The pre-tournament Gold Medal favourite Canadiens will begin the knockout round of the 2026 World Junior Championships with versus a Slovakian side, which played to a record of 1-0-0-3 in the round robin phase. Canada is a massive favourite priced at -1334 on Bet365, which will have most bettors debating if there is value in backing Canada to cover the spread of -3.5.
These two sides met in the knockout phase of the 2023 World Junior Championships, and the underdog Slovaks were able to grind the game into overtime before Connor Bedard scored a stunning overtime winner to send Canada to the semi-finals before they eventually won Gold.
My best bet for Friday’s clash between Canada and Slovakia is to parlay Slovakia +4.5 and under 7.5 goals with Canada to win, which comes out to +125 on Bet365 (play to +115).
Canada vs. Slovakia best bet
While it may not be the most enticing bet for Canadian observers to sweat out, backing this game to be somewhat low-scoring and a mildly competitive Canadian win does seem to provide some value at +125. It’s not the kind of parlay I typically love to bet with several highly juiced legs, but at +125 it seems to be a decent way to try and get some action in on this David vs Goliath type matchup.
Despite their record, the Slovaks have had a fairly respectable tournament, having not lost by more than a goal. That includes a sound performance in a 3-2 loss to the Swedes in their tournament opener, and Sweden did look to be arguably the most well-rounded side in the round robin phase of the tournament.
Due to their lesser skill level, Head coach Peter Frühauf’s Slovakian side will certainly try to keep this matchup as battened down as possible early on, looking to keep five skaters below the puck and limit true Grade A scoring chances. Easier said than done versus a Canadian side that has scored at will throughout the tournament, but Slovakia has shown solid defensive structure at times and they should bring a cohesive effort into this knockout phase matchup.
Canadian head coach Dale Hunter has had to score their way out of trouble more than he would prefer throughout the tournament, in part due to the play of Carter George in goal. Canada has confirmed that it will pivot to Jack Ivankovic in goal in this matchup, which seems more than fair, as Ivankovic has been lights out historically while wearing the Maple Leaf and has had an excellent season with the University of Michigan, posting a .927 save percentage across 20 appearances.
It seems unlikely that Hunter’s side will reach too aggressively in this spot in order to generate offence and will likely look to play a steady, well-rounded game versus a Slovakian side offering far less offensive talent. Canada should be a safe bet to get it done, but I’m willing to tap into the idea that Slovakia can make this into somewhat of a slog, at least for long enough to keep the game under 7.5 goals and to lose by less than five goals.
Canada vs. Slovakia odds
| Canada moneyline odds | -1334 |
| Slovakia moneyline odds | +750 |
| Puck Line odds | Canada -3.5 (-112), Slovakia +3.5 (–118) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-162), Under 6.5 goals (+130) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Team Canada
It wasn’t the most outright dominant showing in the Round Robin phase from the Canadians, but they ultimately scooped up 11 of 12 possible points to finish as the top seed from Group B.
Hockey Canada made a fairly logical decision to move on from head coach Dave Cameron, among others, after a highly disappointing quarter-final exit versus Czechia a year ago. The team struggled mightily to score when it mattered, which seemingly proved many of the naysayers questioning various roster omissions correctly.
Though this year’s team has not looked entirely well-rounded at times and has had some hiccups, it has scored 6.25 goals per game and looked like the side with the most talented offensive side, which is the way a team drawing from the best talent pool in the world should look.
From everything we know about Dale Hunter as a head coach, though, he will certainly be preaching the need to clean things up from a defensive perspective heading towards a potential final with Sweden or the USA, after they allowed five goals against versus Czechia and four versus Finland.
Carter George has played to a save percentage of .844 in the tournament, and as a result it seems more than fair to turn to Ivankovic, who arguably has had a more impressive season than George entering the tournament. George’s struggles did force the Canadiens to press for offence more than they otherwise might have in this tournament, and Ivankovic potentially offering a higher level of play in the knockout round could keep Canada in lower-scoring game scripts more conducive to head coach Dale Hunter’s preferred style of play.
Zayne Parekh has been the most obvious standout for the Canadians, having generated eight points in four games while quarterbacking the top power play unit quite effectively. Parekh has done all he can to illustrate that he deserved to be on last year’s roster, particularly considering that he enters this tournament off of a fairly significant injury and was not fit to prepare in ideal fashion.
Betting Team Slovakia
Though it was ultimately a losing result, the Slovakians will surely look to the 2023 knockout phase matchup versus the Canadians as a source for inspiration ahead of this game. It is entirely unlikely that they will carry more of the overall play but will simply strive to limit complete defensive breakdowns and attempt to keep the Canadians to the outside in the offensive zone, and look hang around to potentially break through with the man advantage.
The Slovakians allowed six goals against in even-strength play in the group stage but struggled mightily in achieving a success rate of just 60% while shorthanded. It’s easier said than done in a matchup where you are always likely to spend a lot of time playing in the defensive zone, but if Slovakia can limit the number of penalties taken in this game, its defensive play at even strength suggests it could have a chance of hanging around in this matchup.
Slovakia’s offence has been highly reliant on Tomas Chrenko, who has looked tremendous throughout the tournament while generating five goals, eight points and 18 shots on goal.
It’s probably not realistic for the Slovaks to hang around with Canada in a fairly wide open affair, and it would likely be wise for the team to try and make this game into somewhat of a Chess match, as we saw from team Latvia when they managed to drag Canada into overtime in a very sleepy, low-event matchup.