NHL Best Player Prop Bets For December 18

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 10-game slate.

Best bet-Frank Nazar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +175

Due to Connor Bedard’s injury, Nazar has been elevated onto the Chicago Blackhawks’ top line. In what may prove to be an improved role for shot volume, he has recorded six shots on goal from 11 attempts in the first two games of Bedard’s absence.

While it seems plausible that Nazar may average more attempts on goal per 60 while playing alongside Andre Burakovsky and Tyler Bertuzzi on the top line, he’s averaged 19:36 of ice time in the first two games of Bedard’s absence, and it seems likely that he will continue to garner greater usage.

The Montreal Canadiens have allowed 28.43 shots against per 60 over the last 15 games and are a better-than-average target for this prop. And though the Canadiens do give up a fairly high amount of shots against, they are heavy -185 favourites in Thursday’s matchup, so there’s a good chance we get a game script where head coach Jeff Blashill deploys his top unit heavily later on in this matchup to try and chase some offence.

So while it’s a tiny sample size of two games in which Nazar has had a greater output of shots on target with Bedard sidelined, it looks wise to try and buy into this trend while the price is still up at +155 for Nazar to record three shots on target.

Even if Nazar doesn’t ultimately end up recording greater shot volume over a larger sample of games without Bedard, he’s still recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in eight of his last 15 games played, suggesting +175 is a pretty strong price in a favourable matchup.

Best bet-Alexis Lafreniere Over 0.5 Points: +125

Without overselling Lafreniere’s recent play or offensive upside, a price of +125 for the former first overall pick to record one point in a strong matchup versus the St. Louis Blues is pretty enticing.

Lafreniere is currently skating on the Rangers’ top line alongside two red-hot offensive skaters in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, who have combined for 41 points over the Rangers’ last 20 games. Obviously targeting Panarin or Zibanejad to record points is an obvious option, but they are priced at -210 and -150, respectively, to record a point in Thursday’s matchup, and this looks like a sharper way to target the Rangers’ top unit in what looks to be a pretty good spot for production.

Especially seeing as Lafreniere is currently skating on the Rangers” top power-play unit, which has not often been the case this season and was rarely the case last season.

The Blues will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after grinding out a 1-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets Wednesday evening. Though Wednesday’s strong defensive showing proves that head coach Jim Montgomery’s side has not thrown in the towel just yet, it’s certainly an outlier performance relative to most of what we have seen from St. Louis recently, and it came with Joel Hofer in goal, who has significantly outperformed Jordan Binnington this season.

Binnington should start Thursday’s game as a result, which is favourable for this prop based on how Binnington has performed so far this season. In what has become a fairly large sample of 21 games played, Binnington holds a -9.8 GSAx rating and a .869 save percentage this season.

From strictly a numbers perspective, this bet is a little iffy, as Lafreniere has just 18 points in 35 games this season and one point in 37% of games played. Considering his current role and this being a matchup where the Rangers should find some offensive success, I’m happy to reach on the offensive upside of Lafreniere in this spot.

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