NHL Player Props Top Betting Picks For January 6

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Tuesday’s 10-game slate.

Best bet-Nikolaj Ehlers/Sebastian Aho 1+ Points Each: +135

It took some time for Ehlers to adjust to his new side, but with 15 points in 17 games since the start of December, he seems to be finding his stride with the Carolina Hurricanes. Part of Ehlers’s improved production comes down to the fact that he’s mainly skated on the first line since Seth Jarvis was injured on December 19th, racking up eight points in eight games in that span.

Jarvis is set to return to the lineup Tuesday, but based on the morning skate, Ehlers is set to remain alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov on the Hurricanes’ top line, as well as on the team’s top power-play unit.

It’s not overly surprising that head coach Rod Brind’Amour has opted to keep Ehlers on the top unit as opposed to going back with Jarvis, Aho, and Svechnikov as a line. The Ehlers-Aho-Svechnikov unit has generated quality scoring chances at an elite rate this season, as in 33.7 minutes of play, the trio has generated 4.99 xGF/60 and has scored 7.13 goals per 60 where it counts.

The Dallas Stars have the talent to finish chances at a high rate, as well as a high-quality goaltending tandem. Yet they are still a solid target for this bet given that they have allowed 3.71 xGA/60 over the last 15 games and do tend to spend a lot of time in the defensive zone despite their strong record. They are giving up a fair share of goals where it counts too, as over the last 10 games, Stars opponents have scored 3.10 goals per game on average.

Aho and Ehlers have both recorded a point in three of the last five games, and given that they are still fully correlated, I see value in riding with that trend at a price of +135 in a very livable matchup.

Best bet-Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +135

There’s been a lot going right for the Buffalo Sabres recently despite the team having its 10-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in Columbus. Among the many factors powering Buffalo’s turnaround has been the fact that its best forward, Thompson, has been exactly that, racking up seven goals and 14 points over the last 11 games.

During those 11 games, Thompson has racked up 39 shots on target and recorded over 3.5 shots on target seven times.

While Thompson’s current linemates, Peyton Krebs and Josh Doan, are not the biggest names, they both have helped drive play effectively and are simply trying to get the team’s most talented scorer as many shots as possible. Doan, in particular, has been an excellent driver this season and has been a key reason for Thompson’s recent outputs.

Thompson recorded a goal, an assist, and five shots on goal when the Sabres faced off against the Vancouver Canucks on December 11th. Vancouver has started to suppress shots at a better rate since that point but still holds a fairly unconvincing roster and Buffalo’s top line should be able to fare well with last change in this matchup on home ice.

While Thompson may not continue to record over 3.5 shots on goal quite as often as we have seen lately, at a price of +135, oddsmakers seem to be banking heavily on the idea that Thompson’s recent volume isn’t sustainable, and I’m happy to bet the over.

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