NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For November 24

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Monday’s seven-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Flyers vs Lightning: Flyers Moneyline: +150

The Tampa Bay Lightning have lost just three times since October 23rd, and a win in Monday’s matchup coupled with a loss from the Detroit Red Wings would put them atop the Atlantic Division, which was where I predicted they would finish entering the season. Though I’d hate to be wrong once again in attempting to fade a team that I was high on in two straight articles, a price of +150 to back the Philadelphia Flyers in Monday’s matchup looks quite appealing.

The Lightning were outshot 32-16 on Saturday versus the Capitals, and Washington led 4.62 to 2.62 in expected goal share. Part of that came down to the leading game script, but it was still far from an impressive showing from a depleted Lightning side despite the winning result.

Tampa Bay will be without at least two more key skaters in this matchup, as both Brayden Point and Erik Cernak suffered injuries Saturday and have been confirmed out by coach Jon Cooper, while Nikita Kucherov also left Saturday’s game and is listed as day-to-day.

The Lightning have hung in respectably of late while playing without several noteworthy skaters, including Victor Hedman, but with Point and Cernak added to the IR at a minimum, the team’s lineup is starting to look drastically less formidable than usual, which will obviously be especially true if Kucherov also misses this game.

The Flyers, meanwhile, have looked quite respectable this season playing under head coach Rick Tocchet. We don’t need to oversell their offensive play for the sake of this pick given the +150 price tag, but their defensive play and overall level of compete has helped them earn a record of 11-6-3.

Over the last 10 games, the Flyers hold a 48.36% expected goal share and a record of 5-3-2. They have obviously overachieved to some extent, and it may be fair to view them as somewhat of a regression candidate moving forward, but they have been solid enough to make me think they can hang around in this matchup versus a heavily depleted Lightning roster.

If Dan Vladar is to start for the Flyers, they appear to hold plenty of value at +150, but even if it is Samuel Ersson who seems more likely to start, I’m still happy to take a shot at that number.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals

Blue Jackets moneyline odds	+135
Capitals moneyline odds	–160
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 goals (-120)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Kirill Marchenko left the Blue Jackets morning skate early, and his status for this game is unclear at the time of writing.
• The Capitals continue to look quite strong in even-strength play but are losing the special teams battle quite significantly. Head coach Spencer Carbery made some significant changes to his power-play units and stated that the plan for tonight’s matchup is to use both units quite evenly, and then the likely assumption is the one that appears to be operating more effectively starts to garner greater usage. Jakob Chychrun, Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Ryan Leonard, and Dylan Strome are expected to skate together on one unit. John Carlson, Sonny Milano, Ethen Frank, Anthony Beauvillier, and Connor McMichael are expected to skate on the other unit.
• The name that catches my eye from a player prop perspective based on the expected changes is Ryan Leonard. Leonard has been looking quite dangerous across all strengths of late and has generally been the name that most Capitals observers feel is deserving of more power play minutes this season.
• Logan Thompson has been confirmed as the Capitals’ starter in this matchup and will be looking to bounce back after being pulled in Saturday’s matchup after allowing four goals on six shots. Thompson is currently the betting favourite in a fairly wide-open race for the Vezina Trophy.
• This is the second meeting of the season between these Metropolitan Division rivals. The Capitals won the first meeting, 5-1, in Columbus on October 24th.

Detroit Red Wings vs New Jersey Devils

Red Wings moneyline odds	+115
Devils moneyline odds	-135
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 goals (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• I was personally fairly bullish on the notion that the Devils could tread water effectively with Jack Hughes sidelined, but so far that take has been inaccurate, as they are 1-3-0 since Hughes’ injury and have scored only 1.50 goals per game.
• The Red Wings pulled off an impressive comeback victory over the Blue Jackets Saturday afternoon and are 5-4-1 over the last 10 games. In the previous two seasons, they got off to strong starts before collapsing down the stretch, and whether or not they are able to build on this strong start is an interesting storyline.
• From an analytical perspective, the Red Wings’ strong start does seem to be more legitimate than in years past. Over the last 10 games, they hold a 52.55% expected goal share and continue to look like a more competent defensive team in even-strength play.
• The Devils are expected to start Jacob Markstrom in this matchup. Though Markstrom is expected to be the team’s number-one goaltender on paper, he has been outperformed by Jake Allen so far this season.
• The Devils have been drastically better on home ice this season than on the road, playing to a record of 7-0-1.

St. Louis Blues vs New York Rangers

Blues moneyline odds	+120
Rangers moneyline odds	–140
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-105), Under 5.5 goals (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Rangers enter this matchup looking to snap a four-game losing skid. They return home following a tough three-game Western road trip, in which they collected zero points from matchups versus the Vegas Golden Knights, Utah Mammoth, and Colorado Avalanche.
• New York’s defensive game continues to look quite sound, and both Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick have been sharp in goal, but they continue to look quite flat offensively, and their struggles to score on home ice this season have obviously been well documented.
• The Blues are 4-2-4 over the last 10 games and, despite their disappointing start, are just five points back of the final Western Conference playoff spot.
• Poor goaltending has to be viewed as the greatest reason for the Blues’ ugly results, but Monday’s starter, Joel Hofer, has started to offer better play of late with a .905 save percentage and 2.82 GAA over his last five appearances.
• Rangers Captain J.T. Miller won’t play in this matchup. It’s been speculated that Miller has been playing through an injury this season. Though it’s obviously a big loss in terms of name power, Miller has produced just 12 points in 22 games this season, and the Rangers have generally been outplayed in his minutes.

Florida Panthers vs Nashville Predators

Panthers moneyline odds	-135
Predators moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 goals (-120)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• They have played three less games than the Calgary Flames, but the Predators now rank 32nd in the NHL with a record of 6-11-4. They are just 2-6-2 over the last 10 games.
• Roman Josi returned to the Predators lineup on Saturday versus the overpowering Colorado Avalanche, and generated four shots on goal in 19:40 of ice time.
• The Panthers remain without Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen, among several others, and it’s possible that they will be without Aaron Ekblad in this matchup, as he’s day-to-day with an illness.
• At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Sergei Bobrovsky or Daniil Tarasov will start in goal for the Panthers. As we have discussed in these articles previously, Tarasov has been rock-solid this season, and it currently does not appear to be fair to downgrade Florida’s chances in his starts compared to when Bobrovsky is in. Tarasov holds a .910 save percentage and 2.34 GAA in six appearances this season.

Ottawa Senators vs Los Angeles Kings

Senators moneyline odds	+120
Kings moneyline odds	–140
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (+105), Under 5.5 goals (-125)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• A price of -125 for this game to feature under 5.5 makes this one of the lower totals we have seen this season. These two sides rank second and third in xGA/60 in the month of November.
• Senators captain Brady Tkachuk is expected to return at some point during the team’s current seven-game road trip. In his absence the Senators have gone 10-4-4, and Tim Stutzle has put up 20 points in those 18 games.
• The Kings will be looking to snap a three-game losing skid in this matchup. After being historically strong on home ice last season, they are just 1-4-3 on home ice this year.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Utah Mammoth

Golden Knights moneyline odds	-115
Mammoth moneyline odds	-105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 goals (-115)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• My belief is that the ideal points system in the NHL would be three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime/shootout victory, and one point for an overtime/shootout loss. The Knights have proven why eliminating the loser point entirely would be a flaw, because it then places too much onus on the team’s ability to achieve success in the 3-on-3/shootout novelty settlements. The Knights are just 1-8 past regulation this season, and as a result, own a fairly unconvincing record.
• Why is that relevant from a handicapping perspective? Well, the general idea is that 3-on-3 and shootouts are very random, as is proven by oddsmakers’ live betting odds in games going past regulation. If the Knights even held a .500 record past regulation, they would still be getting more credit for a solid start to the year.
• These two sides met in Utah last Thursday and the Knights earned a 4-1 victory.
• Though Utah’s offensive upside looks quite solid on paper, it is just 3-4-3 over the last 10 games and has scored only 2.40 goals per game in that span.