After being shut out for the third time in their opening five games Tuesday versus the Edmonton Oilers, the New York Rangers will look to respond Thursday in a marquee NHL matchup versus the Toronto Maple Leafs. Though the Rangers hold a modest 2-3-0 record so far, they are the toughest opponent that the Leafs have faced so far this season based on preseason expectations.
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs best bet
Rangers moneyline
My best bet for Thursday’s clash between the Rangers and Maple Leafs is backing the Rangers to win at +125.
The Rangers have had a very tough time capitalizing on their high-quality scoring chances this season, but their overall process has looked much more sound under new head coach Mike Sullivan, and they should start to find better results in the near future.
The Rangers’ last two matchups have come versus tough opponents, being the Oilers and Washington Capitals, who led the Eastern Conference in points last season and are off to a 3-1-0 start. In those matchups, the eye test suggested New York deserved a better result, and the analytics agree, as it led 6.69 to 2.72 in expected goal share.
Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been true to form in stopping .972 percent of the shots he’s faced this season, and he’s benefitted from the Rangers’ improved defensive play relative to last season.
The Leafs, meanwhile, are off to a fairly modest 2-2-0 start, which hasn’t felt overly concerning or overly impressive. They hold a 49.56% expected goal share across all strengths in their first four games, none of which have come against teams that hold betting odds of less than +3300 to win the Stanley Cup season.
Based on Shesterkin’s dominance and their improved defensive play, the Rangers should be able to hang around and make this into a coin-flip type of matchup. At a price of +125, I’m happy to take a shot backing a Rangers side that is due for positive regression offensively.
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs odds
| Rangers moneyline odds | +125 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -150 |
| Puck line odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170), Rangers +1.5 (-205) |
| Date/time | Oct. 16, 7 p.m. ET |
Betting the Rangers (2-3-0 SU, 3-2-0 ATS, 1-4-0 o/u)
After winning the Presidents’ Trophy in the 2023-24 season, the Rangers bottomed out last year, finishing with only 85 points in a year where everything seemed to go wrong. As a result, GM Chris Drury opted to relieve head coach Peter Laviolette, who did not seem to have any answers for the team’s disorganized play of his duties, this offseason.
Drury brought in a proven NHL coach in Mike Sullivan, who holds a record of 481-314-112 as an NHL head coach and led the Pittsburgh Penguins to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships.
Sullivan’s priority entering the season was to clean up the Rangers’ defensive structure, and he has found success in that regard so far this season. The Rangers rank 10th in xGA/60 at even strength and have allowed just 1.40 goals against per game where it counts.
New York’s revamped defensive core has been much improved relative to last season in the early going, and adding an elite shutdown defender in Vladislav Gavrikov has been a key reason why.
The Rangers lineup does lack offensive upside in the bottom six, but there is still plenty of high-end offensive talent on the first two units, and scoring goals should not be such a struggle moving forward. They currently rank sixth in xGF/60 during five-on-five play but have scored on just 5.35% of shots on goal.
Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and J.T. Miller may be aging past their true primes, but the Rangers still do not project as a team that should struggle to finish scoring chances this season, and it’s easy to agree with the analytics that suggest the Rangers are due to start producing at a higher level.
Betting the Maple Leafs (2-2-0 SU, 2-2-0 ATS, 3-1-0 o/u)
After numerous early postseason exits following excellent regular seasons, the Maple Leafs finally shook up their roster in a meaningful fashion this offseason, allowing Mitch Marner to depart to the Vegas Golden Knights in what seemed to be a fairly mutual decision from both the player and team.
Through four games, it feels like we still don’t really know what the Leafs are without Marner. They have generated 4.25 goals per game so far this season, but that mark is aided by three empty-net goals, and they rank 17th in the league in xGF/60 in even strength play.
The Leafs opted to stand pat with last season’s defensive core, bringing in no new defenders in the offseason. While their roster holds many blue-liners capable of defending effectively in their own zone, their unit lacks a true number-one defender and is not overly adept at driving play overall.
Toronto’s 47.84% expected goal share is particularly concerning when you look at the teams it has faced so far this season. While the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings could be improved this season, the Leafs still haven’t faced any teams that are likely to truly contend for the Stanley Cup this season.
And looking away from the analytics, none of the Leafs’ first four performances have been overly dominant, even if a 2-2-0 record is respectable.
Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combined to stop 42.6 goals above expected last season, which may have led observers to believe that head coach Craig Berube had progressed the team’s defensive game more so than he actually had. The Leafs have allowed 3.75 goals against per game this season, as their goaltenders hold a combined save percentage of just .882.
While I am a believer that Stolarz is a true number-one goaltender at the NHL level, a slight step backwards relative to last season may expose a defensive process which may have been slightly overrated last season.