The upcoming NHL matchup between the Philadelphia Flyers and Ottawa Senators on November 8 promises an exciting clash for fans and sports bettors alike.
Let’s construct a same game parlay for this Saturday matinee that consists of two legs:
- Game total over 5.5 goals
- Senators moneyline
Nick’s Senators/Flyers SGP
Leg 1 – Game total over 5.5 goals
Given that the Senators’ last 10 games have featured an average combined total of 7.0 goals, it’s interesting to see a low opening total of 5.5 for Saturday’s matinee between the Senators and Flyers.
Yes, both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NHL in xGA/60 this season, and the Flyers, in particular, project as a fairly low-event team. These teams also met in Ottawa on October 23rd, and the Flyers won a tight-knit 2-1 affair.
With those factors in mind, I’m still not sold that we will see less than 5.5 goals in an average matchup between these sides, and more importantly, this leg correlates well with the second leg of our parlay.
The Senators rank ninth in the NHL with a goal-per-game average of 3.43 this season. They have two legitimate finishing threats on each of their top three lines and also own the NHL’s seventh-most effective power play. Ottawa has outscored its analytical expectations this season, but the level of skill and scoring talent throughout the lineup likely is not well quantified from an analytical perspective.
While I’m a believer in the Sens’ offensive upside, it’s going to be tough for the team to finish too far up the standings if Linus Ullmark is unable to clean up his game. Ullmark has played to a -8.2 GSAx rating and a .863 save percentage in 12 appearances this season.
We can live with betting this game to go over its low total of 5.5 if Flyers number-one goaltender Dan Vladar gets the start, but 5.5 will provide significant value if the Flyers opt to start backup Samuel Ersson. As Ersson has been injured, Vladar has started four of the last five games. Ersson served as the backup on Thursday, but it’s possible he will get his fifth start of the season in this matchup. He holds an .876 save percentage in five starts this season, and a -19.9 GSAx rating in 47 appearances last season.
Leg 2 – Senators moneyline
From a general perspective, I’d actually agree with oddsmakers in pricing this matchup as a pick’em at the time of writing. However, the possibility of the Senators winning a game featuring over 5.5 goals seems to be underrated, as adding over 5.5 goals to the Senators moneyline moves the number for Ottawa to win from -110 to +225.
Only one of the Senators’ six wins this season has come in games featuring less than six goals, and on average, games that the Senators have won this season have featured 7.16 combined goals.
The balanced production from each of the Senators’ top three offensive units has offered this season has been a major strength. Top-liners Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle have combined for 19 points in 25 combined games, Dylan Cozens has recorded six goals in 14 games playing mainly on the second line, while Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux have shown excellent chemistry on the third unit while combining for 23 points.
Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have not been sharp enough on average for the Senators to succeed in low-scoring games, but they have shown the firepower to score their way out of trouble this season.
Considering the price of +225 for the Senators to win this game while it goes over its low total of 5.5, I see value in targeting the angle that the Senators will win a fairly high-scoring matchup Saturday with what could be a notably shaky goaltending matchup on the horizon.