The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will renew their historic NHL rivalry Wednesday evening in the season opener for both teams.
Toronto lost last season’s opening night matchup, 1-0, as Montreal’s Sam Montembeault stole the show with 48 saves. The Leafs then won the following three matchups in last year’s season series by a combined margin of 12 to four.
Based on the betting prices for Wednesday’s matchup, oddsmakers believe that the gap between these two bitter rivals has narrowed entering this season. The Leafs closed at -190 in last season’s opening night matchup in Montreal and are currently priced at -165 to win this year’s matchup on home ice.
My best bet for Wednesday’s clash between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs is to play a regulation tie at +320 odds at bet365 (play to +305).
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs regulation tie
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs best bet
The Canadiens squeaked out a 1-0 win in last year’s season-opening affair between these two rivals, and it would make sense to see Wednesday’s matchup once again feature a tight-knit scoreline with neither side generating much separation on the scoreboard.
Montreal should be somewhat improved defensively this season and will likely receive excellent play in goal once again from Montembeault, and it will likely employ a simple game plan on the road here, looking to limit mistakes and hang around with a quality Leafs side.
At +320, I see value in betting this game to require overtime and would bet it down to +305.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +140 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -165 |
| Puck Line odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+155), Canadiens +1.5 (-185) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 goals (-110) |
2024-25 Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs stats comparison
| 2024-25 Regular Season Stats | Canadiens | Maple Leafs |
| Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5) | 2.39 (17th) | 2.66 (8th) |
| Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.76 (26th) | 2.01 (3rd) |
| Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.60 (19th) | 2.66 (8th) |
| Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.89 (30th) | 2.57 (16th) |
| High-Danger Scoring Chances % (5-on-5) | 47.03 (29th) | 50.65% (15th) |
| Goal Differential | -20 (23rd) | +37 (8th) |
| Power Play % | 20.1% (21st) | 24.8% (9th) |
| Penalty Kill % | 80.9% (9th) | 77.9% (17th) |
| Save Percentage (Sam Montembeault vs. Anthony Stolarz) | .901 | .926 |
| Goals Saved Above Expectation (Montembeault vs. Stolarz) | +24.6 | +25.8 |
Betting the Canadiens
The Canadiens snuck into the postseason with a total of 91 points last season and, on paper, are entering this season with a deeper and more well-rounded roster. Still, oddsmakers and modelers alike aren’t overly confident that the Canadiens will actually progress this season, as they hold a regular season betting total of 90.5 points and are priced at -105 to make the playoffs.
The Canadiens finished with a -20 goal differential and ranked sixth-last in expected goal share last season at even strength. Those statistics suggest that they weren’t truly as good as their record suggested, which is part of the reason many models aren’t calling for an uptick.
While the underlying statistics suggest that Montreal overachieved in finishing with a record of 40-31-11 last season, there are some strong arguments that suggest it may be able to control play at a higher rate this season.
Zachary Bolduc could provide a significant boost to what was a relatively weak middle six this season. Bolduc finished with a +11.4 expected goals above replacement last season for the St. Louis Blues and was highly effective at driving the play in the right direction.
Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki carried the bulk of the load offensively for the Canadiens last season, but Ivan Demidov will likely prove to be another high-end offensive talent and is priced as the outright favourite to win the Calder Memorial Trophy.
On paper, Montreal’s blue line is considerably better than last season. While Noah Dobson’s game isn’t without flaws, he still provides a meaningful upgrade to the team’s top four. Kaiden Guhle could offer better results based on his expected career arc, and having Alexandre Carrier on board for the whole season also shouldn’t hurt.
If the Canadiens are to remain comparably bad defensively this season, questions may start to be asked about whether or not Martin St. Louis truly understands how to instill strong defensive structure as an NHL head coach. He’s gotten a pass over the last two years because the Canadiens were not expected to contend based on their roster, but the club’s aspirations have risen entering this season.
Montembeault was one of the NHL’s best netminders last season, which helped mask the team’s shaky defensive play. He held a +24.6 GSAx rating last season, after finishing with a +3.3 GSAx rating in 2023-24.
Demidov (wrist) and Bolduc (lower body) are both listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup, while David Reinbacher will be sidelined with a hand injury. Demidov and Bolduc both seem probable to play in this matchup, but bettors may be wise to keep an eye on Montreal’s morning skate Wednesday.
Betting the Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs did appear to take on somewhat of a new identity last season under head coach Craig Berube prior to falling in Game 7 versus the Florida Panthers in Round 2 of the playoffs. With Mitch Marner’s departure to the Vegas Golden Knights, the “core four” has finally been broken apart, and for the first time in several years, the roster core has undergone a meaningful shakeup.
Public NHL models were not in agreement with the idea that the Leafs were actually a better defensive team under Berube last season than in previous years under Sheldon Keefe, as they allowed 3.28 xGA/60 (23rd in NHL). Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combined to save 42.4 goals above expected, which statistically appears to be the greatest reason for the team’s perceived defensive turnaround, though there is an argument to be made that the team did a better job of clearing out the front of the net defensively based on the eye test.
While it will be hard to replace Marner’s regular season dominance, the Leafs will hope that a more balanced offensive lineup, combined with a healthy Auston Matthews, can help them take steps forward come the postseason.
GM Brad Treliving brought in left-winger Matias Maccelli from Utah, after the talented 24-year-old had a severe letdown last season in generating just 18 points in 55 games played. Maccelli is a strong playmaker when true to form and has earned the right to start on Matthews’ wing in Wednesday’s matchup.
The Leafs are also betting on a return to form from power forward Dakota Joshua, who tallied 18 goals in 63 games in the 2023-24 season before offering a drop off in production last year, albeit well excused by a scary battle with cancer.
Nic Roy has proven himself as a quality depth centre who plays a team-first game and will hope to power the team’s fourth line to better results after it was a massive weakness in the 2025 postseason.
The Leafs’ bottom six will be without Scott Laughton in this matchup, who is week-to-week with a lower-body injury.
Strong continuity among the defensive core could prove to be an asset for Berube’s side in the early part of this season, as all six defenders expected to play in Wednesday’s game were with the team last season, and all three units spent considerable time playing together.
Stolarz will get the start in goal in this matchup, following a spectacular debut campaign with the Leafs last season in which he finished with a .926 save percentage and +25.8 GSAx rating.