Going down live from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UFC 321 is set to be an event for the history books as we are treated to not one, but two world title fights as Tom Aspinall defends the undisputed Heavyweight Championship against former interim champion, Ciryl Gane, in the main event of the evening. With so many thrilling scraps set to go down this Saturday, the only way these fights could get any more intense is by placing a bet on the action with my UFC 321 picks & predictions.
Along with all of my expert picks, you can find in-depth betting analysis for each main card fight, as well as where you can score the best UFC odds on the market for each bet.
My best bets and UFC 321 picks are featured below, alongside my expert analysis for each bout scheduled on the main card.
- Rakic by KO (+420)
- Volkov by KO (+325)
- Nurmagomedov by DEC (-162)
- Jandiroba by DEC (+333)
- Aspinall by SUB (+225)
Tom Aspinall to Win by SUB
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Best Odds on Rakic to Win: +100 (BetVictor)
Best Odds on Murzakanov to Win: -110 (bet365)
Kicking off the main card with a bout between two top-ranked light heavyweights, Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic will go toe-to-toe with the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov.
While Rakic is in the midst of a three-fight losing skid and set to face a 15-0 opponent, look for the tides to change in this fight as Rakic scores an emphatic knockout win over Murzakanov, putting an end to his losing streak, and handing the Russian fighter his first taste of defeat.
In a matchup that’s likely to stay standing for the majority of the bout, this matchup will be decided by who can land first. In this clash, this edge is undoubtedly in favour of Rakic. Sporting a sizeable five-inch height and six-inch reach advantage, the size difference between these two fighters is a glaring discrepancy. With his impressive stature compared to that of his opponent, Rakic will have no trouble landing damaging shots throughout the fight, while staying out of harms way of the heavy hands of Murzakanov.
It has been six years since we last saw Rakic notch a knockout win in the UFC, but with an advantageous matchup in front of him, look for the Serbian mixed martial artist to bite down on his mouthguard and throw caution to the wind as he re-establishes himself as a top contender at 205 lbs.
Prediction: Rakic by KO/TKO/DQ (+420 @ TonyBet)
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Best Odds on Volkov to Win: +170 (BetVictor)
Best Odds on Almeida to Win: -188 (bet365)
In what is set to be a number-one contenders fight for the UFC Heavyweight strap, the stakes have never been higher for Alexander “Drago” Volkov and Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida.
In a contrasting clash of styles with the striking ability of Volkov against the superb submission game of Almeida, look for Volkov to score the early knockout finish over the Brazilian at UFC 321.
Let’s not forget, it really should be Volkov challenging Tom Aspinall in the main event of this event after being robbed of a decision victory against Ciryl Gane in his last trip to the Octagon. In his last few fights, the towering Russian Volkov has shown significant improvements in his skill set, making him more dangerous than ever. Possessing ample experience against UFC legends, impressive finishes, and a reignited fire to be a champion, Almeida is set for a rough night at the office this Saturday.
While you’d be a fool to ignore the amazing technical grappling ability of Almeida, opportunities to bring the fight to the ground will be slim pickings. Holding a four-inch height advantage, Volkov will have no trouble keeping his distance from the shorter Almeida, keeping the fight on the feet and in his wheelhouse.
Almeida has shown massive holes in his game when it comes to his striking ability, most notably in his knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes back at UFC 299. Facing one of the hardest hitters in the UFC, look for Volkov to hunt for the finish with his dangerous elbows and head kicks, connecting early and sending Almeida to the shadow realm within the first two rounds of this fight.
Prediction: Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ (+325 @ Sports Interaction)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Best Odds on Nurmagomedov to Win: -600 (Tooniebet)
Best Odds on Bautista to Win: +475 (Sports Interaction)
In another matchup that may serve as a number-one contenders fight, this time in the UFC Bantamweight division, Umar Nurmagomedov will look to vault his way back into title contention against the red-hot Mario Bautista.
After a competitive clash with current division champion Merab Dvalishvili his last time out, Nurmagomedov has proven that even in a loss, he is among the elite at 135 lbs. While Bautista has looked impressive throughout his current eight-fight win streak which features victories over top-tier fighters such as Jose Aldo and Patchy Mix, he still isn’t in Nurmagomedov’s league.
Possessing sensational wrestling skills akin to his cousin and coach, Khabib, Nurmagomedov is a demon when it comes to getting top control and dominating his opponents. Additionally, Nurmagomedov has shown crisp striking skills, allowing him to hold his own on the feet before taking the fight to his comfort zone on the canvas.
Bautista is a legitimate talent and deserves to be recognized for his fantastic ability inside the Octagon. Unfortunately, in this matchup, he will be facing an opponent who is better than him across the board. Expect a competitive bout that goes the distance, with Nurmagomedov getting his hand raised to cap off this upcoming UFC 321 fight.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by DEC (-162 @ TonyBet)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Best Odds on Jandiroba to Win: +135 (Sports Interaction)
Best Odds on Dern to Win: -150 (Toonibet)
The first of two title fights scheduled at UFC 321, the co-main event of the evening will be for the vacant women’s Strawweight Championship as Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba takes on Mackenzie Dern.
While Dern has amassed a solid following and has become an incredibly popular figure in the combat sports world, it’s Jandiroba who is the better fighter. In a battle pitting two elite grapplers against each other, Jandiroba is set to control the pace of the bout, resulting in a dominant decision victory.
On the feet, neither fighter is up to snuff. With little to no knockout power as well as a lack of technical skill, this fight will be decided by whoever can get the edge in the grappling department. Neither fighter has ever been submitted in their UFC careers, making for a tactical chess match on the ground throughout the five-round contest.
In the end, it will be Jandiroba’s diverse skill set that sets her apart from her opponent, as her sensational BJJ and Judo skills allow for greater versatility and effective grappling in MMA, while Dern is more reliant on her ability to make moves off her back.
Bank on Jandiroba to squeak out the win by decision in what’s set to be a grapplers’ delight in the co-main event of UFC 321.
Prediction: Jandiroba to Win by DEC (+333 @ BetVictor)
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
Best Odds on Aspinall to Win: -400 (bet365)
Best Odds on Gane to Win: +310 (Sports Interaction)
Capping off the night (or morning/afternoon for those of us watching in North America), we will finally see the return of the heavyweight king inside the octagon as Tom Aspinall defends the UFC Heavyweight Championship against Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane.
While Gane has been among the division’s best since entering the UFC back in 2019, he is in a complete mismatch against Aspinall. A historically good finisher, Aspinall is not one to waste any time or movements inside the cage. With only one of his UFC bouts having gone past the first round, this fight being scheduled for five rounds may be a tad unnecessary.
It’s no secret that Gane is as talented a striker in the heavyweight division as we’ve ever seen, but even with his strong technical skills, he lacks the finishing power to be truly elite. On the other hand, Aspinall has three straight fights by first-round knockout, all of which came in less than two minutes of fight time.
With his ability to shut his opponents’ lights out in a hurry, you’d expect to see this trend continue in the main event, but the best play of the night actually comes in the grappling aspect. Posessing virtually zero grappling skills, both of Gane’s losses in the UFC stem from his poor wrestling, evident in his decision loss to Francis Ngannou and the effortless submission loss suffered against Jon Jones.
Aspinall may not use it often, but his wrestling ability is fantastic. Sporting a 100% takedown success rate in the UFC, when the Englishman wants to take the fight to the ground, he does so with ease. If you’re looking for a blueprint/vision into the future of what this fight may look like, go back and re-watch the matchup of Aspinall vs. Volkov from 2022, in which Aspinall negates any striking advantage of his opponent, rushing in, and finishing the fight in the first round by submission.
Primed to become one of the all-time greats at heavyweight, bank on Aspinall to make another statement in his return to action, submitting Gane in the main event, and notching a sizeable payout to bettors to cap off their UFC 321 bets.
Prediction: Aspinall to Win by SUB (+300 @ Sports Interaction)
UFC 321 Prelim Picks
- Amorim by DEC (+200)
- Maksum by DEC (+100)
- Barnett by KO (+550)
- Delgado by KO (+333)
- Walker by SUB (+110)
- Al-Sewady by DEC (+225)
- Klein by DEC (+200)
- Aliskerov by KO (+240)
- Haqparast by DEC (+200)