The Winnipeg Jets will be desperate to author a better performance Wednesday evening, following a 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres Monday night, which resulted in a players-only meeting. The Montreal Canadiens have been similarly sluggish recently with a record of 3-6-1 over the last 10 games, and we should see a high level of urgency in this all-Canadian NHL matchup.
We are going to take a shot with this NHL three-leg same-game parlay that prices out at +425 at bet365, which will bank on the Jets winning a relatively tight-checking affair.
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline (-120 straight bet odds)
- Under 6.5 Total Goals (-120 straight bet odds)
- Kyle Connor Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Jets vs. Canadiens SGP
Leg 1- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline (-120 straight bet odds)
The Jets have lost five of six games during Connor Hellebuyck’s absence, which is not entirely shocking given that they did appear to be carried heavily by the Hart Trophy-winning netminder early on this season. However, it is important to consider that they have faced a really tough schedule during that span.
Over the last six games, the Jets have faced the Carolina Hurricanes (twice) and three red-hot teams being the Minnesota Wild, the Washington Capitals, and the Buffalo Sabres, who are also playing sneaky good hockey since getting healthy.
You can’t just pin all of the Jets’ struggles on the quality of opposition, and obviously it is a close league where losing five of six is never acceptable. However, the Canadiens have arguably been in even worse form recently, with a 44.48% expected goal share over the last 10 games, and in the same span, the Jets hold a 54.3% expected goal share.
This seems like a good spot to buy low on last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners in a game where they should be well-situated to take advantage of a struggling Canadiens side playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
Leg 2- Under 6.5 Goals (-120 straight bet odds)
Though the Canadiens have played in a lot of high-scoring games recently, this looks to be a solid spot to target a lower-scoring affair given the high game total of 6.5.
The Jets have allowed only 2.90 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which is the fifth-best mark in the NHL. Coming off of an ugly loss in Buffalo, which resulted in a players-only meeting, this seems like a good spot to buy into the defensive upside of head coach Scott Arniel’s side.
Though Hellebuyck’s brilliance has made them look like more of a defensive juggernaut than they are over the last two seasons, the Jets have still proven to be a capable defensive side, and they should play to that identity on the road in this matchup, and the Canadiens have not been generating many offensive chances over the last 10 games with a 3.05 xGF/60 rating.
While I like the Jets’ chances of winning this game and holding the Canadiens to a modest offensive output, I’m still not sold they will generate enough offence to push this game past it’s high total of 6.5. A key reason for the Canadiens’ ugly goals against totals recently has been the horrid play of Samuel Montembeault in goal, but Jakub Dobes has been much more effective, and he will be the Canadiens’ starter in this matchup.
The loss of Nikolaj Ehlers has made the Jets a fairly one-dimensional team offensively. They have some competent offensive skaters further down the lineup, but their top line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Gabriel Vilardi is still their only unit that looks overly formidable from a production perspective.
Leg 3- Kyle Connor Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155 straight bet odds)
Connor’s shot volume has been down recently, as the Jets sniper has recorded only 11 shots on target over the last six games and gone over 2.5 shots on goal just once. However, as you would expect, he went over in the lone matchup versus a weaker defensive team (Nashville) and was stymied in the other five matchups versus teams that have been allowing very few chances against.
Over the last several seasons, Connor’s shot prop has generally been set at 3.5, and he’s obviously proven himself as a high-volume shooter. Given that he remains in the exact same roles that we have typically seen on the top line alongside Scheifele and Vilardi and top power-play unit, I’d expect Connor’s recent dip in terms of shot volume to merely be a blip on the radar.
The Canadiens have allowed 29.22 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games, which is the seventh-worst mark in the NHL. The Jets should be able to control play effectively in this matchup, and I like the chances that Connor’s shot volume is more on par with what we have typically seen in this matchup.
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