There’s certainly an argument to be made that from a neutral viewing perspective Friday’s Olympic hockey clash between rivals Finland and Sweden is the most intriguing matchup of the men’s preliminary round.
Finland having lost in regulation to Slovakia in its opening matchup adds another level of intrigue, as a regulation loss for Finland in this matchup would put it at serious risk of not qualifying for the knockout stage. You can expect maximum urgency from the Finns in this matchup, but online sportsbooks give them just a 38% chance of winning this pivotal matchup.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for this exciting Olympic hockey matchup, as well as the projected lineups and relevant betting notes for both teams.
Finland vs. Sweden Best Bet: Lucas Raymond to Score +325
Lucas Raymond to score
Sweden’s top line of William Nylander, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Adrian Kempe was undoubtedly the team’s best unit in their matchup versus a weak Italian side on Wednesday. Nylander recorded one goal from five shots on target, and missed the net on some borderline tap-ins. Ek had a number of chances right in tight, and also looks like an appealing bet priced at +325 to score.
Those three will surely be popular targets in Friday’s matchup, with backing Nylander to score (+170) likely to be the most popular prop bet, and those do seem like reasonable options to me.
A price of +325 for Raymond to score looks particularly enticing, however, considering his role on the team and play at the NHL level this season. Raymond skated at even strength alongside Jesper Bratt and Elias Lindholm, and the presence of Bratt on his line is a key reason this number looks enticing.
Bratt is an extremely dynamic skater who’s proven to be a highly underrated playmaker at the NHL level in recent years. He’s put up 212 points and 151 assists over his last 220 NHL games, but taken a bit of a step back this year skating on a New Jersey Devils side that has been a massive disappointment offensively.
Raymond is also a great playmaker, but he has shown some strong goal-scoring upside with 77 goals over his last 220 games played at the NHL level. He’s in the midst of a tremendous season for the overachieving Detroit Red Wings, leading the team with 60 points in 56 games played.
Sweden’s top power-play unit, compiled of Rasmus Dahlin, Nylander, Ek, Adrian Kempe, and Raymond could prove to be quite excellent in this tournament.
Raymond’s play didn’t quite pop as much of some other Swedish skaters versus Italy, but that’s only one game, and I’ve been really high on his play this season and like his role on the team. At +325, we seem to be getting a long enough price to take a stab on a player who seems to be flying a little under the radar in this tournament.
Finland vs. Sweden Odds
| Finland moneyline odds | +160 |
| Sweden moneyline odds | -193 |
| Puck Line odds | Finland +1.5 (-167), Sweden -1.5 (+140) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-176), Under 5.5 (+145) |
Betting Finland
Finland seemed to exhibit an appropriate level of urgency throughout their 4-1 loss on Wednesday in outshooting Slovakia 39-24. However, it did not look entirely concerted in the offensive zone, and Slovakia did a good job of bending but not breaking.
The complete defensive breakdowns were mainly made by Finland, as we saw on Juraj Slafkovsky’s tournament-opening tally. Goaltending played a part in the result, to be sure, but it does seem reasonable to say that Slovakia earned the result despite carrying less of the overall play.
It’s a short tournament, and we have seen teams bounce back historically from some stinkers in the preliminary round, such as the 2010 Canadian gold medal team which ended up in a do-or-die qualification game versus Germany. It’s not remotely unrealistic to expect more from Finland the rest of the way.
It is possible that this year’s Finnish side may not be as scrappy as ones from years past, though. While it has three far-better-than-average defenders in Miro Heiskanen, Nikko Mikkola and Esa Lindell, the other three are below-average skaters at the NHL level. While Rasmus Ristolainen, Olli Maatta, and Henri Jokiharju are passable options, they aren’t as strong as depth options on full-fledged powerhouses like Sweden.
Finland’s offensive depth also may not be quite as strong, though their bottom two offensive units actually outperformed the top two units in the opener. Head coach Antti Pennanen played all of his forwards fairly evenly, which likely came down to the fact that elite skaters such as Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen were not at their best.
The team will certainly need more from its top offensive stars such as Hintz, Rantanen, and Sebastian Aho in order to have a chance at medalling in this tournament and succeeding in Friday’s matchup. Hintz and Rantanen skated just 15:44 and 15:25, respectively, in the opener. Those marks seemed fair, as the two did not play overly well, but if they have a strong start in this matchup, Pennanen will surely look to offer them more significant usage.
Juuse Saros also looks to be a question mark in goal. He was not dominant in the opener, stopping 21 of 24 shots faced, after finishing with an .870 save percentage at the 4 Nations Face-Off last February. Saros holds a -20.4 GSAx rating across his last 102 starts at the NHL level, and it seems possible that his Vezina-calibre days are behind him.
At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether it will be Saros or Kevin Lankinen who gets the start on Friday, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Finland pivot to Lankinen based on Saros’s recent work with the national team and at the NHL level. Lankinen holds a -9.9 GSAx and .876 save percentage across 32 appearances with the Vancouver Canucks this season, though, so he is also not an entirely convincing option by any means.
Betting Sweden
Sweden ultimately escaped somewhat of a scare versus Italy with a 5-2 win, in a game which remained tied late into the second period. Sweden easily could have produced more than five goals, given that it racked up 59 shots on target, including a ton of truly threatening looks.
It doesn’t seem overly wise to read too much into that matchup, given that Italy projects to be the worst team in the tournament by a fairly notable margin. The one potential concern that may hold some merit, however, was the shaky performance of Filip Gustavsson in goal.
Gustavsson made a disastrous mistake on Italy’s first goal, and never looked entirely comfortable from that point on, not that he faced much action in order to get into a rhythm. Based on the most recent reports, it sounds as though Gustavsson will remain Sweden’s starter in this matchup, which seems reasonable given that the team likely viewed him as their clear-cut number-one option entering the tournament.
Gustavsson holds a +3.0 GSAx rating and .906 save percentage in 36 games with the Minnesota Wild this season.
William Nylander missed practice once again on Thursday, as he continues to deal with what seems to be a nagging injury. Nylander did not look hampered in the opener and was excellent in his final two pre-Olympic NHL games, recording four points.
Filip Forsberg played under two minutes in the opener and is seemingly still the 13th forward, which is fairly puzzling. He made a brutal turnover in the opener and didn’t see the ice afterwards, but it’s certainly surprising that a player of his calibre is seemingly getting no opportunity to prove himself.
Sweden’s blue line could prove to be a massive strength in this tournament, offering a good mix of elite shutdown options and offensive upside. Gustav Forsling and Rasmus Dahlin were entirely dominant in the opener, with Dahlin’s offensive prowess on full display while racking up three assists in a soft matchup. It feels as though Buffalo becoming competitive has shined more light on how dominant Dahlin has become, but this tournament certainly could be a full on coming out party for the former first overall pick.
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