Canada and Finland will square off in the Olympic men’s hockey semifinals on Friday morning with a chance to advance to the Gold Medal Game on Sunday.
Both Canada and Finland looked to be on the brink of elimination in Wednesday’s quarterfinal matchups, but ultimately the semifinal matchups shook out as expected following a pair of heart-stopping comeback victories.
Playing as gigantic -1800 favourites, Canada dealt with its first real gut-check Wednesday, as it trailed by a goal with less than four minutes to play before Nick Suzuki came up clutch with a game-tying goal after an impressive forecheck at the tail end of his shift, before Mitch Marner scored a beautiful overtime winner.
Canada may continue to need meaningful contribution from its depth skaters moving forward, as captain Sidney Crosby’s status for this game is in doubt after he suffered a lower-body injured against Czechia.
While Canada showed plenty of resolve in its win over Czechia, Finland’s comeback win over Switzerland on Wednesday was still considerably more improbable. With just 6:06 left to play, Sebastian Aho cut a two-goal deficit in half before Miro Heiskanen tied it after a favourable redirection with 1:12 left to play. That set the stage for Artturi Lehkonen to seal the deal in overtime with a clutch goal and send Finland to the semis.
Wednesday’s pre-game prices suggested Canada had a 94% chance of beating Czechia, which seems a little ridiculous in hindsight. Based on current betting odds, online sportsbooks believe Canada has an 83% chance of winning Friday’s matchup. Though it’s tough to imagine Canada losing this matchup, it may not be the relative cakewalk oddsmakers are expecting.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this Olympic hockey matchup between Canada and Finland, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
Canada vs. Finland Best Bet: Finland +2.5 Goals/Under 7.5 Goals Parlay -105
Nick’s Canada/Finland parlay
Some people are of the belief that you should never bet against your team under any circumstances. Other bettors believe in the idea of an “emotional hedge,” which involves laying a bet that you are content with losing if it means a team that you are heavily invested in wins a given matchup.
My personal objective is to make sure that any bet I’m touting publicly does not fall into either of those categories and to attempt to remove bias and hunt for prices that look to hold value.
I’m a proud Canadian, and my pre-tournament pick was backing Canada to win gold when the price was up at +110 because the price seemed right to do so. In this specific spot, I’m seeing value in targeting a fairly competitive and low-scoring matchup.
As we outlined in Thursday’s guide recommending a bet on Sweden vs USA to come in under a total of six, it’s a relatively proven narrative that in do-or-die matchups hockey tends to feature much lower scorelines. Players generally make fairly conservative decisions, and lazy defensive mistakes become quite rare.
The last 25 NHL Game 7’s have held an average total of 4.68 goals. The eight elimination games of this tournament have averaged 5.3 combined goals, and Canada’s matchup versus Czechia was the only high-scoring affair that featured two more formidable nations, though it still would have come in under the total we are targeting with our parlay.
Finland has honed a reputation for its scrappy, well-structured play in international hockey in which players show a ton of commitment to the team with urgent, detailed play. Aside from an ugly start in its tournament opener versus Slovakia, that is more or less what we have seen from the Finns.
It was ultra-impressive defensively in a 4-1 win versus Sweden, allowing few meaningful chances before score effects truly took hold late in the third. After getting behind the 8-ball early versus Switzerland, still had a fairly impressive game in that regard overall allowing only eight shots from the slot.
Canada is a different animal than Sweden or Switzerland in terms of offensive upside. Still, Finland has enough high-quality NHL talents and has looked organized enough defensively for me to believe it can make this into a little bit more of a chess match than is being anticipated by oddsmakers.
By no means should Sidney Crosby’s loss be crippling for Canada, but it has felt as though, aside from Crosby’s unit and Connor McDavid’s incredible line, Canada has been checked relatively well by the higher-quality nations in the tournament.
Canada’s chances of winning in relative blowout fashion seem to be overvalued, and I also lean towards the game being somewhat tight-checking. At -105, I see value in backing Finland to cover 2.5 goals and for the game to stay under 7.5.
Canada vs. Finland Odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -500 |
| Finland moneyline odds | +375 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -2.5 (+115), Finland +2.5 (-135) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 (-110) |
Betting Team Canada
Canada led for just 5:29 in Wednesday’s incredible matchup versus Czechia and needed some clutch saves from Jordan Binnington in order to eventually win in three-on-three overtime, which is undoubtedly an absurd way to settle such a massive and spectacular game.
Czechia did a good job of counter-punching with chances off of the rush against the run of play, which was logically its best way to have a chance versus a much deeper Canadian roster. While it may not have been the most convincing effort from Canada, it still led 16 to six on shots on goal from the inner slot, and though the margin for error became incredibly thin, it did appear to be a deserving winner, all things considered.
The win potentially came at a cost, as Crosby suffered an injury in the second period and did not return. It’s not yet been confirmed that Crosby will be unavailable for this matchup, but even an optimistic viewpoint might be expecting that if he is able to play, he may not have his usual level of jump.
A potential loss of Crosby will place further onus on skaters such as Suzuki, Marner and a wealth of other Canadian forwards to elevate their respective games relative to what we have seen. It’s obviously possible that McDavid, Macklin Celebrini, and to some extent Nathan MacKinnon, can collectively drag Canada into the final, but it will likely continue to need some production further down the lineup card.
Suzuki’s play has been the target of a lot of criticism in this tournament. Prior to his critical goal, he had been very quiet and not looked to be driving play overly well. However, he had been playing on the wing, and shifting back to his natural position in the middle of the ice seemed favourable, and he will surely remain in that role if Crosby is unavailable.
Marner also was receiving criticism online for his fairly quiet performance versus Czechia but silenced doubters in the end, albeit in three-on-three. Marner’s game tends to look fairly quiet a lot of the time, even as we saw at 4 Nations, in which he high-quality put up primary assists on the game-tying goal and game-winning goal. Much of the perception of his play revolves around whether or not linemates are finishing chances, especially versus high-quality teams. He set Suzuki up for a tremendous chance that is probably supposed to be finished in the third period, but would still have drawn plenty of criticism if he had not gone on to end it himself.
After being the greatest point of contention in terms of roster selections, Canada’s defensive core looked a little shakier versus Czechia than it had throughout the rest of the tournament. The unit was clearly built around limiting mistakes in key areas, and in that regard, it did not fare well enough in Wednesday’s matchup. Canada passed on bringing better puck distributors and play-drivers that theoretically would have worked well with a historically strong offensive core, which prior to Wednesday’s game seemed quite reasonable, but was a decision that seemed debatable once the result was in peril.
It would be logical to assume that puck management and limiting odd-man rushes will be key talking points from head coach Jon Cooper entering this matchup. While Canada did generate a lot of quality looks in Wednesday’s game, Czechia caught it off guard in transition on a number of occasions when plays turned the other way.
Jordan Binnington will start in goal after a Wednesday performance that has more or less become his trademark. At times he looked loud in his net and his rebound control was not amazing, but when the game’s biggest moments came around, he made some fantastic saves in the clutch. Ultimately allowing three goals was reasonable, despite Binnington finishing with a modest .875 save percentage.
Betting Finland
While playing as heavy -320 favourites versus Switzerland, Finland was pushed to the absolute brink and required what was a relatively lucky goal to knot it up. That may be taken as a knock on Finland in some regard, but it also deserves a lot of credit for finding a way after a tough start.
And if anything, Switzerland generally seemed underrated in this tournament and entering that matchup. It gave much more meaningful problems to Canada in the group stage than the 5-1 score suggested, generating 10 shots from the inner slot and a number of chances that were visibly quite threatening.
Allowing two goals versus Switzerland should not suggest to me that head coach Antti Pennanen’s side is not capable of making this game into somewhat of a slog versus a high-powered Canadian side, which will undoubtedly be their ideal game script. There’s a stark drop-off in depth on the Finnish blue line compared to teams like the USA, but it still offers one of the best blue-liners in the game in Miro Heiskanen and two rock-solid pairings.
Finland offers a trio of high-quality, defensively responsible centres in Roope Hintz, Sebastian Aho, and Anton Lundell. Their centre depth would have been incredible if Aleksander Barkov had been able to play, but what’s left is still a highly convincing trio that should be capable of checking a team of Canada’s offensive calibre respectably.
Juuse Saros has bounced back following a shaky performance in the tournament opener with some solid play, though he has struggled at the NHL level over the last two seasons. Switzerland’s first goal on Wednesday came after a misplayed puck by Saros, and was certainly his fault. Still, aside from the gaffe playing the puck behind the net, he was sharp overall, and he did play well in Finland’s critical win over Sweden.
He may not be near the level of a guy like Connor Hellebuyck anymore, but he’s looked effective enough in this tournament overall to expect a solid performance in this spot.
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