Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s heavy 10-game Martin Luther King Jr. Day slate.
Best bet—Evgeni Malkin Over 0.5 Points + Over 1.5 Shots Parlay: +125
Malkin parlay
Given what we have seen out of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin over the last two seasons, it feels as though Evgeni Malkin’s play continues to garner less coverage than it probably deserves. When available, Malkin has been excellent this year for the Pittsburgh Penguins, recording 1.09 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NHL this season and isn’t far off Crosby’s mark.
Malkin is just 11 points from moving into 25th on the NHL’s all-time points list, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s able to accomplish the feat in the final nine pre-Olympics games given the level of play he has offered since returning to the lineup.
Malkin has recorded at least one point in 75% of games played this season, which is a good starting point to our case that -155 for him to record a single point is a solid number in any matchup.
Over the last 15 games, the Seattle Kraken hold a 47.08% expected goal share and have allowed 3.69 xGA/60. In that span they hold the NHL’s highest team save percentage, which has helped mask those flaws. It seems unlikely that Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer will continue to play at such a high level though, and this sets up as a quietly solid matchup for Malkin to remain productive.
The Penguins’ power play has succeeded on 25% of opportunities over the last 10 games and should have a good chance of remaining productive in this matchup versus a Kraken penalty kill that owns a success rate of just 68.4% over the same span.
In a small sample of 31.7 minutes, head coach Dan Muse has gotten strong results from his newly formed trio of Malkin, Yegor Chinakhov, and Tommy Novak. The trio has scored 3.93 goals per 60, and Chinakhov in particular seems to have elevated his level of play while skating alongside one of the the better players their country has ever produced.
Backing Malkin to record a point at -155 is an option for those willing to lay a little more juice; as outlined, it would have been a profitable bet at that price this season, and Malkin looks to be in strong form and this is a favourable matchup. I prefer adding the over 1.5 shots leg to push the price to +125, though, as the Kraken have allowed 29.96 SA/60 over the last 10 games, while Malkin has averaged 5.2 attempts per game over his last 10 contests.
Best bet—Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +135
Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal
No skater in the NHL has attempted more shots per 60 than Gauthier this season, and he ranks second in the league in shots on goal per 60 with 12.95. Online sportbooks are obviously aware that he is a volume shooter, as he’s one of the few skaters still sporting a betting total of 3.5 shots on goal, but considering the price of +135, Monday’s matchup sets up as a good opportunity to back him in this market.
Gauthier missed Tuesday’s matchup versus the Dallas Stars due to illness and then ultimately played in Friday’s matchup versus the Los Angeles Kings after being listed as a game-time decision, which likely came down to the fact that the Anaheim Ducks were without several key forwards, including Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry.
Gauthier played just 8:54 on Friday, but recorded three shots on goal before recording four shots on goal across 16:43 the following night.
We aren’t going to pour too much into the game logs here. As outlined, nobody in the NHL attempts more shots per 60 than Gauthier, but at times his usage has held back his overall volume this season.
With Terry and Carlsson still sidelined on Saturday Gauthier skated on the Ducks’ top line and top power-play unit, and when he is in those roles, prices in the +130 range for over 3.5 shots on goal should prove profitable.
A matchup versus the New York Rangers, who are without two key defenders, Adam Fox and Carson Soucy, sets up as a good time to bet on Gauthier’s shot volume. New York has allowed 29.04 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games.
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