Canada Sports Betting helps get you ready to handicap this weekend’s English Premier League soccer games with some betting tidbits and best bets for some of the marquee matchups.
Burnley vs Chelsea
Saturday, Nov. 22
Chelsea hasn’t had it all its own way this season, but it started to build momentum before the international break. Enzo Maresca’s side now sits 3rd in the Premier League and has the necessary quality to beat Burnley.
The Clarets produced a lacklustre performance at West Ham before the international break, losing 3-2. In that match, the home side netted three goals and produced an xG (expected goals) of 3.06, which is a worry for Scott Parker as his team prepares to face a capable Chelsea team. Burnley has also struggled going forward. It has the lowest xG in the division, with 8.3, indicating the team has been fortunate to score 14.
Burnley was beaten 2-0 by Arsenal in its last home game and failed to register a single shot on target. Chelsea isn’t quite as defensively sound as the Gunners, but it still has the quality and structure to starve the home side of chances.
The Blues have now won four of their last five league matches, keeping clean sheets in three of those games. During that run, Chelsea has scored an average of two goals per game and conceded just two. Under 4.5 goals won in all four of those matches, so adding that to an away win gives us appealing odds.
Goals have also been scarce in Burnley’s games at Turf Moor. The team’s five home league games have seen an average of just 1.8 goals. A lack of firepower is set to be a big issue against Chelsea.
Prediction: Chelsea to win & Under 4.5 match goals: -125
Bournemouth vs West Ham
Saturday, Nov. 22
Bournemouth suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat against Aston Villa before the international break. While we can expect a response from the Cherries, there is still likely to be defensive concerns when they face West Ham.
Andoni Iraola’s side’s matches rank amongst the most goal-friendly in the Premier League,with an average of 3.18 per game. Bournemouth has been clinical in front of goal, netting 18 from an xG of 15.07, so it should have what it takes to find the net at home on matchday 12.
West Ham appointed Nuno Espirito Santo to steer the club from relegation, and there has been signs of a revival in recent matches. The Hammers earned a 3-1 win over Newcastle, before beating Burnley 3-2. The direct attacking approach certainly paid dividends in those matches, as Nuno’s team racked up a total of 15 attempts in each.
The visitors are the clear underdog on the 1×2 market. However, recent victories will have West Ham believing it can come away with all three points, and it will certainly be confident of getting on the scoresheet.
The recent meetings between these teams also point to goals, so we are backing both teams to score in this one, a bet that has won in the last four league head-to-heads between these two teams.
Prediction: Both teams to score: -142
Brighton vs Brentford
Saturday, Nov. 22
Brentford has picked up 81.25% of its league points up from home matches so far this season. Keith Andrews’ side has struggled on the road, and it faces a difficult trip to the Amex Arena here. That’s why we are backing Brighton on the 1×2 market as part of our Premier League predictions.
Brighton has lost just one of its last 13 home league games. During that impressive run, the Seagulls have scored an average of two goals per game and conceded just 1.31. This season, Fabian Hurzeler’s side is unbeaten in front of its own fans, and comes into the Brentford clash on the back of two consecutive wins at the Amex.
Brentford managed an impressive 3-1 home win over Newcastle prior to the international break, but that’s a stark contrast to the Bees’ away form. Andrews’ team has lost four of its five away league matches. A 2-0 win over a struggling West Ham side was the only exception.
Since both of these teams have been in the Premier League, Brighton is unbeaten when hosting Brentford, winning two and drawing two. The Seagulls are unlikely to record a comfortable win here, but the visitors struggles on the road make this a value pick.
Prediction: Brighton to win: -111
Brighton to win outright
Fulham vs Sunderland
Saturday, Nov. 22
Marco Silva has enjoyed plenty of success as Fulham boss, but pressure is mounting on him as his side prepares to face Sunderland. The Cottagers should display plenty of attacking intent, and face a side that has been flying high in the opening months of the campaign. As a result, both teams to score in this match appeals.
Despite the difficult start to the season, Fulham has looked strong at Craven Cottage, picking up 10 points from five home league games. Thus far, Arsenal is the only side to come to this ground and keep a clean sheet. Silva’s team beat Wolves 3-0 in its last home match, but Sunderland should offer more going forward than the relegation battlers.
Sunderland turned heads with a 2-2 draw against Arsenal in its last game. The Black Cats’ ability to find the net against the league’s toughest defence, coupled with their excellent start to the campaign, indicate the visitors should have no problems finding the net against Fulham.
These teams have met on two occasions since the start of the decade, both teams have scored in those matches.
Prediction: Both teams to score: -111
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Saturday, Nov. 22
Liverpool was comprehensively beaten by Manchester City at the Etihad last weekend. It was a result that sparked an inquest as the Reds’ poor start to the season continued, but we are backing Arne Slot’s team the bounce back with a win as it returns to Anfield.
The Reds have won their last two competitive matches at Anfield, keeping clean sheets in both. Firstly, Liverpool beat Aston Villa 2-0 in the league before conquering Real Madrid 1-0 in the Champions League.
Despite recent struggles, Slot’s team remains a formidable opponent at Anfield. In fact, the team has lost just two of its 24 home league games, winning 18 and scoring an average of 2.17 goals per game.
Sean Dyche took over Nottingham Forest with the club in free fall. Things have started to improve, as highlighted by the 3-1 home win over Leeds last weekend, but we shouldn’t expect a goal-laden game here. Instead, Dyche will focus on keeping things tight, which should keep the goal count down.
Nevertheless, the home side should have what it takes to get over the line against a Forest side that remains in a relegation fight.
Prediction: Liverpool to win & under 4.5 goals: -116
Wolves vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, Nov. 22
Wolves parted ways with Vitor Pereira, and have now appointed Rob Edwards, a former player for the club. The new manager will know the importance of good performance in his first match in charge, particularly at Molineux. That’s why we’re backing both teams to score when Wolves takes on a Crystal Palace side is in fine form.
Despite recent struggles, Wolves have scored in their last four home games. Those matches have seen an average of four goals, with Wolves’ opponents have scored an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Crystal Palace have 17 points after 11 matches. Oliver Glasner has earned plenty of plaudits for the way his team have played, but the team has struggled in recent weeks. However, it should have success against a Wolves side that has the xGA (expected goals against) of 16.29 per game.
Both teams have scored in the last four competitive meetings between these two teams. Those matches have seen an average of 4.75.
Prediction: Both teams to score: -111
Newcastle vs Manchester City
Saturday, Nov. 22
Manchester City delivered its best performance of the season last weekend, beating Liverpool 3-0 at the Etihad. Pep Guardiola’s side doesn’t have home advantage this time around, but a strong performance and three points in Newcastle would highlight its credentials as title contenders, so we are backing the visitors to get the job done.
Newcastle’s home form has been exceptional, with five consecutive wins at St. James’ Park. However, it has lost two of its five Premier League home matches. Those defeats came against Arsenal and Liverpool, the teams either side of Manchester City in the outright betting for the title. We’re expecting this match to play out similarly.
The Citizens have lost just one of their last 14 matches across all competitions, winning 11. During that impressive run, City has conceded just 0.57 goals per game and scored 2.36. Pep’s team is improving at both ends of the pitch, and Erling Haaland’s incredible form makes the visitors the best bet here.
City has an exceptional record against Newcastle, remaining unbeaten in the last 12 league meetings between the sides. Over that period, Pep’s team has won nine, netting an average of three goals per game, 2.08 more than Newcastle.
Prediction: Manchester City to win: +100
Manchester City to win outright
Leeds vs Aston Villa
Sunday, Nov. 23
Leeds are just a point above the relegation zone heading into the weekend. Daniel Farke is the favorite to be the next Premier League manager sacked, so this could be a cagey affair.
Farke’s team has picked up 8 points from five home league home games thus far, with just one defeat at Elland Road. However, Leeds have record just one win in its last six competitive games, so we are backing the draw here.
Goals have been scarce in Aston Villa away matches, so this will be a game of fine margins. So far this season, Unai Emery’s side has played five league games on the road. In those matches, Villa has scored an average of 0.6 per game and conceded one per game. Two of those have ended in a draw, so the prospect of another closely contested affair makes the draw very appealing.
Aston Villa last played at this ground back in 2022. The visitors were in the ascendancy, but the game ultimately finished 0-0. A draw could be on the cards once again.
Prediction: Draw: +230
Arsenal vs Tottenham
Sunday, Nov. 23
Arsenal is the favourite for the title and boasts the best defensive record in the Premier League. The Gunners take on their local rivals here, but we are backing them to win and keep a clean sheet.
Mikel Arteta’s team seldom gives away chances. Although Sunderland managed a 2-2 draw against Arsenal prior to the international break, the Black Cats accumulated an xG of 0.44, indicating that the Gunners were unfortunate to concede twice.
Moreover, Arsenal has won its last five competitive matches at the Emirates, keeping a clean sheet in all of those games.
Tottenham, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at the start of this campaign. In fact, Spurs has now won just one of its last five domestic games, losing three, which doesn’t bode well as it prepares to face Arsenal.
Spurs’ recent struggles, along with Arsenal’s excellent defensive record at home means this selection represents value.
Prediction: Arsenal Win To Nil: +120
Arsenal to win to nil
Manchester United vs Everton
Monday, Nov. 24
Manchester United has drawn its last two matches, and is now unbeaten in five. The Red Devils’ have drastically improved in recent months, and it has started to pay dividends in terms of results. That’s why we are backing Ruben Amorim’s side to beat Everton at Old Trafford, which has been a happy hunting ground for United of late.
United’s decision to invest in the attacking during the summer has started to pay dividends. The team averages the third-most shots per game in the league, which has translated to 1.73 shots per game. This has helped Amorim’s team win its last four home matches.
Everton’s away form has been poor this season. David Moyes’ team has recorded just one win in five away league matches, losing three. In those games, the Toffees have scored 0.6 fewer goals per match than the opponent.
Manchester United has won its last four competitive games against Everton at Old Trafford. The Toffees haven’t won a competitive game at this ground since 2013, so we are tipping a home win here.
Prediction: Manchester United to win: -142