We are just over a quarter of the way into the 2025-26 NHL regular season and approaching the popular U.S. Thanksgiving benchmark, which means now is a fitting time to take a dive into a couple of the more intriguing NHL individual awards markets.
Vezina Trophy Odds
A year ago, the battle for the Vezina trophy was one of the NHL’s least exciting races, as Connor Hellebuyck pulled away from the pack early on in a year when he ultimately became the first goaltender to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price in 2015.
Prior to the news that Hellebuyck would miss between four-to-six weeks after undergoing minor knee surgery, he was heavily favoured to win the award for a second consecutive season. If Hellebuyck misses five weeks, that would mean 17 missed games. Even for a goaltender as dominant as Hellebuyck, oddsmakers are low on his chances of taking it home as a result, as Hellebuyck is currently the seventh favourite in this market at +2500.
At +2500, Hellebuyck would still be one of my higher-ranked bets on the board in this market. It is realistic to think the Jets may struggle without Hellebuyck given their shaky even-strength play this season, which would help Hellebuyck’s case for two reasons. It will both illuminate his importance to the team and would potentially force the Jets to ride Hellebuyck heavily down the stretch, even if they aren’t exactly hoping to do so in order to still qualify for the postseason out of a highly competitive Central Division. He holds a +12.5 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage currently, and this market could easily come down to how many starts Hellebuyck ultimately makes.
Logan Thompson is currently the betting favourite at +300, and is a clear pass for me at that number. Thompson was great last season and has had an excellent start to the year, but there are numerous compelling options further down the board, and Charlie Lindgren’s presence as a strong second option could still prove to be significant.
Igor Shesterkin at +1000 would be my preferred bet out of the goaltenders priced shorter than +1000, as he is the most proven goaltender at the top of the board, and is playing on a Rangers side that has defended well but has very little offensive upside. However, the potential that the Rangers simply will not win enough games for his play to garner all that much credit is a concern.
The last guy I want to touch on before getting into my best bet is Scott Wedgewood at +2500, because he currently holds incredible surface-level stats playing behind a Colorado Avalanche side that has been by a wide margin the best defensive team in the NHL. Wedgewood has already played 17 games because Mackenzie Blackwood was injured at the start of the year, but part of the reason for his long price is the fact that the Avalanche will likely use Wedgewood and Blackwood fairly evenly down the stretch, particularly if they run away from the pack in Western Conference standings.
Historically, voters have not given much weight to the environment in which goaltenders have played in, and generally goaltenders with the best surface-level stats have garnered the majority of nominations for this award, while goaltenders who offered great underlying results while playing on a horrible team have had no chance.
It’s a bit of a chicken-and-the-egg argument because if you have a goaltender that performed at an elite level, it typically means team success. Perhaps goaltenders carrying bad teams will start to get more credit, though, as more broadcasting networks, such as Sportsnet in Canada, are more consistently displaying underlying data and have partnerships with companies such as Sportlogiq.
The potential that goaltenders are likely to start getting more credit for Goals Saved Above Expected and Expected Save Percentage metrics works in favour of our best bet, which comes in on Spencer Knight of the Chicago Blackhawks.
Spencer Knight to Win Vezina Trophy
Spencer Knight to win Vezina Trophy
If the season ended today, Knight would be the deserving winner of the Vezina Trophy, which is the greatest reason +1000 looks too long to pass up. Knight ranks first in the NHL with a +15.5 GSAx rating and ranks second in the NHL with a save percentage of .924 playing on a Blackhawks side that was favoured to finish dead last in the NHL entering the year.
The Blackhawks have allowed 3.62 xGA/60 this season, which is the sixth-worst mark in the NHL. For Knight to win this award, he will likely need voters to credit how shaky the Blackhawks still are defensively, and from what I can gather, many mainstream media outlets are aware that Knight is the main reason the team appears to be turning the corner.
At the time of writing, the Blackhawks appear to be entering a solid window to buy on Knight in this market. They are entering a reasonably soft spot in the schedule for Knight to perform, with plenty of games versus teams that have not shown much offensive upside this season.
Another reason to believe in Knight is that he was once viewed as the top goaltending prospect in hockey and actually was quite effective last season. Knight played to a +6.9 GSAx rating across 38 appearances in 2024-25. He is obviously having a career year and could come down to earth to some extent, but there were some signs that his ceiling was still very high entering this season.
Jack Adams Award Odds
Joel Quenneville (+300) is currently the favourite to win the Jack Adams, which is good news for any readers who tailed me on our preseason Jack Adams pick on Quenneville at +850. However, Quenneville no longer looks to hold any value at the current price.
Jared Bednar’s Colorado Avalanche have been downright incredible in all facets of the game and could run away with the Presidents’ Trophy which would make him a heavy favourite. The San Jose Sharks, Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, and Seattle Kraken are also greatly outperforming expectations just like Quenneville’s Anaheim Ducks, and if one of those sides is able to sneak into the playoffs, it would likely block Quenneville from winning, as those teams would all be rightfully viewed as even greater overachievers.
Oddsmakers appear right in moving Bednar down to +350, and he would be my favorite bet currently out of the coaches with shorter odds. Martin St. Louis (+1100) is in the conversation, but I’m not overly worried about him given that the Montreal Canadiens have looked shaky of late, and after making the playoffs last season, they would likely need to do more than simply make the playoffs for St. Louis to win the award.
Dan Muse to Win the Jack Adams
Dan Muse to Win Jack Adams
As there are plenty of teams within striking distance of pulling off a shocking playoff berth, there are a lot of coaches in the mix for this award currently. Therefore an important question to ask when evaluating the prices on this market, is which of the overachievers appear most likely to continue their current level of play and ultimately steal a playoff berth?
With that debate in mind, Muse looks to be an appealing candidate at +1200. The Penguins are down to +300 to make the playoffs, and that number appears to be fair, and Muse should have a great chance of winning this award if the Penguins are to sneak into the playoffs.
Pittsburgh entered the year as the third favourite to finish dead last in the standings, and from that perspective, Muse is off to an excellent start in the battle for this award. What’s appealing about Muse, in particular, is the Penguins’ underlying results suggest they might be somewhat legitimate.
The Penguins currently rank 10th in expected goal share, and hold a +6 goal differential. Those numbers suggest they haven’t simply been lucky to hold a .595 points percentage, which ranks 12th in the NHL at the time of writing.
This is an appealing window to buy on Muse in this market, as the Penguins will host the Buffalo Sabres Wednesday evening before facing off against a depleted Columbus Blue Jackets side Friday and the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday.
What’s particularly appealing to me about Muse’s current case is that he seems to be rightfully getting credit for the surprisingly strong starts from skaters such as Erik Karlsson and Anthony Mantha from the mainstream media, while Penguins skaters such as Karlsson and Ryan Graves have both gone out of their way in recent interviews to note that Muse’s addition has helped them find their games relative to last season.
MoneyPuck.com is entirely data driven, and currently projects the Penguins to make the playoffs 54.9% of the time based on their strong underlying results. I’m certainly not in agreement that Pittsburgh’s chances are that high, but even if we are willing to give Muse’s Penguins a 30% chance of getting in the playoffs, he looks like an appealing add at the time of writing.