As of Saturday, November 9th, the Calgary Flames were still considered the second favourite to finish dead last in the NHL, priced at +450 at bet365 following a 4-0 loss on home ice versus a Chicago Blackhawks side that was the preseason betting favourite to finish last.
Following a regulation loss to the St. Louis Blues on Monday, the price for the Flames to finish last is now down to +375, making them the outright favourites in this market.
Flames to finish with the least amount of points in NHL
Online sportsbooks are reluctant to overreact to early-season results in this type of market, but if the Flames are to lose Thursday’s matchup to the San Jose Sharks, my expectation is that we see significant movement in the market, more so than simply another loss would typically merit.
The Flames are only four points behind the Nashville Predators and Buffalo Sabres with 64 games left to play. In that regard, I can see how oddsmakers believe they have only a 21.05% chance of finishing in last place, as there is still plenty of hockey left to play. However, there is a strong case that the Flames truly are the worst team in the NHL, and with that in mind, a price of +375 starts to look quite appealing.
Calgary’s recent underlying results have been respectable, and its preseason power rating relative to teams like the Blackhawks and Sharks is certainly still factoring into oddsmakers’ prices.
Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold a 49.17% expected goal share, which ranks 16th in the NHL. However, as they have shot just 8.09% in that span, they are 3-6-1.
While the underlying numbers suggest that the Flames are due for positive regression offensively, they held the second-lowest shooting percentage in the NHL last season, and offer a roster that struggles mightily to create truly threatening scoring opportunities.
The Blackhawks and Sharks have gotten off to surprisingly excellent starts but are still priced as the second and fourth favourites, respectively, to finish last. Both are likely to start offering lesser results moving forward, but I’m not sold that either side is actually worse than the Flames. The Flames are already nine points back of San Jose and 10 back of Chicago, which is a significant gap to close considering how slowly teams in this race will likely accumulate points.
The Nashville Predators are priced as the third favorites in the market to finish dead last, and I would agree that they are a legitimate contender. However, the Flames are still two wins behind the Predators already, and I’d still argue that the Predators look to be a slightly superior side.
Buy in now on the Flames
At +375, there appears to be strong value in locking in the Flames to finish dead last this season. Even if they win tonight’s game, it’s not a position that I’d be upset to have; Calgary has the toughest remaining schedule in the NHL.
While backing the Flames to finish last at +375 is my preferred option ahead of Thursday’s matchup, there does look to be value in betting the Sharks to win tonight’s game at +130.
The Sharks are 7-2-1 over their 10 games, with wins over high-quality sides such as the Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, and New Jersey Devils. Their underlying results from that span are considerably worse than the Flames’, which is certainly a big reason they are still sizeable underdogs in tonight’s matchup at +130. However, San Jose has played a tough schedule recently and offers more dynamic offensive skaters likely to continue finishing chances at a higher rate than Calgary has.
The Flames, meanwhile, have lost four of their last six matchups versus a notably soft schedule, scoring only 1.83 goals per game. Aging veterans Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau are on pace to lead the team with roughly 50 points, which is quite concerning given that young talents such as Connor Zary and Matthew Coronato have had highly disappointing starts to the year.
Fading the Flames at this kind of price versus any team right now seems like a good option. They have simply not shown the kind of offensive upside to pull away from even the NHL’s worst sides, and that does not appear likely to change anytime soon.