The Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche will face off Thursday in a heavyweight Central Division clash, arguably the most enticing matchup out of the NHL‘s hefty 12-game slate.
The Wild are 16-5-5 since acquiring Quinn Hughes and enter this matchup in the midst of a five-game winning streak. Still, they trail the Avalanche by eight points in the division, and appear destined for a tough first-round matchup versus the Dallas Stars.
While this matchup will provide a good measuring stick for both of sides, there are some other interesting dynamics at play. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will face off against Team USA GM Bill Guerin’s side, as well as gold medal winners Hughes and Matt Boldy, while the hockey world continues to debate who the best defender alive is.
I don’t think we are typically guilty of keeping things too “square” with these same game parlays, which have been performing effectively of late after a poor start to the year. Thursday’s combination is certainly as square as it gets; however, I’m buying into the narrative that MacKinnon, Makar, and Hughes will be eager to show out in this exciting matchup.
Our NHL samegame parlay prices out at +360 prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users for any matchup from Thursday’s slate.
- Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165 straight bet odds)
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 Points (-105 straight bet odds)
- Quinn Hughes to Record a Point (-190 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Wild/Avalanche Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165 straight bet odds)
Having just travelled home from Milan on Monday after playing big minutes in the Gold Medal Game, Makar is undoubtedly dealing with a strenuous and fatiguing situation in this back-to-back spot. He played fewer minutes than usual in Colorado’s 4-2 win in Utah on Wednesday, which was surely an effort to try and leave him moderately prepared for this high-profile showdown.
Though Makar’s potential level of fatigue is a concern, I’m expecting he will dig in and author a solid performance in this matchup. And if there was one theme that we saw from Wednesday’s initial slate post-Olympics, which I was guilty of, it’s that on average skaters who played key roles in the Olympics did not offer worse than usual form.
His recent shot volume and attempt rates are encouraging. Over the last 10 games Makar has attempted 8.9 shots per game. Defenders will always have shot attempts that do not reach the target at a higher rate than forwards, but that’s still an eye-popping output.
When these teams last met, Makar recorded a goal and two assists, as well as seven shots on goal. Makar and the Avalanche seemed to show some complacency throughout a rough month of January, but those games were relatively meaningless. This heavyweight showdown should catch the eye of the Avalanche, and I’m expecting Makar and MacKinnon to be at their best.
Leg 2: Nathan MacKinnon Over 1.5 Points (-105 straight bet odds)
Perhaps even more so than with Makar, this is a bit of a scary spot to back MacKinnon. He did not look entirely right throughout the Olympics, and then ultimately rested Wednesday versus the Utah Mammoth.
Still, a lot of people are speculating that MacKinnon is poised to take his frustrations from the Gold Medal Game and his shocking miss in the third period in particular out on the rest of the NHL. He’s one of the most competitive skaters in the league, and we have seen time and time again that he is able to harness frustration into elite play, something not everyone is capable of.
The Wild are undoubtedly a better-than-average defensive team, but MacKinnon has still managed four points in the first two matchups of the season versus Minnesota. While it’s a tougher matchup than usual for production, it’s also more likely to be a competitive game in which Colorado’s elite stars are employed to help carry the team to victory.
Wild starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson’s form also has been pretty unconvincing of late. Though the Wild have still found team success, Gustavsson has struggled to an .895 save percentage over his last 10 starts and he did not have a good showing at the Olympics.
The price for MacKinnon to record two points has often been closer to -130 or -140 in the later half of the year, so Thursday’s price of -105 is putting a lot of stock into the difficulty of the matchup. He’s recorded over 1.5 points in 54.5% of games this year, which suggests that in a nutshell, this price is perfectly playable, but I’m also buying into the narrative that MacKinnon will be at his best in this matchup.
Leg 3: Quinn Hughes Over 0.5 Points (-190 straight bet odds)
Like Makar and MacKinnon, this is obviously a bit of a scary spot for Hughes with potential fatigue setting in. However, as we touched on, if you examine Wednesday’s statistics, skaters that appeared in the Olympics and in the medal round, in particular, did not seem to offer worse form than usual.
Hughes enters this matchup in the midst of a 10-game point streak in which he’s racked up 18 points. He’s put up 34 points in 26 games since arriving in Minnesota, and his level of production has risen since he’s seemingly become fully acclimated.
He obviously showed extremely well in the Olympics with eight points in six games, and based on his recent form a price of -190 for Hughes to record one point seems perfectly reasonable.
The Avalanche have also allowed 3.33 goals against over the last 12 games, and though I do expect them to clean it up to some extent moving forward, they do not seem to be as much of a nightmare matchup for opposing skaters to produce as they once did.
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