The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to earn two more critical points Monday as they take on the Minnesota Wild in an exciting inter-conference matchup.
The Leafs have gone 8-1-3 since the holiday break, but, unfortunately, as most of the NHL Atlantic Division has been scorching hot in the same span, they are still outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture entering this matchup. They are 16-5-5 on home ice this season but are considered to have a 50-50 shot to win Monday’s matchup based on the current betting prices.
Though Quinn Hughes has been true to form since being acquired by the Wild on December 13th, the Wild have looked more mortal of late, playing to a 4-3-3 record. In order for them to be viewed in the same tier as the full-fledged Stanley Cup contenders, GM Bill Guerin will likely need to acquire at least one more needle-moving forward, and their offensive depth looks particularly concerning with Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Marcus Johansson currently sidelined.
Our same game parlay comes out to +525 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same-game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Monday’s NHL slate.
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
- Vladimir Tarasenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Auston Matthews Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Wild vs. Maple Leafs Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Maple Leafs Moneyline
Oddsmakers seem to be taking a stance that they do not believe the Leafs have been playing quite as well as their record suggests recently. They were underdogs in Saturday’s matchup against the Jets and larger-than-expected underdogs in the previous two games of the road trip, though both ultimately ended in losses.
The Leafs have played to an expected goal share of just 45.89% since the break, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL in that span. They have allowed 30.9 shots against per 60 in that span, which is the third-worst clip in the NHL. A PDO of 104.49 has allowed the Leafs to find success despite those concerns.
So while I see the arguments for regression from the Leafs currently, looking away from the numbers, there have still been a lot of positives going on with the team that could be sustainable.
When healthy, Joseph Woll has played at a high level over the last two seasons, and he is expected to start in Monday’s matchup. The Leafs’ power play has been extremely effective since relieving Marc Savard of his duties, and it would make sense to see the Leafs continue to excel in that area of the game, considering the talent offered on the top unit.
And while the Leafs will be without William Nylander and potentially Matthew Knies, who is a game-time decision, the Wild’s injury situation is drastically worse.
Boldy has been one of the better wingers in the NHL this season, with 27 goals and 51 points in 48 games, all while offering an elite level of play defensively. Ek is one of the better two-way centers in the NHL, and without him in the lineup, Minnesota’s depth down the middle is quite concerning.
Jonas Brodin has also been one of the NHL’s best shutdown defenders this season, and his absence makes the Wild’s blue line much less convincing.
The Leafs should have a good chance to move their record on home ice to 17-5-5 in this important matchup, as they look to continue a furious push for a playoff spot.
Leg 2: Vladimir Tarasenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
A price of +155 for Tarasenko to record over 2.5 shots on goal looks quite appealing given his expected usage in Monday’s matchup. Tarasenko is expected to remain in a shooter’s role on the Wild’s top power play unit and on the team’s second line alongside Danila Yurov and Yakov Trenin.
Skating in the same role on Saturday in Buffalo, Tarasenko recorded two points and five shots on goal across 15:55 of time on ice. Over the previous two games, he’s had 13 shot attempts and eight on target.
Tarasenko has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last eight games, which is quite encouraging given how many shots the Leafs have allowed recently and the fact that he is expected to garner greater usage in Monday’s matchup than he has in the majority of recent matchups.
Leg 3: Auston Matthews Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Typically, rounding out parlays with “watered down” legs is not overly sharp, as in general, oddsmakers can juice this type of leg a little more heavily (not offering fair value) without making it too obvious, as they do not have a two-way market for O/U 2.5 shots on target. But in this specific instance, mixing in Matthews to record just three shots seems reasonable, as it allows bet365 users to unlock the 30% boost for a three-leg parlay.
With that said, backing Matthews to surpass his standard total of 3.5 shots on goal also appears to be a valid option, which would push the parlay to +750.
Either way, the case for Matthews to manage at least three shots on goal is quite strong. Anyone who’s followed the Leafs recently is aware of the fact that Matthews has looked like his former self of late, scoring 10 goals over the last 11 games. In that span, the Leafs captain has averaged 3.81 shots per game and 8 attempts per game.
The Wild have been much less of a defensive juggernaut recently, as in eight games this month, they’ve allowed 29.17 shots against per 60. Part of that obviously comes down to the critical pieces missing from the lineup, and the Wild will be as shorthanded as ever in Monday’s matchup.