Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop picks available from Monday’s six-game slate.
February finished with a thud, as Friday’s card went 0-2 to make it two straight losing cards. Hopefully, we can kick off the month of March with a winning card and push our yearly record above its current mark of +15.63 units across 125 selections.
Zach Werenski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal/Over 0.5 Points Parlay: -105
Werenski parlay
On January 30th, I outlined why Zach Werenski was a good bet to win the Norris Trophy at +175, as there seemed to be a pretty strong case that he had at least been as effective as Cale Makar, who was the betting favourite at that point. In the six games that have followed, Werenski put up eight points while averaging 25:21 of ice time.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have lost two straight games, making Monday’s matchup versus the New York Rangers a borderline must-win given the record the team will need to achieve in order to sneak into the playoffs. I’m expecting Werenski to offer a strong performance in this spot, and he will likely play huge minutes once again in the majority of game scripts.
Backing Werenski to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +105 is also a strong option, but I prefer this option where we are more so targeting his overall offensive impact. Werenski has recorded at least one point and three shots in nine of his last 15 games played. He’s put up 19 total points in that span and averaged 8.06 shot attempts per game.
Though it’s not something their fans are happy to see right now, the Rangers are looking a little more formidable with Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin back in the lineup. Fox has been the team’s most impactful skater by a wide margin this season, while Igor Shesterkin has played to a +16.5 GSAx across 36 games played.
Even still, the Rangers have allowed 30.81 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games and 4.03 xGA/60. Fox and Shesterkin will make generating offence against New York a little more difficult than it has generally been of late, but still, a point and at least three shots have become close to the norm for Werenski recently, and by no means is it a scary enough matchup for me to pass on this look at -105.
Shayne Gostisbehere Over 0.5 Points: -110
Gostisbehere over 0.5 points
The Carolina Hurricanes hold the fifth-highest goals per game in the NHL this season. As has generally been the case during Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure as head coach, they have still scored fewer goals than expected, as they rank third in xGF/60 this season. Their well-balanced offence has really been on fire over the last 12 games leading the Hurricanes to 10-0-2 record while generating 3.85 xGF/60.
While the team receives balanced production from up and down the forward corps, Gostisbehere has been by a wide margin the most consistent producer on the back end. He ranks second on the team with a point-per-game average of 0.98 and has recorded at least one point in 61.9% of games played this season.
Carolina’s blue line has rarely been fully healthy this season, but that will be the case in Monday’s matchup versus the Seattle Kraken. While Gostisbehere likely will not play as many minutes moving forward as he was earlier in the year, he’s being used in a highly offensive role, which should help prevent a drop in production.
Over the last five games, Gostisbehere is getting close to a 70% offensive zone start rate. He’s still quarterbacking the Hurricanes’ top power-play unit, which has succeeded on 29.7% of opportunities over the last 20 games. By no means is Gostisbehere overly dominant defensively, and that seems to be understood by the coaching staff, who are placing him in ideal situations for his strong offensive skill set to be most useful.
Given that Gostisbehere’s production seems sustainable, a price of -110 for him to record a point in a game where Carolina is a -185 favourite and expected to score 3.5 goals on average looks to hold strong value.
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