NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 19

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Wednesday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Calgary Flames vs Buffalo Sabres Under 6: -105

This could be a bit of a volatile spot for the Flames, as perhaps there will be some relent in terms of compete level after another frustrating loss last night in Chicago. Still, competing hard and defending respectably have been two hallmarks that have typically seen from head coach Ryan Huska’s side over the last two seasons.

What the Flames cannot do effectively is create high-quality scoring looks, and they also suffer from a distinct lack of finish up and down the lineup. Dating back to the start of last season, the Flames rank dead last in the NHL with a shooting percentage of 7.21%. The gap between Calgary and the 31st-placed Nashville Predators is as wide as the gap between the Predators and the middle of the pack.

The underlying numbers continue to suggest that the Flames are due for positive regression offensively, but it continues to appear that their lack of offensive skill is not accurately quantified by expected metrics. The Flames rank dead last, having scored only 2.10 goals per game this season, and it seems fair to believe that they are the worst offensive team in hockey.

From an analytics perspective, the Flames have been defending quite well recently, and I do agree with the metrics on that front. Over the last 10 games, the Flames have allowed only 2.85 xGA/60, which is the fifth-best mark in the NHL.

If Dustin Wolf was starting in goal we would probably be seeing a total of 5.5 in this matchup, but Devin Cooley has been sharp in a small sample, and I’m happy to back the higher total of 6 as a result. In five appearances this season, Cooley holds a +5.5 GSAx rating and .935 save percentage.

The Sabres, meanwhile, have been playing a much more high-event style of hockey recently than the Flames, but not to the extent that I’m scared off the under in a matchup with a total of six featuring a Flames team that looks likely to feature the lowest-scoring matchups in hockey this season.

Over the last 10 games, the Sabres have allowed 3.65 xGA/60, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL. That’s the concern here, but they also defended quite well in Monday’s win over the Oilers and should hang in respectably in this spot on home ice versus a lethargic Flames offence.

But as outlined, the Flames have defended quite well recently, while Cooley has been razor-sharp in goal. With Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich, Josh Norris, and Jason Zucker all sidelined, the Sabres’ offensive attack does not look all that threatening on paper, and the Flames should be able to hold them to reasonable output in this spot.

Edmonton Oilers @ Washington Capitals

Oilers moneyline odds	+100
Capitals moneyline odds	-120
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• These teams are at polar ends of the spectrum in terms of strengths and weaknesses this season.
• Head coach Spencer Carbery’s Capitals have featured fundamentally sharp play at even strength, powered by a deep defensive core, and have received tremendous play in goal from Logan Thompson. Their lack of truly elite offensive talent has been a concern, though, and their special teams have been a disaster.
• The Oilers, meanwhile, have looked relatively dysfunctional and have leaned on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s spectacular offensive play to mask an unconvincing overall process, while neither Stuart Skinner nor Calvin Pickard has been overly sharp in goal.
• The Oilers were embarrassed by the Sabres on Monday night, falling 5-1 on a night where Stuart Skinner actually made the saves that he is expected to make. They moved to 4-7-2 on the road this season with the loss.
• Oilers winger Zach Hyman has recorded one assist in his first two games of the season. Based on today’s morning skate, it appears that Hyman will play on the third line alongside Trent Frederic and Adam Henrique in Wednesday’s matchup, as Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch looks to kickstart what has been a highly ineffective third unit.
• Jack Roslovic will overtake Hyman’s vacated spot on the first line. Roslovic has been on fire recently, with 12 points over his last 10 games played. He scored a goal in Monday’s matchup versus the Sabres and had some nice setups to linemate Matthew Savoie.
• Connor McMichael has skated on the Capitals’ top line alongside Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome over the last two games and has looked quite dangerous while registering three points and seven shots on goal.

Carolina Hurricanes @ Minnesota Wild

Hurricanes moneyline odds	-165
Wild moneyline odds	+140
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	9:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Oddsmakers likely power-rank the Hurricanes as the second-best team in the NHL currently (based on much more than standings, where the Hurricanes happen to rank second). Carolina is 7-2-1 over the last 10 and, as has generally been the case during head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure, holds excellent underlying results in that span.
• Perhaps most impressive about Carolina’s start is that it has been playing without top defender Jaccob Slavin, who will remain sidelined in this matchup.
• The Wild have started their five-game homestand 3-0-1 and have allowed only four goals against in those matchups. I was a believer that the Wild would find their way back to the playoffs despite the strength of the Central Division because of their strong defensive play, and they have looked sharper in that regard recently.
• The Hurricanes’ offence looks much more formidable this season than in years past, though, and they have scored 3.63 goals per game this season, which ranks second in the NHL.
• The Wild hold fairly significant home and road splits so far this season, as they are 6-3-3 on home ice compared to 3-4-1 on the road.
• Jesper Wallstedt has been confirmed as the Wild’s starting goaltender. Wallstedt entered the league as a highly touted goaltending prospect and has lived up to the hype this season, playing to a .924 save percentage and 2.10 GAA in six appearances.

Boston Bruins @ Anaheim Ducks

Bruins moneyline odds	+145
Ducks moneyline odds	-170
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• There continues to be a large divide between the way oddsmakers view the Boston Bruins and their placement in the NHL standings. That point looks especially true in Wednesday’s matchup, as oddsmakers have also seemingly been low on the Ducks relative to their record based on recent prices for their matchups versus the Winnipeg Jets, Detroit Red Wings, and Minnesota Wild.
• The Bruins are 8-2-0 over their last 10 games, but rank 25th in expected goal share in that span. The perceived strength of their roster based on previous seasons is one reason they are hard to believe in, and they do not profile as a team likely to finish in the league’s top five in shooting percentage.
• The Ducks are 6-1-0 on home ice this season, while the Bruins are 4-5-0 on the road.
• Number-one defender Charlie McAvoy’s absence is another key reason the Bruins are significant underdogs in this matchup. Viktor Arvidsson, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt and Jordan Harris are also on the Bruins IR.

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