec and Erik Cernak—and they have all played quite well. Fehervary, in particular, has been an absolute workhorse. He’s an underrated shutdown defender at the NHL level and has handled a hefty workload effectively in this tournament.
Samuel Hlavaj is expected to get the start in goal, having played to a .932 save percentage and 2.45 GAA in the tournament.
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