In what will be the final UFC pay-per-view ever, UFC 323 is set to be a thrilling night of mixed martial arts as we have not one, but two undisputed world titles on the line, as well as several other highly anticipated scraps on the main card. The only way the action could get any better is by getting some skin in on the fights this weekend with our expert UFC 232 picks, predictions, and best odds
Check out where you can score the best odds on each bout below, as well as an accompanying method of victory pick for each fight so you can knock out the online sportsbooks with these winning picks at UFC 323.
- Blachowicz by DEC (+229)
- Cejudo by DEC (+370)
- Moreno by DEC (+175)
- Van by KO/TKO/DQ (+450)
- Dvalishvili by DEC (-244)
Merab Dvalishvili to Win by DEC
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
Best Odds on Blachowicz to Win: -135 (Sports Interaction)
Best Odds on Guskov to Win: +120 (BetVictor)
Kicking off the night’s festivities with a battle between two ranked light heavyweights, former division champion Jan Blachowicz will take on surging newcomer, Bogdan “Czarevitch” Guskov. While Guskov has quickly built a reputation for himself as a deadly knockout artist at 205 lbs, look for him to be outclassed on this main card opener as Blachowicz takes the victory by decision.
A veteran of the UFC, Blachowicz has been around the block a time or two with the best of the best at 205 lbs. Entering into his 21st UFC bout, there’s nothing that Guskov can throw at Blachowicz that he won’t be ready for. Having shared the Octagon with dangerous strikers such as Alex Pereira, Israel Adesanya, and Magomed Ankalaev, none of them was able to put Blachowicz down.
While Guskov enters this fight riding a four-fight winning streak, with all four wins coming by finish, these victories have come against subpar competitors. His only fight against another member of the current top 15 in the UFC light heavyweight division came in his debut against Volkan Oezdemir, who made short work of the Uzbekistan product, finishing him by submission in the first round.
Getting his first crack at the division’s elite, look for Guskov to fail this test as the skill, presence, and experience possessed by Blachowicz is enough to avoid engaging in dangerous striking situations, instead grinding out the win with stellar grappling and landing safe shots from range in order to inflict punishment.
Even at 41, Legendary Polish Power doesn’t fade. Bank on Blachowicz to get back into the win column at the expense of Guskov as he cruises to a win on the judges’ scorecard.
Prediction: Blachowicz to Win by DEC (+229 @ TonyBet)
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Best Odds on Cejudo to Win: +240 (Sports Interaction)
Best Odds on Talbott to Win: -275 (bet365)
Pitting a legend of the sport against a rising star, you won’t want to miss the upcoming clash between Henry “Triple C” Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott. While Talbott enters this fight sporting a six-inch height advantage, as well as 2.5 inches in reach, watch as Cejudo reminds the world, we’re all the same height off our backs as he scores an impressive win by decision.
Set to utilize his Olympic wrestling skillset, Cejudo is primed to control the tempo of this bout from start to finish. Talbott’s main pathway to victory comes from his devastating knockout power, something he won’t be able to draw from on the ground. In his first career defeat suffered by Raoni Barcelos, a glaring hole was put on display as Talbott was rendered defenceless once he was taken down.
If he wasn’t able to grapple with Barcelos, there’s no chance that he’ll be able to match the grappling acumen of the former two-division champion in Cejudo. Look for Cejudo to quickly shoot for a takedown in this one, avoiding any dangerous striking exchanges, and happily riding out the 15-minute bout as he takes the win by decision over Talbott.
Prediction: Cejudo to Win by DEC (+370 @ TonyBet)
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Best Odds on Moreno to Win: +110 (BetVictor)
Best Odds on Taira to Win: -120 (Sports Interaction)
In a potential number-one contenders scrap in the flyweight division, former champ Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno will look to get one step closer to regaining his gold as he takes on Japanese phenom, Tatsuro Taira.
In what’s sure to be an evenly fought contest between two well-rounded fighters, look for the experience and power of Moreno to shine in this matchup as he extends his win streak to three in a row as he scores the decision win over Taira.
Having recently suffered his first career defeat at the hands of Brandon Royval by split decision, that bout provided a solid blueprint on how to defeat Taira. If Moreno is able to use his solid grappling skillset to negate the takedown threats from Taira, all he needs to do is make the fight a standup brawl, an area Moreno and his Mexican fighting spirit have built a Hall of Fame career off of.
Back Moreno to secure the win by decision as he and Taira go to war over the course of three rounds, with Moreno having his hand raised once the dust settles.
Prediction: Moreno to Win by DEC (+175 @ TonyBet)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Best Odds on Pantoja to Win: -235 (Sports Interaction)
Best Odds on Van to Win: +200 (bet365)
In the first of two world title fights scheduled at UFC 323, Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja will defend his flyweight title against Joshua “The Fearless” Van in the co-main event. While Pantoja has quickly carved himself out a place as one of the best at 125 lbs in UFC history, look for his legendary run to come to an end as he is bested by the young killer, Van.
Over the course of his phenomenal four-fight title run, Pantoja has found the bulk of his success coming from his blend of superb grappling and otherworldly toughness. With relentless grappling and the heart to absorb damage, Pantoja has managed to narrowly squeak out wins against world-class opponents, but has come close to losing his title on several occasions due to this high-risk fighting style.
While his ability to outwork his opponents has been admirable to watch, this game plan may come back to bite him against Van.
A young star in the making, Van has shown some of the cleanest boxing skills in the UFC, able to pick apart opponents with precision as he slowly breaks them down over the course of the fight. Not a one-trick pony, Van has also shown tremendous takedown defence, allowing him to keep the fight on the feet and operate inside his wheelhouse.
Scheduled for the first five-round fight of his career, look for this structure to actually play into Van’s favour as he gets better the longer the fight goes on. In contrast, Pantoja distinctly gets worse over the course of the fight as he begins to gas out due to the amount of damage he’s willing to absorb in order to get the fight to the mat.
Watch as Van survives the early onslaught sent his way by Pantoja, landing solid shots throughout the first three rounds, before teeing off on the reigning champ for the remainder of the Championship rounds, taking the win by a late knockout as a result.
Set to become the first fighter born in the 2000s to win UFC gold, bank on Van to become the youngest UFC Champion at 24 years old and three months, trailing only Jose Aldo and Jon Jones for this distinction. Not bad company to be around.
Prediction: Van to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+450 @ BetVictor)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Best Odds on Dvalishvili to Win: -450 (bet365)
Best Odds on Yan to Win: +350 (Sports Interaction)
Set to cap off a wild night of fights, we’ve got a fantastic showdown between two of the best bantamweights of the past decade as Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili looks to defend his title for a record-breaking fourth time in a single calendar year as he takes on Petr “No Mercy” Yan.
In a rematch from their 2023 Fight Night main event, look for this bout to unfold in the same fashion as the nonstop pressure and grappling of Dvalishvili is too much for the dangerous striker Yan to handle, earning an easy decision victory as a result.
Having built his already Hall-of-Fame-worthy legacy on his elite wrestling skillset, Dvalishvili only appears to be getting better. In his most recent title defence against Cory Sandhagen, not only did he look fantastic on the ground, but he also outstruck him, something nobody expected.
While Yan has continued to be a world-class fighter at 135 lbs, with recent victories over Marcus McGhee and Deiveson Figueiredo, there is still a massive discrepancy in the wrestling ability between him and Merab.
Look for Dvalishvili to bring this fight to the canvas repeatedly, holding down Yan while inflicting constant ground-and-pound offence throughout their five-round affair, en route to breaking the UFC record for most title defences in a year as the Machine exemplifies his moniker to wrap up UFC 323.
Prediction: Dvalishvili to Win by DEC (-244 @ TonyBet)
UFC 323 Prelim Picks
- Santos by DEC
- Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO/DQ
- Aslan by KO/TKO/DQ
- Turner by KO/TKO/DQ
- Ferreira by KO/TKO/DQ
- Sadykhov by SUB
- Barber by DEC
- Duncan by SUB
- Torres by KO/TKO/DQ