Winter weather and traffic conditions are creating headaches for drivers across North America. While snow, icy roads, and strong winds play a role, congestion and accident-prone streets can make delays inevitable—even in milder climates.
Using our Winter Road Delay Index, which combines snowfall, snow days, heaviest daily snowfall, wind gusts, and precipitation risk into a single score, we calculated each city’s likelihood of experiencing road delays this week.
Here’s a closer look at the Canadian and U.S. cities most at risk.
Key Findings
- St. Paul, MN tops U.S. cities with an 86% probability of delays, following heavy snow and strong winter winds.
- Quebec City, QC leads for Canada with a 67% probability of road delays, driven by significant snowfall and gusty winds.
- Syracuse, NY (59%) and Buffalo, NY (52%) face high winter disruption from snow accumulation and icy roads.
- Rochester, NY and Stamford, CT both have a 50% probability, making traffic slowdowns likely during winter weather events.
- Drivers in these top-ranked cities should plan extra travel time, as even moderate snow or freezing rain can turn regular commutes into frustrating delays.
Top 5 Canadian Cities for Winter Road Delays
| Rank | City | Total Snow (CM) | Snow Days(Out of 7) | Heaviest Day (CM) | Max Wind Gust (KM/hr) | Max Precipitation Chance (%) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quebec City, QC | 5.53 | 4 | 3.01 | 74.2 | 79 | 67% |
| 2 | Ottawa, ON | 4.37 | 3 | 2.97 | 71.3 | 63 | 57% |
| 2 | Calgary, AB | 4.27 | 2 | 3.08 | 66.2 | 84 | 57% |
| 4 | Montreal, QC | 3.01 | 2 | 2.73 | 71.6 | 54 | 51% |
| 4 | Halifax, NS | 3.5 | 3 | 2.03 | 65.5 | 97 | 51% |
1. Quebec City, QC – 67%
With over 5.5 cm of snow expected across four days, plus wind gusts reaching 74 km/h, Quebec City has the highest probability of road delays in Canada this week. Multiple snow days increase the risk of compacted snow and icy intersections, while steady precipitation raises the likelihood of slow-moving traffic.
2. Ottawa, ON – 57%
Forecast to receive more than 4 cm of snow, including a nearly 3 cm single-day accumulation, Ottawa, Ontario faces elevated disruption risk. Gusty conditions and repeated snowfall events could make peak-hour commuting noticeably slower.
2. Calgary, AB – 57%
Tied with Ottawa, Calgary combines moderate snowfall with a high 84% precipitation chance. A potential 3.08 cm single-day snowfall increases the risk of slick roads, particularly during morning and evening commutes.
4. Montreal, QC – 51%
With over 3 cm of snow expected and wind gusts above 70 km/h, Montreal sits just above the 50% delay threshold. While snowfall totals are moderate, steady winter conditions can quickly lead to congestion on major commuter routes.
4. Halifax, NS – 51%
Three snow days and the highest precipitation probability among the top five (97%) push Halifax into elevated risk territory. Wet snow, slush, and variable coastal conditions could create unpredictable driving conditions throughout the week.
Top 5 U.S. Cities for Winter Road Delays
| Rank | City | Total Snow (CM) | Snow Days(Out of 7) | Heaviest Day (CM) | Max Wind Gust (KM/hr) | Max Precipitation Chance (%) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Paul, MN | 9.03 | 2 | 8.12 | 101.2 | 53 | 86% |
| 2 | Syracuse, NY | 5.3 | 4 | 2.38 | 77 | 77 | 59% |
| 3 | Buffalo, NY | 4.11 | 4 | 2.66 | 68 | 64 | 52% |
| 4 | Rochester, NY | 3.98 | 3 | 2.52 | 72 | 75 | 50% |
| 5 | Stamford, CT | 4.27 | 3 | 2.73 | 56.9 | 72 | 50% |
1. St. Paul, MN – 86%
With over 9 cm of snow expected, a potential 8.12 cm single-day accumulation, and wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, St. Paul has the highest road delay probability in the U.S. this week. Blowing snow and reduced visibility could significantly impact commute times, making travel disruptions highly likely.
2. Syracuse, NY – 59%
Frequent snow days (four this week) and more than 5 cm of total accumulation put Syracuse firmly in high-risk territory. Combined with strong wind gusts and a 77% precipitation chance, drivers should expect icy stretches and slower traffic flow.
3. Buffalo, NY – 52%
Known for winter weather volatility, Buffalo is forecast to receive over 4 cm of snow across four days. While accumulation isn’t extreme, persistent snowfall increases the likelihood of slick roads and stop-and-go traffic.
4. Rochester, NY – 50%
With nearly 4 cm of snow expected, steady snow days, and gusty conditions, Rochester sits right at a 50% probability of road delays. Even moderate snowfall can cause meaningful disruptions during peak travel hours.
5. Stamford, CT – 50%
Forecast to see over 4 cm of snow and multiple snow days, Stamford rounds out the top five. While wind speeds are slightly lower than other high-risk cities, steady precipitation and snowfall elevate the likelihood of slower commutes.
Be Prepared For Winter Weather
Drivers in the top-ranked cities should prepare for moderate to severe travel disruptions this week. Even a short commute can take significantly longer in areas with heavy snow, high wind gusts, or a history of accident-prone streets. What drivers can do to mitigate winter weather:
- Check weather forecasts daily for updates on snow, ice, and wind.
- Plan extra travel time during peak hours, particularly in high-risk cities like Quebec City or St. Paul.
- Use alternate routes when possible, and avoid roads prone to accidents or congestion.
Methodology
The Winter Road Delay Index 2026 evaluates 103 cities across Canada and the U.S. to estimate the likelihood of delays over 7 days.
- Weather: Snowfall, snow days, heaviest daily snow, maximum wind gust, and precipitation chance (percent) were measured using forecast data from Open-Meteo.
- Risk Score: Each variable was normalized and combined to produce a 0–100 score, which represents the implied probability of road delays.
- Ranking: Cities are ranked by Risk Score, with higher scores indicating a greater likelihood of delays.
This method allows drivers to compare cities’ relative risk of winter travel disruptions—even in areas with little snow, congestion and precipitation can significantly increase the probability of delays.
You can see the full dataset here.