Canada will look to respond from a deflating 5-0 loss to a rival United States squad Thursday, when they face off against Finland in a matchup that was originally scheduled to be their Olympic women’s hockey tournament opener on February 5th, but it was postponed due to a virus circulating around the Finnish team.
Head coach Troy Ryan’s Canadian side was entirely outclassed and outmatched in Tuesday’s matchup versus a faster, more talented United States squad. It’s logical to expect that they will display plenty of urgency in attempting to author a response in a drastically softer matchup on Thursday, but it seems possible that the 2026 Canadian Olympic side may be slightly overvalued at this point.
My best bet for Olympic women’s hockey Canada vs Finland is backing Finland +4.5 Goals at -114 (bet365).
Canada vs. Finland Best Bet: Finland +4.5 Goals
Finland puck line +4.5
After a humiliating loss to the Americans, the Canadians will surely be eager to take some frustrations out on a significantly less formidable Finnish side in this matchup. That is easy to understand, and it also remains clear that there is a huge gap between the U.S, Canada, and all the other teams in this tournament.
With those things noted, it still seems to be a tall ask to expect Ryan’s side to cover a spread of 4.5 goals based on the flaws we have seen in their game, and the way that Finland has competed throughout the tournament.
Yes, Team USA did cover this exact spread with a 5-0 win in Finland’s tournament opener, but it appears clear at this point that the American roster is drastically more dynamic than Canada’s, and has been more effective at opening teams up in even-strength play in this tournament. Finland’s rhythm may also have been slightly out of whack in that matchup following an isolation period for the illness that was spreading across the team.
Finland played respectably in their 2-0 loss to Czechia, before putting together a strong 3-1 victory over Switzerland.
Canada will undoubtedly own the vast majority of the play in this matchup, but they have struggled to create true Grade “A” chances in even-strength play, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they rack up over forty or more shots in this matchup while producing four goals or less.
Finland will strive to keep five skaters below the puck in front of goal and attempt to protect “home plate.” It might not be overly pretty, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Canada struggles to truly open them up despite surely owning the vast majority of possession and shots on goal.
Canada has not won by more than four goals in this tournament, and I’m not sold that trend is likely to change Thursday. Finland still presents as a superior side to Switzerland and should at worst be able to hang around as well as Switzerland did in a 4-0 loss to Canada.
Betting Team Canada
On the men’s side of things, we have seen Canada respond from group stage losses to the USA with wins in the knockout stages of the 4 Nations Face-Off and 2010 Olympics. A group stage loss isn’t the be-all-and-end-all. Canada can also throw the excuse out there that they did not have captain Marie-Philip Poulin in the lineup on Tuesday.
Still, those thoughts feel more likely to prove to be temporary excuses than anything truly meaningful at this point. Ryan’s side looked extremely stale offensively in the loss and was entirely outclassed in every aspect of the game. It’s extremely hard to believe that one forward in Poulin, or a potential lack of do-or-die urgency, would have changed the result.
Canada passed on bringing plenty of high-end talent into this tournament, opting to stick with an older, less-talented roster, being too afraid to move on from a generation that has historically been highly successful but at this point has seemingly been overtaken by a United States roster offering plenty of highly skilled young talents.
There’s a certain stubbornness surrounding the women’s and also even the men’s programs within Hockey Canada. They’d rather stick with the veterans they trust than consider the possibility that during the time between meaningful tournaments certain players have surpassed established stars.
For a nation as dominant in hockey as Canada, any logical roster can compete for a gold medal, and players from a winning team should not be simply be handed a free pass to get into the next tournament.
With regard to the current women’s roster, that point seems especially true, as the team stuck with some older skaters from the 2022 roster, despite the fact that the Rivalry Series made it quite clear that it was time for meaningful change.
Canada passed on bringing high-level NCAA players such as Chloe Primerano, Caitlin Kraemer, and Emma Pais. They didn’t bring Rebecca Leslie, who’s currently fifth in the PWHL in scoring, or Mae Batherson, who ranks second in PWHL scoring among defenders.
At this point, it feels like Canada’s avenues to besting the USA are fairly one-dimensional, and they didn’t need to be. They will likely need to play close to mistake-free in the Gold Medal Game, receive an elite performance in goal, and likely win the special teams battle.
Even versus weaker sides in this tournament, their transition game and attack off the rush have not looked overly convincing, which could provide an avenue for a team like Finland to hang around, at least relative to previous tournaments.
At five-on-five, the US generated 20 scoring chances compared to Canada’s total of nine on Tuesday, and the eye-test would arguably raise even greater concern as out of those tracked scoring chances, the Americans looks were probably on average of higher quality.
Despite how horribly Tuesday’s game went, Ryan did not really shuffle his offensive lines at any point or seem to adjust the neutral zone regroup tactics or with regard to the forecheck, which seems fairly hard to believe. At that point, in a short tournament, would you not believe it’s logical to at least try to shake things up and see what happens?
Laura Stacey led all Canadian skaters with three scoring chances, while Brianne Jenner had two scoring chances from five attempts and had two created scoring chance assists. Jenner played less than both Blayre Turnbull and Sarah Nurse, which seems to be another debatable decision given that she was arguably Canada’s best centre in the game.
It also seems fair to criticize Ryan for only offering Claire Thompson 14:32 of time-on-ice, less than seventh defender Kati Tobin. One of Canada’s key weaknesses seems to be a lack of creativity and mobility on the back end, and with that in mind, it seems puzzling that Thompson wasn’t awarded more minutes.
Poulin is considered doubtful to play in this matchup, which makes sense given that it does not hold much relevance from a seeding perspective, so it would be illogical to rush the team captain back into action.
Betting Finland
Through their first three games of the tournament, Finland is 1-2-0-0 and has looked roughly as expected in losing to Czechia and the United States, but besting Switzerland with a strong effort. Finland entered the tournament priced as the fourth-most likely team to win a medal, and oddsmakers have not changed their stance on that, with Finland currently priced at +175 to medal.
Losing to Switzerland would always have been a big letdown, while beating either the U.S. or Canada would be a monster upset. Therefore, the main swing game regarding how head coach Juuso Toivola evaluated his side’s preliminary tournament was always likely to be their matchup versus Czechia, as the two are likely to battle for bronze.
Finland could have fared better in that matchup, as they did outshoot Czechia 25-24. Natalie Mlynkova scored on a beautiful individual effort for Czechia, while Klara Peslarova outdueled Anni Keisala, but it was a respectable effort from Finland and a matchup that could have ended more favourably.
The Finns have a handful of skaters (Petra Nieminen, Viivi Vainikka, Elisa Holopainen, Jennina Nylund, Emila Vesa, Jenni Hiirikoski, and Sanni Rantala) who have opted to continue competing in the SDHL since the startup of the PWHL. The gap between the SDHL and PWHL is considered to be very wide, and it’s possible that competing in a weaker league has not kept those skaters as sharp as the women competing in what is a full-blown professional league, the PWHL.
Finland’s defensive core has three fairly convincing options, but has a distinct lack of depth relative to the gold medal favourites. Jenni Hiirikoski, PWHL defender Ronja Savolainen, Nelli Laitinen, and Sanni Rantala should form two relatively stable units, but the depth beyond that is a significant concern.
It seems likely that Sanni Ahola will get the start in this matchup as opposed to Anni Keisala, after Ahola stopped 14 of 15 shots in Finland’s win over Switzerland.
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